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Severe Weather Threat June 15-23

joshoctober16 said:
when the parameters match up with everything in typical hybrid tornado on a boundary
or
landspout that forms or moves under a mesocyclone.

it seem to be very landspout ish at the very start of its life.

in other words this image might help

View attachment 44136

hard to tell with the velocity but it almost looks like the landspout formed first and the mesocyclone formed above it after.
Click to expand...

@joshoctober16



 
Oklahoma may be in on the tornado threat tomorrow. This sounding is from central Oklahoma at 10 PM CST

1750136269292.png

Also, the 0-3km Energy Helicity Index is showing max values over a huge area, and paints a solid picture of the insane helicity the RAP is projecting. Having to upload multiple images instead of the GIF because this site is saying a 2.3 mb gif is too large -_-

1750136840125.png1750136867211.png1750136890953.png1750136913072.png1750136939333.png1750136961425.png

I'll be shocked and disappointed if they don't issue a 15% tornado risk with this upcoming outlook. Just because we haven't had a June set up like this in a long time doesn't mean it's not possible, and it's also possible the models could have some recency bias with the mesoscale convection they're showing. Regardless, even if this is a QLCS right off the bat, it doesn't mean that line can't still be a prolific tornado producer. We've had those in the past as well.
 
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