wx_guy
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AAAAH! The models ARE honing in on Fujiwara action! I just looked for the first time in days, and I'm excited! This could be a very rare Fujiwara interaction actually near land. That greatly complicates path forecast.View attachment 46634
Gabrielle still an intense hurricane, and now CODE RED on the two areas moving into the western Atlantic! 1) I wonder how close the western one will get to CONUS and 2) I wonder if they're close enough for Fujiwara action!
I have a few questions for anyone more knowledgeable about this:Gabrielle still an intense hurricane, and now CODE RED on the two areas moving into the western Atlantic! 1) I wonder how close the western one will get to CONUS and 2) I wonder if they're close enough for Fujiwara action!
I'm NOT a meteorologist, so take my answers with a grain of salt! @JPWX maybe you can weigh in?I have a few questions for anyone more knowledgeable about this:
1. Do the weaker storm(s) have a greater potential to be slingshotted in Fujiwhara situations? And, if so, doesn’t that make the storm to the east a very dangerous driver for the storm to the west, assuming it develops more quickly?
2. How well do models tend to do with Fujiwhara interactions? I feel like I’ve never seen it before, or, if I have, it’s always in voodoo land for the models.
3. Does a Fujiwhara interaction have any implications on the intensity of these storms?
4. Is a merger possible in Fujiwhara situations?
Sorry for the plethora of questions, but you simply don’t see this very often and this has completely piqued my interest.
The stronger storm can pull in the weaker storm, if both storms are similar in intensity, they can merge together into one powerful storm, or they can dance around each other until one decides to separate and move out.I have a few questions for anyone more knowledgeable about this:
1. Do the weaker storm(s) have a greater potential to be slingshotted in Fujiwhara situations? And, if so, doesn’t that make the storm to the east a very dangerous driver for the storm to the west, assuming it develops more quickly?
2. How well do models tend to do with Fujiwhara interactions? I feel like I’ve never seen it before, or, if I have, it’s always in voodoo land for the models.
3. Does a Fujiwhara interaction have any implications on the intensity of these storms?
4. Is a merger possible in Fujiwhara situations?
Sorry for the plethora of questions, but you simply don’t see this very often and this has completely piqued my interest.
Models also want Humberto to continue its hurricane streak:Looks like we will realize Tropical Storm Humberto at 5 pm from Invest 93L
View attachment 46642
AL, 93, 2025092418, , BEST, 0, 198N, 545W, 35, 1008, LO, 34,
Yep, it happened. And Humberto is forecast to continue its hurricane streak.well.
it happened i guess.
(also hi; first post.)
A person on Storm2K said that the NWS radar in Puerto Rico showed some spin, and that they didn’t think that 94L was too far behind Humberto in getting a name (Next name is Imelda)94L doesn't look far behind. No shortage of convection, at least - not sure how much spin it's got.
View attachment 46654
Definitely starting to see 94L getting going with more moisture at the end of the loop.Here's my usual plug for using Mimic TPW for seeing expected tropical system formation. You can see both taking shape - Huberto being more well formed for now.
Welcome dessertdoom. I've been following hurricanes for about 30 years. I know a little and have a lot of web links to folks who know a whole lot.
I don't like that the interaction is going to be so complex and so close to land at the same time. This one has me spooked a bit, because fujiwaras are unpredictable. I'd prefer one absorbs the other pretty quickly.Definitely starting to see 94L getting going with more moisture at the end of the loop.
I feel like it could be a sneaky system that will somehow find a backdoor to hit us, but it’s probably just me though.
It’s hard for the models to resolve such a thing. Heck, in my 5 years watching the basin I don’t think I’ve see such a complex fujiwara issue.I don't like that the interaction is going to be so complex and so close to land at the same time. This one has me spooked a bit, because fujiwaras are unpredictable. I'd prefer one absorbs the other pretty quickly.
I think the only fujiwara I’ve seen in the basin was between Philippe and Rina in 2023, and that was not too complicated of a setup, but it was still difficult to resolve.It’s hard for the models to resolve such a thing. Heck, in my 5 years watching the basin I don’t think I’ve see such a complex fujiwara issue.