I’d wait to hop on that train.
What is the wind obs? Pressure obs?
I wouldn’t exactly say we’re hopping on it. If anything we’re being impartial to the common perspective online that it is 100% a fish storm. There are variables in place to suggest an alternate scenario that models may not be picking up on. Is a fish storm the most likely scenario as of right now absolutely and it bares it out. The idea though to discount the lesser scenario 8+ days out just because it’s not the most likely scenario is not a good faith analysis of patterns. Whether it is a fish storm or not I can almost certainly guarantee there will be shifts in models as the atmosphere is very fickle.
Gusts between 15-20 mph and pressure near 1010 mb, but still maybe 20-30 miles from the deepest convection.
I kinda feel like the East Coast argument is kinda like a "happy medium" between OTS and FL, but in truth, ALL options are still on the table. OTS is climatologically the most favored outcome and that's really the ONLY thing to hang your hat on if you're hoping for OTS --> The models that are forecasting OTS, wanna take a stab at why? It's climatology! All of the major models have climatology baked in and weight it more and more as the forecasts extend into the future to "regress to the mean", so to speak and counteract some of the chaos of the other factors in the model (because the atmosphere is very chaotic and gets more so the more you extrapolate into the future, mathematically). So really, truly, everyone spouting OTS and "there is no threat to land right now because the models largely take it OTS" is somewhat false hope because it's not factoring in the current setup very much at all, but rather predicting based on the past. That's usually a good strategy, granted, but it leaves much to be desired, and every hurricane is a unique beast with his or her own quirks and traits. So honestly, I'd "chop off" the models altogether after Day 7 and just "pause and ponder" about possibilities beyond that. Just my two cents.
| 000 WTNT45 KNHC 111447 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 200 PM CVT Mon Aug 11 2025 The system we have been monitoring that moved across the Cabo Verde Islands over the past 6-12 h (Invest 97L) has maintained a small, but persistent area of deep convection. This activity prompted an earlier TAFB subjective Dvorak fix of T2.5/35 kt suggesting the convection is now sufficently organized to be classified as a tropical cyclone. We also received scatterometer data at 1107 UTC with a peak wind retrieval of 39 kt embedded in this convection, with an ambiguity analysis suggesting the circulation is also well defined, albeit still somewhat elongated on the eastern edge. The combination of all this data suggests that a tropical storm has formed, and NHC is initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Erin with a current intensity of 40 kt. Erin is moving quickly off to the west, with the motion estimated at 275/17 kt. Over the next few days, this motion should continue with possibly some slight south-of-due-west motion. Erin's motion is primarily influenced by an east-to-west oriented mid-level ridge draped across the subtropical Atlantic basin. By the end of the forecast period, this ridge may start to become more oriented to the northeast of Erin, inducing a more poleward motion by 120 h. The initial NHC track forecast elects to stick fairly close to the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA), which is a touch on the south side of the overall track guidance envelope. It should be noted that spread in the track guidance, especially the ensembles, begins to increase markedly at the end of the forecast period. The intensity forecast in the short-term is a little tricky. The earlier scatterometer data indicate the system has a small circulation which could be prone to rapid intensity changes, either up or down. While vertical wind shear over the system is forecast to be low, between 5-10 kt over the next 72 hours, sea-surface temperatures are more marginal, around 26-27C, with a decent amount of dry mid-level air along the path of the tropical storm. The first NHC intensity forecast will thus only forecast slow intensification in the short-term, assuming the marginal SSTs and lack of mid-level moisture will keep the small vortex in check. After 48 h, however, the SSTs start to gradually increase and should allow the local environment of Erin to moisten up. Thus, the rate of intensification will likely increase in the second half of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is a little on the high side of the guidance in the short-term, partially due to the initial intensity, but is in line with the HCCA intensity aid. By 120 h, the hurricane-regional models (e.g., HWRF/HAFS), and statistical-dynamical aids (EC-SHIPS/LGEM) show Erin becoming a major hurricane, and that will be explicitly forecast at the end of the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 17.4N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 17.5N 31.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 17.4N 35.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 17.1N 38.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 17.1N 41.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 17.4N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 18.0N 48.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 19.6N 54.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 21.5N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin |
This system is so similar to Irma it’s kinda insane. IIRC, Irma was forecast to curve north on the models far earlier than what actually ended up happening. I seem to recall that it was actually explicitly forecast to turn north before striking much of the islands it did.
People on Storm2K don’t really think Irma is a good comparison to Erin.
I’m curious as to why - the track looks very similar to me. However, I’m basing my statement off of pretty broad-scale amateur observations by me, so take it with a grain of salt. I’m not an expert by any means and I imagine there are many systems much closer to this one that I don’t know about.
Im no expert either. I’m an amateur too, but I am learning.
For reference, Bermuda to some of the closest U.S. mainland destinations are 600-700 nm. So consider that.
This is interesting! I'm betting there is some correlation between heat domes in June/July and subsequent tropical activity.
