2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[IdaliaHelene]

Actually reasonably accurate assuming it gets named. Likely landfall is quite a bit further south than South Padre and the timing is a few days early, but otherwise this looks like a very accurate pick.

Projected Accuracy: 95%

LMAOOOOOOO WTF IT’S WORKING WTF

 

[slenker]

We now have TS Barry in the Gulf. Not gonna last very long though.

 

[IdaliaHelene]

We now have TS Barry in the Gulf. Not gonna last very long though.

FreeBarryStanton

 

[Atlantic]

Here are the most common dates a TC has made landfall in the Atlantic basin;

September 10, the day of peak season has the second highest number of landfalls. September 16, six days after peak has the highest.

 

[Atlantic]

Here are the most common dates a TC has made landfall in the Atlantic basin;
View attachment 44674
September 10, the day of peak season has the second highest number of landfalls. September 16, six days after peak has the highest.

Infamous storms to have rolled ashore on September 16th include Hurricane Ivan of 2004 and Hurricane Sally of 2020.

 

[Atlantic]

Infamous storms to have rolled ashore on September 16th include Hurricane Ivan of 2004 and Hurricane Sally of 2020.

Ivan and Sally struck almost the exact same spot in Alabama 16 years apart.

 

[IdaliaHelene]

Ivan and Sally struck almost the exact same spot in Alabama 16 years apart.

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Special Message from NHC​

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Fri, 04 Jul 2025 20:20:33 +0000 ​

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NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Three, located in the Atlantic Ocean offshore of the southeastern United States, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

[td]Top News of the Day... view past news[/td]

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Last update Fri, 04 Jul 2025 20:50:14 UTC​

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• NHC issuing advisories for the Atlantic on TD Three
• Key messages regarding Tropical Depression Three (en Español: Mensajes Claves)
• NOAA predicts above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season
• National Hurricane Center Products and Services Update for 2025 Hurricane Season

[td] Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*) 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025​

[td] Tropical Depression Three

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Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of America​

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Tropical Weather Discussion
1815 UTC Fri Jul 04 2025​

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[td] ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ​ ​

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Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive​

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5:00 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 Location: 30.8°N 79.0°W Moving: N at 2 mph Min pressure: 1012 mb Max sustained: 35 mph
Rip Currents Rainfall Potential Flash Flooding Potential

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Advisory
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500 PM EDT[/td][td]Forecast
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2100 UTC[/td][td]Forecast
Discussion
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500 PM EDT[/td][td]Wind Speed
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2100 UTC[/td] [td]US Watch/
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436 PM EDT[/td] [td]Productos en español:
(más información)
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[td]Aviso
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[Lake Martin EF4]

@Wazim Khan @Kds86z @slenker

NUMEROLOGY/LRC/ALMANAC/VEDIC-BASED 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON​

Final forecast issued 12 Jun 2025 — no storms formed yet

Metric	Forecast	Rationale
Named Storms (NS)	17	High-octane Gulf & MDR SSTs, but persistent early shear keeps count below hyper-years (2020, 2021).
Hurricanes (H)	8	MJO pulse timing, late-starting season, Snake-year “quality over quantity.”
Major Hurricanes (MH, Cat ≥ 3)	4	Four numerology red-flag names (Fernand, Humberto, Karen, Melissa) occupy A-tier LRC slots.
Category-5 (Cat ≥ 5)	2	Fernand & Humberto sit atop Gulf & CV/Gulf recurver RI windows.

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SEASONAL FLOW​

Period	Character	Drivers
10 Jun – 10 Jul	Graveyard — SAL, high shear, weak MJO	No numerology-charged names yet.
11 Jul – 31 Jul	First pulse	MJO returns, Gulf moisture surge.
01 Aug – 16 Aug	Quiet dip	Kelvin wave hiatus.
17 Aug – 16 Sep	Main eruption	Fernand → Humberto rapid-fire; peak of 25-sum karmic dates (7 Sep).
17 Sep – 02 Oct	Transient lull	Ridge realigns, Saharan dust burst.
03 Oct – 05 Nov	Halloween salvo	Karen loop trickery; Melissa Gulf RI; classic Snake-year late bloom.
06 Nov – 30 Nov	Hybrid tail	Nestor / Olga subtropical ancestry; baroclinic transition corridor.

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NAME-BY-NAME FORECAST​

(Expression/Soul/Personality numbers shown as Exp–Soul–Per)

#	Name	Numerology (Exp–S–P)	Slot & Timing	Peak / Landfall	Retirement Odds	Key Drivers
1	Andrea	7-7-9	20–28 Jun Campeche gyre	55 kt TS → Tampico	0 %	Weak numerology; early-season shear
2	Barry	1-8-2	3–8 Jul SW Gulf	50 kt TS → Padre Is.	0 %	Early-July shear, dull numbers
3	Chantal	5-2-3 (dual-3 red flag)	14–22 Jul Gulf	90 kt Cat 2 → Matagorda, TX (OR a flop TS near the CONUS)	15 %	First MJO pulse; Snake “trickster” entry
4	Dexter	4-1-3	24–30 Jul open Atlantic	55 kt fish	0 %	SAL-ridden MDR; still sheared
5	Erin	1-5-5	5–12 Aug MDR to 50 W	80 kt Cat 1 fish	0 %	Weak numerology; no ridge break
6	Fernand	8-6-11(Master 11)	17 Aug – 24 Aug Gulf RI node	145 kt Cat 5 → Freeport/Houston	100 %	LRC “Rafael burst”; Venus-Sun dasha; 25-sum warm-eddy
7	Gabrielle	8-2-6	25 Aug – 30 Aug NE Carib	60 kt TS → PR/VI	0 %	Snake-year east bend; but shear rises
8	Humberto	3-5-7	06 Sep – 15 Sep CV-Gulf recurver	150 kt Cat 5Bahamas brush → Destin/Pensacola Cat 4-5	100 %	Sum-25 date (7 Sep); Milton/Oscar echo; Wood-Snake loop karma
9	Imelda	8-6-11	21 Sep – 26 Sep LA slot	100 kt Cat 3 Houma → inland stall	50 %	Master 11 + latent Gulf eddy; flood lineage (2019 Imelda echo)
10	Jerry	4-3-1	28 Sep – 04 Oct 35-45 W	50 kt sub-T fish	0 %	Post-Fernand subsidence; baroclinic form
11	Karen	22-6-7(Master 22)	05 Oct – 13 OctBahamas loop	120 kt Cat 4 loop N Bahamas → Big Bend FL Cat 3-4	80 %	Betsy-style Snake trick; late-season RI corridor
12	Lorenzo	6-8-7	14 Oct – 22 Oct CV superfish	115 kt Cat 3 mid-Atlantic	<10 %	Strong numbers but ridge weakness wins
13	Melissa	6-6-9 (triple hit)	25 Oct – 02 NovHalloween Gulf	105 kt Cat 3 → Mobile Bay	70 %	6-6-9 purge + Wood-Snake “final sting”
14	Nestor	1-11-8	06 Nov – 12 Nov SW Gulf	50 kt TS → S. TX	0 %	Late shear; frontal interface
15	Olga	8-7-1	13 Nov – 19 Nov SW Caribbean	50 kt TS brush Cuba	0 %	Brief RI flirt, then shear kills
16	Pablo	1-7-3	20 Nov – 26 Nov Azores zone	55 kt hybrid	0 %	Baroclinic core
17	Rebekah	5-11-3	27 Nov – 03 Dec Gulf Stream	60 kt hybrid, no landfall	0 %	Late-season frontal baroclinic
18	Sebastien	2-9-9	Not expected	—	—	Cut by calendar
19	Tanya	2-1-9	Not expected	—	—	Calendar
20	Van	4-1-4	Not expected	—	—	Calendar
21	Wendy	5-5-6	Not expected	—	—	Calendar

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Why the Names Stop at Rebekah​

• Rebekah’s slot (late-Nov/early-Dec) coincides with seasonal shut-down and neutral numerology.
• No analog or LRC pulse strong enough to sustain another named cyclone once Rebekah exits, so Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy remain unused.

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LOGIC SYNTHESIS FOR EACH COLUMN​

1. Numerology
   • 3/6/9 or master 11/22 = “voltage.”
   • Fernand (8-6-11) & Humberto (3-5-7) are textbook 9-year killers.
   • Karen’s 22 & Melissa’s 6-6-9 lock late-season hair-on-fire majors.
2. Climatology
   • Very warm Gulf Loop Current eddy, hot Western MDR, La Niña-neutral shear relief after July.
   • SAL pulses and Kelvin wave suppressions define lulls.
3. Farmer’s Almanac Highlights
   • Mid-Aug FL Gulf threat → Fernand timeline.
   • Second-week-Sep Atlantic Seaboard threat → Humberto timeline (with Newfoundland tail).
4. LRC Slots
   • “Rafael burst” (Aug 15-24) and “Milton/Oscar echo” (Sep 6-20) are baked in from the 2024-25 cycle.
   • Halloween Gulf echo returns every 51-52 days—in 2025 it aligns with Melissa.

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RETIREMENT TALLY​

Certain	Probable	Possible
Fernand	Karen	Imelda
Humberto	Melissa	Chantal

Likely total retired names: 3–4 (Fernand, Humberto, Karen, Melissa).

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QUICK “PEAK VS LULL” TIMELINE​

scss
Copy
Jun 10–Jul 10 ──────────────── (flatline)
Jul 11–Jul 22 ▲ Chantal spike
Jul 23–Aug 16 ────── (lull)
Aug 17–Aug 24 ▲▲ Fernand burst
Aug 25–Sep 05 ── (brief dip)
Sep 06–Sep 16 ▲▲▲ Humberto peak
Sep 17–Oct 02 ─── (lull)
Oct 03–Oct 13 ▲ Karen loop
Oct 14–Oct 24 ── (brief)
Oct 25–Nov 02 ▲ Melissa Halloween
Nov 03–Nov 30 ──── taper to hybrids

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BOTTOM LINE​

• Late-starting season but two Cat-5 Gulf monsters (Fernand & Humberto) plus two late majors (Karen & Melissa).
• 17/8/4/2 totals driven by numerology-aligned slots, not by raw storm count obsession.
• Houston & Florida Panhandle remain the bullseyes; east-coast Hugo/Betsy analog stays a low-probability wild card.

Wow. TD 3 fits in for the numerology timeframe Barry was too early for, but literally nothing else for it is on here. Looks like 2025 might be outrunning the numerology prediction, believe it or not.

Prediction Accuracy: 5%

EDIT: Realized you had Chantal up not only as the Gulf C2 but also as a "flop TS near CONUS". Since TD 3 is expected to become Chantal, if that happens I'm bumping the Prediction Accuracy score up to 85%.

 

[IdaliaHelene]

Wow. TD 3 fits in for the numerology timeframe Barry was too early for, but literally nothing else for it is on here. Looks like 2025 might be outrunning the numerology prediction, believe it or not.

Elab on outrunning the prediction?

Prediction Accuracy: 5%

EDIT: Realized you had Chantal up not only as the Gulf C2 but also as a "flop TS near CONUS". Since TD 3 is expected to become Chantal, if that happens I'm bumping the Prediction Accuracy score up to 85%.

Yup, it was gonna be either
If the gulf: bombs out
If the east coast or the middle of the Atlantic: flop ts

 

[akt1985]

Did the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry play a role in the deadly flash floods in Texas on July 4th? It’s frightening to think a minimal tropical storm might actually get its name retired if the death toll winds up being very high and it is determined that Barry played a role in the flash floods.

 

[IdaliaHelene]

Did the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry play a role in the deadly flash floods in Texas on July 4th? It’s frightening to think a minimal tropical storm might actually get its name retired if the death toll winds up being very high and it is determined that Barry played a role in the flash floods.

barry is a proud father of 5 from Blackpool England who loves india

 

[IdaliaHelene]

LMAOOOOOOOOOOOO

[td] ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...​ ​

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Tropical Storm Chantal [/td]

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Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive​

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[JPWX]

Did the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry play a role in the deadly flash floods in Texas on July 4th? It’s frightening to think a minimal tropical storm might actually get its name retired if the death toll winds up being very high and it is determined that Barry played a role in the flash floods.

No the remnants of Barry have long since faded and it made landfall too far south to have any affects on what happened yesterday. It was due to a slow moving thunderstorm complex with copious amounts of moisture being pulled in from both Gulf/Pacific on top of the areas already having saturated ground from well above normal precipitation the last 90 days. In fact, this morning, the remnant MCV (Mesoscale Convective Vortex) from yesterday's complex is producing additional flash flooding to areas east of the locations yesterday. Here's the list of types of thunderstorms including the thunderstorm complexes.

Thunderstorm Types

Descriptions of various types of severe thunderstorms, from the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory.

www.nssl.noaa.gov

 

[Atlantic]

Can Admin unpin the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread and pin this one up, since we are now in hurricane season?

@MichelleH @WesL

 

[WesL]

Can Admin unpin the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread and pin this one up, since we are now in hurricane season?

@MichelleH @WesL

Done and Done

 

[Kds86z]

Done and Done

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

yeah just a signal for now since its far out

 

[JPWX]

yeah just a signal for now since its far out

I hinted at this in my Patreon post last night

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

oh gotcha jpwx

 

[JPWX]

oh gotcha jpwx

You can see hints of something tropical on the 18z GFS and 12z Euro 15 thru 16 precipitation anomalies from yesterday as well as on today's runs of the 12z GFS and Euro.