Enhanced Fujita Ratings Debate Thread

[AJS]

Mayfield, by a good margin. Matador, however, is a Top 10 strongest of all time tornado, but I didn't mention it since no EF5 structural damage was caused - although I'm not sure if what it did to that forest meets the EF5 DI in the upcoming forest damage category in the updated EF scale.

I do agree that Matador was most likely the strongest tornado of the 2020s if we look at contextual evidence. However, I do think Mayfield isn’t too far behind, especially considering the scouring and vehicle damage.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Out of all the EF5 snubs, Vilonia, Goldsby, and Mayfield are in a class of their own. They conclusively check all the boxes several times over and then some. There's some others from 2011 I'd put in that category as well, but there just isn't as much documentation to prove it.

I would replace Mayfield with Chapman. Mayfield is a rather divisive EF5 candidate that really could've gone one way or the other, but Chapman caused Hackleburg-esque damage AND managed to bend a goddamn railroad track, which makes it a Top 20 strongest tornadoes of all time competitor.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Just jumping into the thread again.

I think Mayfield gets really close to Matador in terms of contextual damage, but Matador is strong in its own right. I have 0 doubt that both of them had winds well into the EF-5 Category. It gets very hard to judge which is stronger when both tornadoes get so violent. I think its important to note the speed of said tornadoes. Matador was on the ground for 9.4 Miles and lasted for 18 minutes (~30 MPH) and was 3/4 of a mile wide while Mayfield was around a Mile wide moving ~55-60 MPH and produced comparable damage.

Regarding Mayfield compared to other tornadoes? It is in a league above most. Sitting alongside Vilonia, Chapman, and few others. Mayfield should have been rated EF-5 in my mind and would have been in multiple locations if PAH took contextual damage into more consideration when rating it. The contextual damage from it is worse than some actual F/EF-5s that have happened in the past.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Just jumping into the thread again.

I think Mayfield gets really close to Matador in terms of contextual damage, but Matador is strong in its own right. I have 0 doubt that both of them had winds well into the EF-5 Category. It gets very hard to judge which is stronger when both tornadoes get so violent. I think its important to note the speed of said tornadoes. Matador was on the ground for 9.4 Miles and lasted for 18 minutes (~30 MPH) and was 3/4 of a mile wide while Mayfield was around a Mile wide moving ~55-60 MPH and produced comparable damage.

Regarding Mayfield compared to other tornadoes? It is in a league above most. Sitting alongside Vilonia, Chapman, and few others. Mayfield should have been rated EF-5 in my mind and would have been in multiple locations if PAH took contextual damage into more consideration when rating it. The contextual damage from it is worse than some actual F/EF-5s that have happened in the past.

I've made plenty of arguments in favor of Mayfield, but I think another important one is the track length. The tornado was on the ground for at least 165 miles. That's insane. It basically showed people that the Tri State tornado wasn't just a myth (several disconnected tracks and poor surveying) and is actually possible. Plus, It was incredibly violent almost the entire time.

If we're talking about just pure strength I think it still wins. Simply because of the overwhelming amount of evidence to choose from. It removes all doubt of its strength simply by the countless instances of complete and total destruction that occured. Completely debarked trees, cars thrown half a mile, and dozens of emply slabs/subfloors. Collectively it is more impressive than any other tornado this decade. Regardless of the fact each DI occured in different areas.

 

[joshoctober16]

View attachment 47081

and what tornado is this for?

 

[joshoctober16]

So they are at the least considering the idea.

These past 2-3 weeks have been great for the weather community. I am on the side that they should go back and r-evaluate some of the more controversial tornado ratings (Mayfield, Tuscaloosa, Vilonia, New Wren, Chickasha, Goldsby, Ringgold, Rochelle-Fairdale, Plausibly Rolling Fork, Maybe Bassfield-Soso could all be upgraded to EF-5 in my eyes), aswell as upgrading a few EF-3s to EF-4 (Gary, Lake City, Matador which could be rated EF-5, Bakersfield, maybe Andover '22 and Little Rock '23, and a few others).

I am back on board the train that Mayfield should have been rated EF-5. Thanks to Nick's tweet giving me the idea to take another look at the damage in Bremen and I now firmly believe that the home that was rated 190 MPH should have been rated as EF-5 damage, maybe the church in Mayfield aswell.

this brings up a other question , does NWS event notice Rochelle and new Wren as possible EF5?

all the others you listed have at least been noted as possible EF5 by them.

as for the EF4 , has little rock and Bakersfield event been noted as possible EF4 by them?

 

[joshoctober16]

View attachment 47083
I think one feat of damage from the Mayfield tornado that could potentially be used to help justify an upgrade would be the 18 ton tractor trailer that was hurled more than 1320 yards from the UK research center in Princeton.

holy cow i did not know about this one area.

was it empty or full?

is there any close up of this 18 ton trailer?

 

[buckeye05]

Wow. This ultimately results in this current EF scale era past 2013 having probably the worst ratings ever (and 2002-2006), and I hope they really go back and re-evaluate tornado ratings from these times. The imagery is online and if Grazulis himself had enough patience to go back and re-rate hundreds of tornadoes, a team of experienced surveyors should definitely be able to re-rate imagery openly available online on the internet. I sincerely hope they do so considering the implications of this.

This all feels so strange to me, the fact that all of this stuff is happening at once the moment Enderlin gets rated EF5. It’s as if this discussion of the train tossing at the highest level really allowed them to objectively evaluate non-standard damage indicators in addition to thinking of home damage under a less conservative light. But it’s just so great to see, and again, I really hope they go back and give some well deserved EF5/EF4 ratings that many people have been vouching for for past storms, as well as paving a newer, better way of rating going forwards.

I’m curious, does this change your views on Gary? I know you got quite fired up about that storm. It’s one I was very confused about when I first saw the less violent damage than I expected after seeing such extreme motion in the vortex along with its ridiculous roar. I feel like it also completely reinforces Marion’s 190 MPH rating that I know many felt like was too high of an estimate for windspeeds.

After seeing this presentation, I feel like practically every single 190 MPH EF4 past 2013 as well as many from 2011 were absolutely EF5s (outside of Marion and maybe a few others that I’m forgetting) and there were a significant number more that were rated EF3 that should’ve been EF4+. I’m specifically glaring at Matador and TTU here, I feel like this presentation in conjunction with Enderlin’s EF5 rating and the tree damage being able to be rated EF5 now allows for an easy reclassification of Matador to EF5 considering the fact that it was probably the most violent tornado of the 2020s.

Done yapping though. I’m so happy to have seen this. I’m sure many of us feel a little relieved or maybe even vindicated now!

Tired so I can’t get too in depth but yes I’ve reconsidered my stance on Gary, but due to the vehicle lofting and mangling, rather than the structural damage.

 

[Xyls]

holy cow i did not know about this one area.

was it empty or full?

is there any close up of this 18 ton trailer?

I mean not sure if that is that impressive. We have videos of semi trailers being thrown quite violently and appears can be associated with as low as an EF2 tornado. Unless of course this tornado needs to be re-rated. But based on Ethan Moriarty's calculations of the Enderlin and Mayfield train cars it's quite possible there are drag/aerodynamic considerations that perhaps aren't solely accounted for by weight.

 

[joshoctober16]

There have been a few examples of this occurring in past EF5-rated tornadoes where a home was given an EF5 DI despite the subfloor still remaining. Most notably in Greensburg, Parkersburg, and Joplin.

Here’s a great example from Greensburg. Close-up photo of the site shows wall-studs were toe-nailed to bottom plate, notably around where the stairs lead to the basement on the foundation. Aerial shows a clean sweep of all debris with reasonable contextual evidence. Result is an EF5 rating.
View attachment 47084View attachment 47085

The homes south of town rated EF5 save for the exception of one all had their subfloors intact as well.
View attachment 47086

Here’s an example from Parkersburg of pretty much the same thing. This home was also rated EF5.
View attachment 47087
View attachment 47088

Aerial of additional homes rated EF5 with their subfloors remaining.
View attachment 47089

Even the example of EF5 damage shown in the survey paper is of a home with the subfloor still intact.
View attachment 47090

It is also worth noting these were all assigned their ratings by Tim Marshall.

I’m not really sure why it became a thing to not rate houses swept clean off their subfloors EF5, especially when it’s been done several times in the past. Like LaDue said, it shouldn’t take a fortress to be rated EF5 if the evidence is there for it.

it is to note that for the southern EF5 homes (the ones that didnt get hit by debris a reason they started to use in 2014) as seen on this survey map

tim marshall map

sat map


image of that spot

as you can see the trees are almost all all standing and leaf's are still on them.

just remember one vilonia home didnt get rated EF5 because some thin tall trees 100 YARDS away were sort of still standing and in a ditch (they were a bit bent and all debark , no leafs left) it is to note there were a few flaws with the home , but nothing too major.

images of the thin at vilonia trees.

and there is mayfeild that had one tree 35 yards away still standing that prevented a home of getting EF5. (cycloidal scouring shows it missed the north tree , however the west side trees were torn out of the grown and thrown) note that the foundation wasn't perfect , but everything else about the home was well built.



noting this before enderlin situation happen , it would mean every EF5 spot by tim marshall could be pick apart by NWS.

however greensburg is pretty much the king of throwing heavy objects far , about 7+ miles away and the objects were in tones (forget how much).

again , if these rules were used on past F5 im pretty sure we would barely have any F5 left.

 

[joshoctober16]

Cambridge shores could basically be the poster child of EF3 rated subfloors. But there were poured concrete foundations with anchor bolts in the mix as well.

View attachment 47105

View attachment 47106
View attachment 47107View attachment 47108View attachment 47109View attachment 47110View attachment 47111

there is a image of a before and after of one of the homes around this spot , shows the tornado completely made low shrub / bushes vanish like smithville ... despite there being zero ground scouring at the same house ....

 

[joshoctober16]

I think out of all of the tornadoes in the 2020s so far, the one that deserves an upgrade to EF5 the most is West Kentucky. I say this because it checks off pretty much every EF5 DI that is in the EF-scale; homes swept away, vehicles thrown and mangled, ground scouring, wind rowing and granulation of debris, and incredible phenomena occurring (yet another instance of train cars being thrown). The only DI it doesn’t check off are trees being completely debarked, but that has to do with the fact that this tornado occurred during winter time, so trees are going to be much difficult to debark. Other than that, West Kentucky is the exact definition of an EF5 caliber event and the rating should absolutely reflect that.

ironicly acording to the new EF scale it migth be one of the only 2 tornadoes i can think of that would use the highest rating of multi tree damage.



and this multi tree damage can be rated EF5.

a other tornado is the white lake EF3 2007 tornado , however no close up images could be find.

google earth shows some areas have 0 trees left for huge areas.

 

[joshoctober16]

I will say with the new DIs they are putting out there. I am quite excited to see that splitting 21A and 21B based on whether it is in a hurricane zone or not. I wonder if this is because of the Port St. Lucie tornado last year which got an EF3. But considering many of the building codes in Florida for hurricanes, I've been suspicious that it really should've been rated EF4. I would assume the damage you would see in a hurricane construction zone area would be far less significant and perhaps deceptive compared to damage you would see in the Midwest from a similar tornado.

the spliting of 21A and 21B was way before that event, it was first mention on a video 4 years ago.

 

[joshoctober16]

I mean not sure if that is that impressive. We have videos of semi trailers being thrown quite violently and appears can be associated with as low as an EF2 tornado. Unless of course this tornado needs to be re-rated. But based on Ethan Moriarty's calculations of the Enderlin and Mayfield train cars it's quite possible there are drag/aerodynamic considerations that perhaps aren't solely accounted for by weight.

the empty box type tend to be the easiest thing to be blown down , so much surface area with barely any weight , that is why i was asking was it empty or full, it makes a large difference for them.

 

[Western_KS_Wx]

it is to note that for the southern EF5 homes (the ones that didnt get hit by debris a reason they started to use in 2014) as seen on this survey map

noting this before enderlin situation happen , it would mean every EF5 spot by tim marshall could be pick apart by NWS.

however greensburg is pretty much the king of throwing heavy objects far , about 7+ miles away and the objects were in tones (forget how much).

again , if these rules were used on past F5 im pretty sure we would barely have any F5 left.

Greensburg did have one home that was less than a year old sustain EF5 damage and it was in an isolated enough spot that would invalidate any argument against debris loading or nearby trees remaining intact. Here’s the home in question.


This home was actually such a solid candidate that the initial survey from NWS Dodge City even rated it EF5. Here’s an email I received from a retired meteorologist who did a comprehensive survey of the event.

The initial QRT and NWS DDC used some very strict guidelines while assessing residential damage, and only rated the High School and that home an EF5 before Tim Marshall and a secondary assessment found more instances of EF5 damage.

Also while mentioning the steel tanks that were moved 7 miles, I discovered the northernmost one was not actually the same tanks that originated from south of town. This one instead was a storage bin that reportedly was fully filled to capacity with grain and according to residents weighed roughly 25 tons (>55,000lbs). Here’s a photo of it again.

This was apparently thrown several blocks, and most likely originated from the grain elevator. That would mean it traveled over 1/4 mile.

Here are the other steel tanks that were blown several miles before landing within the city.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

I would replace Mayfield with Chapman. Mayfield is a rather divisive EF5 candidate that really could've gone one way or the other, but Chapman caused Hackleburg-esque damage AND managed to bend a goddamn railroad track, which makes it a Top 20 strongest tornadoes of all time competitor.

I think you and @buckeye05 have made good points and I like your pick. I don't fully agree with it, but I respect it. The truck fused with the combine, the car folded in half, the bent train tracks, and the snapped reinforced concrete foundation. It might be one of the most intense concentrated areas of damage ever.

What even was the reason for this area not getting EF5? Were there some trees nearby with bark or something?

 

[joshoctober16]

Greensburg did have one home that was less than a year old sustain EF5 damage and it was in an isolated enough spot that would invalidate any argument against debris loading or nearby trees remaining intact. Here’s the home in question.
View attachment 47137View attachment 47138

This home was actually such a solid candidate that the initial survey from NWS Dodge City even rated it EF5. Here’s an email I received from a retired meteorologist who did a comprehensive survey of the event.
View attachment 47145
The initial QRT and NWS DDC used some very strict guidelines while assessing residential damage, and only rated the High School and that home an EF5 before Tim Marshall and a secondary assessment found more instances of EF5 damage.

Also while mentioning the steel tanks that were moved 7 miles, I discovered the northernmost one was not actually the same tanks that originated from south of town. This one instead was a storage bin that reportedly was fully filled to capacity with grain and according to residents weighed roughly 25 tons (>55,000lbs). Here’s a photo of it again.
View attachment 47144
This was apparently thrown several blocks, and most likely originated from the grain elevator. That would mean it traveled over 1/4 mile.

Here are the other steel tanks that were blown several miles before landing within the city.
View attachment 47142View attachment 47143

so i guess that means the futhest one is more like 5 to 6 miles then? , no one tried to measured the other ones.

 

[Western_KS_Wx]

so i guess that means the futhest one is more like 5 to 6 miles then? , no one tried to measured the other ones.

They range from 5 1/2 to roughly 7 miles.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Greensburg did have one home that was less than a year old sustain EF5 damage and it was in an isolated enough spot that would invalidate any argument against debris loading or nearby trees remaining intact. Here’s the home in question.
View attachment 47137View attachment 47138

This home was actually such a solid candidate that the initial survey from NWS Dodge City even rated it EF5. Here’s an email I received from a retired meteorologist who did a comprehensive survey of the event.
View attachment 47145
The initial QRT and NWS DDC used some very strict guidelines while assessing residential damage, and only rated the High School and that home an EF5 before Tim Marshall and a secondary assessment found more instances of EF5 damage.

Also while mentioning the steel tanks that were moved 7 miles, I discovered the northernmost one was not actually the same tanks that originated from south of town. This one instead was a storage bin that reportedly was fully filled to capacity with grain and according to residents weighed roughly 25 tons (>55,000lbs). Here’s a photo of it again.
View attachment 47144
This was apparently thrown several blocks, and most likely originated from the grain elevator. That would mean it traveled over 1/4 mile.

Here are the other steel tanks that were blown several miles before landing within the city.
View attachment 47142View attachment 47143

I've never seen that isolated newly constructed house before. I'm completely desensitized to most tornado damage and those images are straight up unsettling. I think it's safe to say all the existing EF5s are firmly and unshakeably within that category.

It really seems like a small handful of tornadoes between 2007 and 2011 (and Moore 2013) set a standard that turned into this impossible bar for some reason. Maybe that's the conspiracy. Tim Marshall and other prominent surveyors just became bored with tornadoes lol. It's like in order for a tornado to get the "legendary" EF5 status it has to impress these people who have already seen everything. It just makes NWS Grand Fork's dissent that much cooler to me for some reason.

 

[buckeye05]

I think you and @buckeye05 have made good points and I like your pick. I don't fully agree with it, but I respect it. The truck fused with the combine, the car folded in half, the bent train tracks, and the snapped reinforced concrete foundation. It might be one of the most intense concentrated areas of damage ever.

What even was the reason for this area not getting EF5? Were there some trees nearby with bark or something?


View attachment 47146

Chapman wasn’t rated EF5 because the immediate area around the house that was obliterated wasn’t swept clean to the survey team’s liking. It literally came down to some bricks left piled up next to the basement foundation. So their logic was literally “A concrete foundation stemwall literally being ripped apart, bent railroad tracks, cars and multi-ton farm machinery lofted and mangled, and severe scouring and debarking all carry less weight in terms of the rating compared to some loose bricks left on the ground next to the foundation”.

Totally ridiculous, I know. It’s a perfect example of surveyors being totally fine with using some minute contextual factor to downgrade, while ignoring multiple other huge pieces of contextual evidence that just scream for an upgrade. It’s a double standard, and not even a subtle one. That kind of logic can’t just be a one way street. It has to go both ways.