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2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

I can’t believe it’s almost time for this thread to end. It’s been a long year.
 
Atlantic said:
I can’t believe it’s almost time for this thread to end. It’s been a long year.
Click to expand...
December 11th will mark one year since I started this thread, because I started the 2025 thread a few weeks in advance
 
We have Invest 99P in the Central South Pacific, which the JTWC is monitoring with a low chance of transitioning from a subtropical cyclone to a tropical cyclone currently.

Invest 93W in the WPAC is up to Medium chance of development by the JTWC. JMA (the official RSMC for the WPAC) has been tracking it as a tropical depression for a few days now. Should it enter the Philippines AoR, it will receive the next name on the list there, which is Wilma.

The next international name in the WPAC is Nokaen
 
Don't know if anyone has made mention of this yet, but if we go the rest of this month without another category 5 in the Western Pacific, it'll be the first time that the Western Pacific has had just 1 category 5 Super Typhoon since 2020.

With a total ACE of 187.1 (normal being 288.2) now, the western pacific has had the lowest ACE total since 2022. 2022 ACE total was 163.2
 
Invest 93W has entered the Philippines area of Responsibility and it has received the Philippine name Wilma while retaining a Medium Chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours by the JTWC.

Now two names remain on the Philippines list: Yasmin (the replacement of Haiyan 2013’s Philippine name Yolanda) and Zoraida and then it’s to the auxiliary Philippine list.

The next international name in the WPAC is Nokaen
IMG_1860.jpeg
 
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In the Central South Pacific basin, we have a sloppy Invest 99P (called a subtropical storm by the JTWC), but the cyclone failed to transition into a fully tropical system. The system was recognized as Tropical Disturbance 01F by the Fiji Meteorological Service (RSMC Nadi).

However, behind it is another low, Invest 90P, which has quickly consolidated and went from just barely being noted yesterday as a low-chance invest to a medium-chance invest this morning to a High chance invest now. It is the first high chance invest in the southern pacific for the 2025-26 SHEM cyclone season.

IMG_1890.gif
WTPS21 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S 151.7W TO 19.6S 144.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8S 151.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.5S 152.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 151.4W, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH OF BORA BORA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT
AND MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH HAS
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION IS FLARING OVER
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, DEVELOPING INTO NASCENT BANDING FEATURES AND
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 041156Z NOAA-20 ATMS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTED A SMALL REGION OF CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A SHALLOW BANDING
FEATURE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH, BEGINNING TO WRAP INWARD TOWARDS THE
DEVELOPING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR ANALYSIS WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OF 10-15 KTS, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 29 C.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL TRACK RAPIDLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF 99P OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. ANALYSIS SHOWS 90P TO BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MODELS AGREE THAT 90P WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTH OF TAHITI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
052100Z.//
NNNN
 
Invest 90P has become Tropical Cyclone 06P, the first tropical cyclone in the Southern Pacific Ocean for the 2025-26 season.

IMG_1901.jpeg
IMG_1900.gif
 
It’s taken several days, but Invest 93W (Tropical Depression Wilma in the Philippines) has finally been upgraded to a High chance invest by the JTWC.
IMG_1926.gif
WTPN21 PGTW 051900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 126.2E TO 11.0N 116.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9N 126.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.4N 127.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 126.1E, APPROXIMATELY 156 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR THE CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051346Z ASCAT REVEALS 15-20 KNOT WINDS
STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL MOVE WEST OVER THE PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL MOVE WEST OVER THE
PHILIPPINES, WITH ECENS SHOWING A HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN THE TWO
MODELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061900Z.//
NNNN
 
Atlantic said:
It’s taken several days, but Invest 93W (Tropical Depression Wilma in the Philippines) has finally been upgraded to a High chance invest by the JTWC.
View attachment 49145
WTPN21 PGTW 051900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 126.2E TO 11.0N 116.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9N 126.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.4N 127.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 126.1E, APPROXIMATELY 156 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR THE CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051346Z ASCAT REVEALS 15-20 KNOT WINDS
STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL MOVE WEST OVER THE PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL MOVE WEST OVER THE
PHILIPPINES, WITH ECENS SHOWING A HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN THE TWO
MODELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061900Z.//
NNNN
Click to expand...
This one failed to become a TC and the TCFA was cancelled and the invest is no longer active.

There really isn’t anything much to track other that has a precursor already active other than Invest 91S (Tropical Low 04U in the Australian Region).

There is two other signals in the SHEM right now:

One is pre-marked Tropical Low 03U by BoM, expected to form in the Banda Sea or Timor Sea.

The other is pre-marked Tropical Low 04U which is expected to form near the boundary between the Australian Region and the South Pacific.
 
Invest 91S (Tropical Low 04U in the Australian Region) has been upgraded to a High chance invest within the Jakartan AoR of the Australian Region. Should it be named within the Jakartan AoR of the Australian Region, the next name there is Bakung. Should it emerge into the main Australian Region and be named, the next name is Grant.
IMG_2750.gif
WTXS21 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.3S 101.8E TO 9.8S 97.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.3S 101.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.7S 100.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3S 101.3E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AN 110223Z METOP-C 25KM
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS ELEVATED WINDS (25-30 KTS) IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WHILE 91S HAS GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, IT IS CURRENTLY BEING RESTRICTED ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON A STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRANSITS SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY
FROM SUMATRA AND CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120900Z.//
NNNN
 
On this day one year ago I started this thread, not anticipating that it would become such a long thread.

I’ve been thinking about continuing this thread as just the main global tropical cyclone thread instead of starting a new one for 2026, because that would mean less threads cluttering the tropics section of this site.
 
Atlantic said:
Invest 91S (Tropical Low 04U in the Australian Region) has been upgraded to a High chance invest within the Jakartan AoR of the Australian Region. Should it be named within the Jakartan AoR of the Australian Region, the next name there is Bakung. Should it emerge into the main Australian Region and be named, the next name is Grant.
View attachment 49172
WTXS21 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.3S 101.8E TO 9.8S 97.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.3S 101.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.7S 100.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3S 101.3E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AN 110223Z METOP-C 25KM
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS ELEVATED WINDS (25-30 KTS) IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WHILE 91S HAS GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, IT IS CURRENTLY BEING RESTRICTED ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON A STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRANSITS SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY
FROM SUMATRA AND CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120900Z.//
NNNN
Click to expand...
We are watching Invest 92S to the west of 91S, which has the potential to crossover from the SWIO and into the Jakartan AoR of the Australian Region and interact via fujiwara effect with 91S. It may be marked as Tropical Low 06U soon once BoM has more confidence on it.

East of 91S is Invest 93S (Tropical Low 03U in the Australian Region), which is also being watched for the potential to develop into a TC.

Former pre-marked Tropical Low 04U from the Australian Region has been redesignated as Tropical Disturbance 03F by FMS in the South Pacific. Should 04U/03F become a TC, the next name in the South Pacific is Urmil
 
This is the first time (other than the Jakartan TCWC) I’ve seen a RSMC mention the JTWC and the JTWC’s invest numbers in their summaries, which is what Meteo-France has done regarding the JTWC’s Invest 91S and Invest 92S. I’ve already done you the reader a favor and highlighted the mentions of 91S and 92S in the screenshot below.
IMG_2756.jpeg
 
Finally, here is the JTWC map showing High chance Invest 91S (92S and 93S have not been noted in their summaries yet, which the two invests are on either side of 91S but well away from 91S for now)
IMG_2757.jpeg
 
We are likely to get Tropical Cyclone 07S here soon, as the 18Z ATCF update puts Invest 91S’s intensity at 35 kts (40 mph)
IMG_2772.jpeg
IMG_2773.jpeg
Since it seems likely that 91S will likely form within the Jakartan AoR part of the Australian Region, I expect this system to receive the name Bakung.
 
Atlantic said:
We are likely to get Tropical Cyclone 07S here soon, as the 18Z ATCF update puts Invest 91S’s intensity at 35 kts (40 mph)
View attachment 49176
View attachment 49177
Since it seems likely that 91S will likely form within the Jakartan AoR part of the Australian Region, I expect this system to receive the name Bakung.
Click to expand...
It becomes official, 91S has become Tropical Cyclone 07S
IMG_2774.png
 
BKMG (the Jakartan TCWC for the Australian Region) has named Tropical Cyclone 07S as Tropical Cyclone Bakung
IMG_2812.jpeg
 
This is apparently a 45 kt TS
IMG_2883.png
Nice job JTWC
 
The 2025-26 SHEM cyclone season has been acting a bit similar to the 1996-97 season so far (that season saw the JTWC issue warnings for a record 38 tropical cyclones in the SHEM), if the fact that July, August, September and October (every preseason month) seeing a TC each like the 1996-97 season is anything to go by, we are at 7 designated cyclones in the SHEM already, ahead of the 2022-23 (5 cyclones) , 2023-24 (3 cyclones) and last season (4 cyclones) in total cyclones designated by now.

The 1996-97 season would reach 15 designated cyclones by December 31st, and was already at 11 designated cyclones by this date in time, so the 2025-26 season is only 4 cyclones behind as of now with a High chance invest in the South Pacific by the JTWC attempting to become 08P potentially here soon.

We also have TL 07U to watch near the top end of Australia, Invest 93S (TL 03U) and Invest 92S to watch, so it has been a busy start to the 2025-26 season in the Southern Hemisphere so far.

IMG_2899.gif


WTPS21 PGTW 140100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5S 167.9E TO 14.4S 170.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 132330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7S 168.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.5S 164.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 168.1E, APPROXIMATELY 363 NM NORTH
OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A
132123Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SWATH OF 30-35 KT WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WEAKER WINDS (15-20 KTS) ON THE WESTERN SIDE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF
10 TO 15 KTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW 94P FURTHER CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WHILE
TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150100Z.//
NNNN
 
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