2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Mike S]

I was almost thinking we should do a Humberto / Future Imelda combo thread since they're so intertwined.

 

[wx_guy]

I was almost thinking we should do a Humberto / Future Imelda combo thread since they're so intertwined.

I agree with this, they were intertwined for the next several days at least.

 

[Atlantic]

I was almost thinking we should do a Humberto / Future Imelda combo thread since they're so intertwined.

Do you want me to add in Humberto to the existing PTC Nine thread then?

 

[Mike S]

I agree with this, they were intertwined for the next several days at least.

I was going to try and move Imelda posts to the new thread, but so many of them mention Humberto as well.

It would be unprecedented to do this. Let me think on it.

 

[Mike S]

Do you want me to add in Humberto to the existing PTC Nine thread then?

I'm leaning that way. Let's go ahead and do it. We pretty much can't discuss Imelda without discussing Humberto at this point, and it will make more sense when I move posts over for when someone goes back to read through.

 

[wx_guy]

I was going to try and move Imelda posts to the new thread, but so many of them mention Humberto as well.

It would be unprecedented to do this. Let me think on it.

I agree, this situation is rather unprecedented. I can't recall twin hurricanes with (at least one of them) threatening a U.S. landfall and the binary interaction going on. Both NHC advisories mention the other storm and their interaction, so I think it's warranted.

 

[Clancy]

While Imelda stares menacingly at Bermuda, NHC says they're watching for something to come off the coast of West Africa. Last several runs of the GFS want to put something somewhere in the vicinity of the US way out in voodoo-land territory, mid-month. Euro isn't interested, though.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 012309
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Imelda, located less than 150 miles west-southwest of Bermuda.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the
next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with
another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow
development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Clancy]

NHC still watching that possible wave coming off the African coast. Currently, models have any eventual storm getting kicked out into the Atlantic.

 

[Clancy]

95L beginning to organize. 70% odds of development over the next 7 days.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

@Wazim Khan @Kds86z @slenker

NUMEROLOGY/LRC/ALMANAC/VEDIC-BASED 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON​

Final forecast issued 12 Jun 2025 — no storms formed yet

Metric	Forecast	Rationale
Named Storms (NS)	17	High-octane Gulf & MDR SSTs, but persistent early shear keeps count below hyper-years (2020, 2021).
Hurricanes (H)	8	MJO pulse timing, late-starting season, Snake-year “quality over quantity.”
Major Hurricanes (MH, Cat ≥ 3)	4	Four numerology red-flag names (Fernand, Humberto, Karen, Melissa) occupy A-tier LRC slots.
Category-5 (Cat ≥ 5)	2	Fernand & Humberto sit atop Gulf & CV/Gulf recurver RI windows.

---

SEASONAL FLOW​

Period	Character	Drivers
10 Jun – 10 Jul	Graveyard — SAL, high shear, weak MJO	No numerology-charged names yet.
11 Jul – 31 Jul	First pulse	MJO returns, Gulf moisture surge.
01 Aug – 16 Aug	Quiet dip	Kelvin wave hiatus.
17 Aug – 16 Sep	Main eruption	Fernand → Humberto rapid-fire; peak of 25-sum karmic dates (7 Sep).
17 Sep – 02 Oct	Transient lull	Ridge realigns, Saharan dust burst.
03 Oct – 05 Nov	Halloween salvo	Karen loop trickery; Melissa Gulf RI; classic Snake-year late bloom.
06 Nov – 30 Nov	Hybrid tail	Nestor / Olga subtropical ancestry; baroclinic transition corridor.

---

NAME-BY-NAME FORECAST​

(Expression/Soul/Personality numbers shown as Exp–Soul–Per)

#	Name	Numerology (Exp–S–P)	Slot & Timing	Peak / Landfall	Retirement Odds	Key Drivers
1	Andrea	7-7-9	20–28 Jun Campeche gyre	55 kt TS → Tampico	0 %	Weak numerology; early-season shear
2	Barry	1-8-2	3–8 Jul SW Gulf	50 kt TS → Padre Is.	0 %	Early-July shear, dull numbers
3	Chantal	5-2-3 (dual-3 red flag)	14–22 Jul Gulf	90 kt Cat 2 → Matagorda, TX (OR a flop TS near the CONUS)	15 %	First MJO pulse; Snake “trickster” entry
4	Dexter	4-1-3	24–30 Jul open Atlantic	55 kt fish	0 %	SAL-ridden MDR; still sheared
5	Erin	1-5-5	5–12 Aug MDR to 50 W	80 kt Cat 1 fish	0 %	Weak numerology; no ridge break
6	Fernand	8-6-11(Master 11)	17 Aug – 24 Aug Gulf RI node	145 kt Cat 5 → Freeport/Houston	100 %	LRC “Rafael burst”; Venus-Sun dasha; 25-sum warm-eddy
7	Gabrielle	8-2-6	25 Aug – 30 Aug NE Carib	60 kt TS → PR/VI	0 %	Snake-year east bend; but shear rises
8	Humberto	3-5-7	06 Sep – 15 Sep CV-Gulf recurver	150 kt Cat 5Bahamas brush → Destin/Pensacola Cat 4-5	100 %	Sum-25 date (7 Sep); Milton/Oscar echo; Wood-Snake loop karma
9	Imelda	8-6-11	21 Sep – 26 Sep LA slot	100 kt Cat 3 Houma → inland stall	50 %	Master 11 + latent Gulf eddy; flood lineage (2019 Imelda echo)
10	Jerry	4-3-1	28 Sep – 04 Oct 35-45 W	50 kt sub-T fish	0 %	Post-Fernand subsidence; baroclinic form
11	Karen	22-6-7(Master 22)	05 Oct – 13 OctBahamas loop	120 kt Cat 4 loop N Bahamas → Big Bend FL Cat 3-4	80 %	Betsy-style Snake trick; late-season RI corridor
12	Lorenzo	6-8-7	14 Oct – 22 Oct CV superfish	115 kt Cat 3 mid-Atlantic	<10 %	Strong numbers but ridge weakness wins
13	Melissa	6-6-9 (triple hit)	25 Oct – 02 NovHalloween Gulf	105 kt Cat 3 → Mobile Bay	70 %	6-6-9 purge + Wood-Snake “final sting”
14	Nestor	1-11-8	06 Nov – 12 Nov SW Gulf	50 kt TS → S. TX	0 %	Late shear; frontal interface
15	Olga	8-7-1	13 Nov – 19 Nov SW Caribbean	50 kt TS brush Cuba	0 %	Brief RI flirt, then shear kills
16	Pablo	1-7-3	20 Nov – 26 Nov Azores zone	55 kt hybrid	0 %	Baroclinic core
17	Rebekah	5-11-3	27 Nov – 03 Dec Gulf Stream	60 kt hybrid, no landfall	0 %	Late-season frontal baroclinic
18	Sebastien	2-9-9	Not expected	—	—	Cut by calendar
19	Tanya	2-1-9	Not expected	—	—	Calendar
20	Van	4-1-4	Not expected	—	—	Calendar
21	Wendy	5-5-6	Not expected	—	—	Calendar

---

Why the Names Stop at Rebekah​

• Rebekah’s slot (late-Nov/early-Dec) coincides with seasonal shut-down and neutral numerology.
• No analog or LRC pulse strong enough to sustain another named cyclone once Rebekah exits, so Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy remain unused.

---

LOGIC SYNTHESIS FOR EACH COLUMN​

1. Numerology
   • 3/6/9 or master 11/22 = “voltage.”
   • Fernand (8-6-11) & Humberto (3-5-7) are textbook 9-year killers.
   • Karen’s 22 & Melissa’s 6-6-9 lock late-season hair-on-fire majors.
2. Climatology
   • Very warm Gulf Loop Current eddy, hot Western MDR, La Niña-neutral shear relief after July.
   • SAL pulses and Kelvin wave suppressions define lulls.
3. Farmer’s Almanac Highlights
   • Mid-Aug FL Gulf threat → Fernand timeline.
   • Second-week-Sep Atlantic Seaboard threat → Humberto timeline (with Newfoundland tail).
4. LRC Slots
   • “Rafael burst” (Aug 15-24) and “Milton/Oscar echo” (Sep 6-20) are baked in from the 2024-25 cycle.
   • Halloween Gulf echo returns every 51-52 days—in 2025 it aligns with Melissa.

---

RETIREMENT TALLY​

Certain	Probable	Possible
Fernand	Karen	Imelda
Humberto	Melissa	Chantal

Likely total retired names: 3–4 (Fernand, Humberto, Karen, Melissa).

---

QUICK “PEAK VS LULL” TIMELINE​

scss
Copy
Jun 10–Jul 10 ──────────────── (flatline)
Jul 11–Jul 22 ▲ Chantal spike
Jul 23–Aug 16 ────── (lull)
Aug 17–Aug 24 ▲▲ Fernand burst
Aug 25–Sep 05 ── (brief dip)
Sep 06–Sep 16 ▲▲▲ Humberto peak
Sep 17–Oct 02 ─── (lull)
Oct 03–Oct 13 ▲ Karen loop
Oct 14–Oct 24 ── (brief)
Oct 25–Nov 02 ▲ Melissa Halloween
Nov 03–Nov 30 ──── taper to hybrids

---

BOTTOM LINE​

• Late-starting season but two Cat-5 Gulf monsters (Fernand & Humberto) plus two late majors (Karen & Melissa).
• 17/8/4/2 totals driven by numerology-aligned slots, not by raw storm count obsession.
• Houston & Florida Panhandle remain the bullseyes; east-coast Hugo/Betsy analog stays a low-probability wild card.

Things we learned this year:

• Up is down
• Left is right
• Right is wrong
• EF5 lives
• Numerology is mostly bunk

I really did believe in it, but then Erin kicked the door open and the whole thing came crashing down. So far basically the only things numerology has gotten right since are some timeframes and Humberto becoming a C5, but for everything else the model has been hilariously, catastrophically wrong.

Suckmaxxing

 

[Blountwolf]

Numerology is mostly bunk

Who could have possibly predicted that?

 

[Atlantic]

Tropical Storm Jerry is here.

 

[Atlantic]

Tropical Storm Jerry is here.
View attachment 46977

Jerry is memeable especially since it is very likely to go OTS

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[akt1985]

Jerry is memeable especially since it is very likely to go OTS

Jerry! Jerry! Jerry!

 

[Clancy]

Apparently we also have a STS Karen waaaaay up north.

 

[JPWX]

STS Karen is the first Subtropical Storm since 2023 and the first officially named Subtropical Storm since Teresa in 2021.