Kory
Member
GFS may have convective feedback problems, but the consensus across nearly all modeling is developing in the NW Caribbean and moving into the Central/Eastern Gulf.
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The Euro stalls this thing over South Louisiana for 5 days at least. Goodness gracious. NOLA just flooded badly from a summer storm just last Friday. I can’t imagine this.
No. That means I have to admit this thing might be real and that is just an invitation for it to find me on my cruise.. Already wondering if they are going to divert us to another port 100 miles on the other side of the Yucatan. I'll leave the honor of the first storm thread to someone else.You want the Honors Wes of creating the Invest 90L topic that hopefully doesn't turn into TS Alberto
I'm not seeing any big strengthening with this system, but the key is going to be: does it stack beneath the ULL? Or does it continually get sheared like the GFS is showing? I'm leaning toward the UKMET/Euro/CMC camp. The GFS just looks funky to me and reeks of convective feedback.
It is going to be very slow to get its act together. Central American gyres always are and this one is getting pounded by shear. If/when it stacks beneath the ULL, the subtropical jet will aid in the ventilation of the system which may help in strengthening a bit. I wouldn't rule out a moderate to strong TS, but the main threat will be rainfall. Someone is going to get raked with 12-18" of rain as steering currents weaken and this thing hangs around for a few days.