Hurricane Melissa

[tornado examiner]

They do be hopefully unintentionally toying with us on getting this thing the intensity rating it deserves.

 

[andyhb]

They appear to be trying to find a flight path around the intense convection on the east side of the CDO, which is likely making for a dangerous flight on initial approach.

 

[N0mz]

Looks like they turned around. We're so back.

 

[TornadoFan]

Still alot of lightning activity in the eyewall.

 

[tornado examiner]

They appear to be trying to find a flight path around the intense convection on the east side of the CDO, which is likely making for a dangerous flight on initial approach.

Did they really have to scare us with a full 180 though? Lol.

 

[slenker]

Safety is first and foremost. If they don’t like what they’re looking at, then I support their decision to not go in and look for an alternate route. There’s ways we can analyze a storm if we know recon didn’t hit the eye at peak intensity, anyways. Look at Milton.

I also seem to recall that during the HH flight of Hugo at peak intensity, they came frighteningly close to crashing because of an extremely violent mesovortex.

 

[tornado examiner]

the storms peak appears stable and not under threat of weakening for awhile.

When recon does get in my bet is a 180mph 910 peak. I don’t think the eye is small enough for anything higher.

 

[Blountwolf]

Another of the many insane images from this year.

 

[tornado examiner]

Okay, recon should be in the eye by 1:15 am. Maybe.

 

[tornado examiner]

Another of the many insane images from this year.
View attachment 47979

The eye is drying out and the eye wall is slowly constricting. It's still strengthening slowly but surely.

 

[tornado examiner]

Remember this is a storm so violent it gave the hurricane hunters second thoughts.

 

[tornado examiner]

Speak of the devil they made another sharp turn to figure out a different angle of attack.

 

[lake.effect]

As we wait for recon to enter the core (if that ever happens), it's worth noting that Melissa appears to have started the northern turn.

 

[Blountwolf]

Straight up - I wouldn't fly into this. I'd love to fly in to one with them, but not this.

 

[lake.effect]

Recon finding 4-5+ inch/hour rain rates in the outer bands already, yeesh

 

[tornado examiner]

Omg they’re almost in the eye wall. (watch them miss center again every time)

But anyways here we go, finally. Cat 5 Data time.

 

[lake.effect]

Most anticipated recon since Iota? I think so...

 

[tornado examiner]

Everyone make their predictions.

 

[lake.effect]

My prediction:

155kt / 912mb

 

[N0mz]

145/920