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Severe Weather Threat November 24-25, 2025

Storms on that line have indeed started to break apart. Nothing impressive rotation-wise yet, but will need to watch these as they move eastward, and encounter smaller cells to the south/east. CAMs modelled those merging with this line to produce severe storms.
1764101545363.png
 
Clancy said:
Storms on that line have indeed started to break apart. Nothing impressive rotation-wise yet, but will need to watch these as they move eastward, and encounter smaller cells to the south/east. CAMs modelled those merging with this line to produce severe storms.
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@MichelleH I would like to nominate @Clancy to be a moderator or SOMETHING lol

Consistent high quality posts man….
 
Clancy said:
Storms on that line have indeed started to break apart. Nothing impressive rotation-wise yet, but will need to watch these as they move eastward, and encounter smaller cells to the south/east. CAMs modelled those merging with this line to produce severe storms.
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I guess another question is WHY are they breaking up? Are they losing strength/steam or are they breaking up for OTHER reasons we dont like?
 
KevinH said:
I guess another question is WHY are they breaking up? Are they losing strength/steam or are they breaking up for OTHER reasons we dont like?
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There's often multiple reasons, but in this case I suspect it's because they're moving into an area of enhanced kinematics, allowing them to better-establish individual updrafts.
1764102389138.png
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Rotation west of hoover Alabama has a bit of a hook on it
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Just went SVR-warned.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
227 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Central Shelby County in central Alabama...
Southeastern Jefferson County in central Alabama...

* Until 315 PM CST.

* At 227 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Birmingham to Splash Adventure to Tannehill
Ironworks State Park, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Birmingham, Hoover, Vestavia Hills, Alabaster, Bessemer, Homewood,
Pelham, Mountain Brook, Trussville, Helena, Hueytown, Irondale,
Leeds, Fairfield, Chelsea, Pleasant Grove, Tarrant, Midfield,
Brighton, and Indian Springs Village.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for central and
west central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3328 8665 3323 8703 3325 8703 3325 8707
3328 8707 3328 8709 3329 8709 3329 8711
3353 8703 3361 8658
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 250DEG 32KT 3351 8693 3337 8702 3326 8707

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
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Inflow notch SSW of Bessemer is concerning. Could be teeing up for something here soon.
1764102607854.png
 
Is there a weak tornado OTG over Greenwood? There's a small CC drop cooresponding to an extremely small velocity couplet but it could be several things.
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 641...

VALID 252036Z - 252230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 641 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE REMAIN
POSSIBLE WHERE SURFACE HEATING/LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
EVENTUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

DISCUSSION...OVERALL TRENDS FOR STORMS WITHIN WW 641 THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE BEEN FOR RELATIVELY BRIEF INTENSIFICATION. A FEW CELLS HAVE
CONTINUED TO SHOW WEAK LOW-LEVEL ROTATION, BUT THIS HAS ALSO BEEN
RATHER TRANSIENT. LOCAL VAD DATA SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY, BUT IS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR BRIEF TORNADO
POTENTIAL. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED WHERE SURFACE HEATING
HAS BEEN GREATEST: SOUTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA. STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
SOME INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. BEYOND THAT POINT,
DIMINISHING SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

..WENDT.. 11/25/2025
 
The storms over Central AL remain well-behaved for now. Educated guess is that the weak LLLRs over the area with nominally-highest parameters are keeping the threat low but not zero. Still wouldn't rule out some surprises in East Alabama. Instability is surprisingly strong over parts of Central-to-Southern AL this afternoon.
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Kds86z said:
Dang. Congrats on helping 2025 beat 2024 with number of ef2. 140 for 2025, 2024 139
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I actually said yesterday to my friends and family that I had a feeling there was gonna be a cell that goes tornado warned through Katy/Bridgeland, then produces a tornado over Cypress and continues up to the Spring/Klein area. And sure enough… I was legitimately spot on.
 
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