WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Conditional brief tornado threat in FL Panhandle given strong low level shear on Thursday . Main limits are poor MLLRs, and elevated storms if updrafts sustain. Would heavily doubt the threat but just in case
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Severe Weather 2025
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
- Moderator
- #7,762
For Thursday...
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
SPC did note the poor lapse rates which may limit any initiation that far east down in Dixie. Seems to be theme of winter, poor mid level lapse rates
CheeselandSkies
Member
Not necessarily 2025-specific but was bored so made a YouTube "short" compilation of some of the better CG lightning strikes I've caught on video:
GFS wants to have near record warm Christmas for both Tupelo and Aberdeen.
Of course, main reason why Aberdeen has had more warm Christmas Days than Tupelo is because it's further south.
Warmest Christmas Day's for Tupelo (since 1933):
77 in 1942
78 in 1987
79 in 2021
Warmest Christmas Day's for Aberdeen (since 1899):
75 in 1922
77 in 1942
79 in 1964
78 in 1987
Which is why I keep asking myself when the severe weather threat will arise because there's gonna be one with temperatures like this. Either around or just after Christmas.
More on that aspect after I see the 12z Euro.
Of course, main reason why Aberdeen has had more warm Christmas Days than Tupelo is because it's further south.
Warmest Christmas Day's for Tupelo (since 1933):
77 in 1942
78 in 1987
79 in 2021
Warmest Christmas Day's for Aberdeen (since 1899):
75 in 1922
77 in 1942
79 in 1964
78 in 1987
Which is why I keep asking myself when the severe weather threat will arise because there's gonna be one with temperatures like this. Either around or just after Christmas.
More on that aspect after I see the 12z Euro.
Attachments
CheeselandSkies
Member
12Z GFS has a nice-looking trough for the week after Christmas, but it's still in fantasy land. Pattern has been reasonably active but it seems any portrayal of an organized, negatively tilted wave has been a one or two-run anomaly for at least the past six weeks; with in reality them nearly all ejecting east of the Rockies strung out/disjointed and positively tilted.
Even with the nice-looking system upstairs and at the surface, verbatim the run portrays the pesky lapse rate issues leading to zilch for instability despite warm sector dewpoints into the upper 50s/low 60s with decent depth.
Even with the nice-looking system upstairs and at the surface, verbatim the run portrays the pesky lapse rate issues leading to zilch for instability despite warm sector dewpoints into the upper 50s/low 60s with decent depth.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
If we get just enough CAPE tmrw around the Nashville area or near, with the shear in place, you can never doubt a random spinup. Even 100-200 CAPE will do it, we had a QLCS about Pittsburgh in November last year that SPAMMED circulations left and right. And o believe it was only 200 CAPE. Most of it concentrated in the lowest 3km, leading to far more efficient stretching.
tennessee storm chaser
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We are entering time year we’re you just don’t have to have a ton of instability anyways . , these winter setuos
Are different
joshoctober16
Member
random tornado warning rigth now.
Yeah, ok then
- Moderator
- #7,771
Is there snow on the ground up there where those tornado warnings are at?
- Moderator
- #7,772
Wasn't expecting to be in a 2% tor risk today, but alrighty then.
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
occasional damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur
through this evening across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi
Valley into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast, and late tonight across
portions of coastal North Carolina.
...Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast...
A pronounced mid/upper-level shortwave trough with attendant 70-90
kt mid-level jet will advance quickly eastward today across the
Upper Midwest into the MS/OH/TN Valleys. An associated deep surface
low over northern MN this morning is forecast to continue developing
northeastward into Ontario/Quebec through tonight, with a trailing
cold front forecast to sweep east-southeastward over much of the
mid/lower MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys and Southeast. Low-level
moisture return ahead of the cold front remains quite limited,
except for parts of MS/AL where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are
beginning to spread inland. Even so, wind fields remain quite
favorable for thunderstorm organization, with ample low-level and
deep-layer shear present. Current expectations are for a low-topped
line of convection to further develop along the cold front through
this afternoon/evening. Although instability is expected to remain
minimal with northward extent into the OH/TN Valleys, there is still
potential for strong to severe gusts that will be convectively
enhanced beyond the already strong background gradient wind field.
Some chance for a tornado may also exist across parts of MS/AL where
greater instability/low-level moisture will reside. Given latest
observational and guidance trends, a Marginal Risk has been included
where the best potential for occasional strong to damaging winds is
apparent.
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
occasional damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur
through this evening across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi
Valley into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast, and late tonight across
portions of coastal North Carolina.
...Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast...
A pronounced mid/upper-level shortwave trough with attendant 70-90
kt mid-level jet will advance quickly eastward today across the
Upper Midwest into the MS/OH/TN Valleys. An associated deep surface
low over northern MN this morning is forecast to continue developing
northeastward into Ontario/Quebec through tonight, with a trailing
cold front forecast to sweep east-southeastward over much of the
mid/lower MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys and Southeast. Low-level
moisture return ahead of the cold front remains quite limited,
except for parts of MS/AL where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are
beginning to spread inland. Even so, wind fields remain quite
favorable for thunderstorm organization, with ample low-level and
deep-layer shear present. Current expectations are for a low-topped
line of convection to further develop along the cold front through
this afternoon/evening. Although instability is expected to remain
minimal with northward extent into the OH/TN Valleys, there is still
potential for strong to severe gusts that will be convectively
enhanced beyond the already strong background gradient wind field.
Some chance for a tornado may also exist across parts of MS/AL where
greater instability/low-level moisture will reside. Given latest
observational and guidance trends, a Marginal Risk has been included
where the best potential for occasional strong to damaging winds is
apparent.
- Moderator
- #7,773
Tornado warning in IL/KY. My computer is having issues posting pictures atm, but at the last update the 2% was expanded farther east a little.
Ledian
Member
The cell near Calhoun City is trying to do something...first one in MS i'm keeping an eye on today.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I had a feeling this line would do some shenanigans because it's winter and there's extremely strong low level kinematics. My main concern is the prefrontal cells in N MS rn for a tornado threat if they can sustain. This cell in N MS catches my eye...take a look. The file won't load but it's near Calhoun City and has a small BWER on it
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
First time being beat to it LOL
- Moderator
- #7,777
I hate not being able to post pics, so if one of you could post the recent MSD. Possible tornado watch coming for east MS/west AL with a 60% chance of a watch.
Kds86z
Member
- Moderator
- #7,779
- Moderator
- #7,780
Tornado watch until 9 pm.