Enhanced Fujita Ratings Debate Thread

[tornado examiner]

You summed it up perfectly.

Year after year, waiting for the streak to break. Candidate after candidate, coming close, but no cigar. Theory after theory, about how the next EF5 would hit the Jackson CWA or a big city or wherever.

And then, suddenly, Grand Forks releases a statement, and the longest streak between two 5s is suddenly over.

Like, we expected the next EF5 to crash through Oklahoma City or Jackson, and be the costliest tornado ever, and then there was a rural tornado that just so happened to strike a train at peak intensity and the 12 year streak literally just ended. If that doesn't prove how nature is random, I don't know what does.

Everyone on this site was so verbally angry when Mayfield and other tornadoes from that day were shafted of the rating they should have gotten.
And the near universal backlash across the entirety of social media is likely part of what caused this new “precedent” to happen.
What bluntly pointed out how flawed our methods for accessing tornado intensity are.
We were all there, and it was a mess.

 

[SilentShadow87]

I'm still working on my list of EF4-EF5 tornadoes during the drought, and I'm sort of on the fence about whether Mount Juliet (Nashville) 2020 should have been rated EF4. This damage to one of the elementary schools has an expected value of 176 mph, but there's no explanation for why they went with the lower bound 150 mph estimate in the DAT, NCDC report, or the main NWS website, so I can't really tell if that's warranted or not. If anyone has any more information, please let me know.



But I have to say, the Carroll County tornado has to be the winner of the "underrated tornado of the outbreak" award. This house was rated 125 mph EF2 (another case of surveyors actually going outside the bounds of the EF scale itself to lowball a rating). I honestly have to wonder how much of that has to do with the fact that the tornado was unwarned.

 

[SilentShadow87]

"...nor have there been as many casualties anywhere remotely close to the storms over a decade ago."
Is that a result of better warnings or weaker storms? I can't check right now if years in the early 2010s (excluding 2011, obviously) were deadlier than nowadays but it's probably only a marginal decrease.

I know I'm digging up an old comment here, but I also have to add that even though the number of deadly tornadoes has gone down, the numbers of casualties in tornadoes that have been deadly has stayed pretty much exactly the same. In fact, the number of tornado-related deaths seems to have increased since the second half of the 2010s. Both Mayfield and London would make the top 10 deadliest tornadoes of the 2010s. Mayfield was the fourth-deadliest tornado in the US in the past 60 years, with all of the top 3 being in 2011.

But yeah, to answer the question, the deadliest tornadoes by year over the past 15 years are:

2010 - Yazoo City, MS - 10 deaths
2011 - Joplin, MO - 158 deaths
2012 - Henryville, IN - 11 deaths
2013 - Moore, OK - 24 deaths
2014 - Vilonia, AR - 16 deaths
2015 - Rowlett, TX - 10 deaths
2016 - Funing, China - 98 deaths
2016 - Rosalie, AL - 4 deaths (deadliest in US)
2017 - Adel, GA - 11 deaths
2018 - Baltimore, MD - 2 deaths
2019 - Bharbalia, Nepal - >28 deaths
2019 - Beauregard, AL - 23 deaths (deadliest in US)
2020 - Cookeville, TN - 19 deaths
2021 - Mayfield, KY - 58 deaths
2022 - Winterset, IA - 6 deaths
2023 - Rolling Fork, MS - 17 deaths
2024 - Fort Pierce, FL - 6 deaths

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

EF3, 150 mile-per-hour damage from the Gum Springs, Georgia EF3 on April 27, 2011:

FR12 and presumably DOD8 was applied; if I was surveying this I probably would have applied EXP DOD9 to the fourth house from right in the center-right, which appears to have been swept completely off its foundation unless there's a camera illusion going on.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

Also, has anybody done calculations on the 5-ton Komatsu bulldozer that was rolled by Cordova? Google gave me two estimates (110 mph and 400 mph), both of which are likely wrong. The NWS rated that specific damage 180 mph but I doubt they looked hard into it.

Apparently this tornado also lifted an entire storm shelter out of the ground and smashed it back down, although no image is attached to that DI.

 

[TH2002]

EF3, 150 mile-per-hour damage from the Gum Springs, Georgia EF3 on April 27, 2011:
View attachment 47611
FR12 and presumably DOD8 was applied; if I was surveying this I probably would have applied EXP DOD9 to the fourth house from right in the center-right, which appears to have been swept completely off its foundation unless there's a camera illusion going on.

The home was indeed swept clean, though it was unanchored. Still, I would have probably gone low-end EF4 based on the DOD and spotty debarking though.

 

[buckeye05]

Also, has anybody done calculations on the 5-ton Komatsu bulldozer that was rolled by Cordova? Google gave me two estimates (110 mph and 400 mph), both of which are likely wrong. The NWS rated that specific damage 180 mph but I doubt they looked hard into it.

Apparently this tornado also lifted an entire storm shelter out of the ground and smashed it back down, although no image is attached to that DI.

Entire storm shelter out of the ground? Are you absolutely sure about that? I vaguely recall Cordova doing something to a storm shelter but I don’t remember anything quite that extreme. I do know Rainsville heaved a fiberglass one slightly out of the ground though, and a concrete storm shelter had its concrete roof slab torn off in the Phil Campbell area. There are photos of those two instances of damage.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

Entire storm shelter out of the ground? Are you absolutely sure about that? I vaguely recall Cordova doing something to a storm shelter but I don’t remember anything quite that extreme. I do know Rainsville heaved a fiberglass one slightly out of the ground though, and there is a photo of that.

Maybe not out of the ground, but the DI did indicate something involved a storm shelter being pushed upward.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

Frame of Mobile home blown away, cinder block home completely destroyed, 1 car was tossed 130 yards, one storm shelter was lifted up and collapsed on the people taking shelter. East of that, was just significant tree damage.

 

[buckeye05]

Frame of Mobile home blown away, cinder block home completely destroyed, 1 car was tossed 130 yards, one storm shelter was lifted up and collapsed on the people taking shelter. East of that, was just significant tree damage.

Ok I see, I do remember that. The issue is you verbatim said “completely out of the ground”. That description is adding details and hyperbole that do not exist in the survey info. For all we know it could be describing one of those above ground shelters, or just the roof of the shelter.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

Ok I see, I do remember that. The issue is you verbatim said “completely out of the ground”. That description is adding details and hyperbole that do not exist in the survey info. For all we know it could be describing one of those above ground shelters, or just the roof of the shelter.

Yes, maybe I misconstrued it. Regardless, depending on the type of shelter it may be worth a deeper look.

 

[Sawmaster]

With "Mobile Recruitment Office" written on the door? I doubt it, but that's still some incredibly intense damage and it reaffirms my belief that Mayfield was indeed of EF5 intensity.

The wheel and door are almost certainly of a "Sprinter" or "Promaster" van.

 

[Sawmaster]

Maybe not out of the ground, but the DI did indicate something involved a storm shelter being pushed upward.

There was one occupied shelter where everyone inside reported that it felt like it was lifted and dropped about a foot 3 times. I don't remember any details being given of it's construction but It's been ages ago.

 

[buckeye05]

There was one occupied shelter where everyone inside reported that it felt like it was lifted and dropped about a foot 3 times. I don't remember any details being given of it's construction but It's been ages ago.

That wasn’t from Cordova, it was an underground fiberglass shelter in Rainsville. Separate tornado. Dirt/grass was also scoured away and partially exposed the buried fiberglass structure.

 

[TH2002]

I know I'm digging up an old comment here, but I also have to add that even though the number of deadly tornadoes has gone down, the numbers of casualties in tornadoes that have been deadly has stayed pretty much exactly the same. In fact, the number of tornado-related deaths seems to have increased since the second half of the 2010s. Both Mayfield and London would make the top 10 deadliest tornadoes of the 2010s. Mayfield was the fourth-deadliest tornado in the US in the past 60 years, with all of the top 3 being in 2011.

But yeah, to answer the question, the deadliest tornadoes by year over the past 15 years are:

2010 - Yazoo City, MS - 10 deaths
2011 - Joplin, MO - 158 deaths
2012 - Henryville, IN - 11 deaths
2013 - Moore, OK - 24 deaths
2014 - Vilonia, AR - 16 deaths
2015 - Rowlett, TX - 10 deaths
2016 - Funing, China - 98 deaths
2016 - Rosalie, AL - 4 deaths (deadliest in US)
2017 - Adel, GA - 11 deaths
2018 - Baltimore, MD - 2 deaths
2019 - Bharbalia, Nepal - >28 deaths
2019 - Beauregard, AL - 23 deaths (deadliest in US)
2020 - Cookeville, TN - 19 deaths
2021 - Mayfield, KY - 58 deaths
2022 - Winterset, IA - 6 deaths
2023 - Rolling Fork, MS - 17 deaths
2024 - Fort Pierce, FL - 6 deaths

Minor correction, but 2013's deadliest was Brahmanbaria, Bangladesh (36 deaths).

To add, 2009's deadliest was Kendrapara, India (15-20 deaths).

 

[joshoctober16]

shock no one has this tornado on their list of should upgraded to EF5 , did severe tree damage , swept clean one home , threw a vehicle and a other heavy object more then 1+ mile away.

Cisco EF3 2015

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

shock no one has this tornado on their list of should upgraded to EF5 , did severe tree damage , swept clean one home , threw a vehicle and a other heavy object more then 1+ mile away.

Cisco EF3 2015

Pretty sure Cisco was mentioned earlier in the thread regarding the new Enderlin standards.

 

[joshoctober16]

Pretty sure Cisco was mentioned earlier in the thread regarding the new Enderlin standards.

odd i guess i missed it?

here are some images of the damage.








there was a impressive forest shot that show how bad it was but i lost it....