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Severe Weather 2025

GFS is still locked in on a very active period in the Midwest next week starting on Tuesday evening (06/17). Tuesday looks like an MCS/wind threat, But then the GFS has a 995 mb low ejecting over Iowa, and taking on a negative tilt by Wednesday evening into Thursday. Could be a significant event if this verifies. Safe to say a lot of uncertainty still remains as the 00z ECMWF looks nothing like the 12z GFS, but I suspect it'll be closer with its 12z run..

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From the SPC day 4-8 outook
...DISCUSSION...
During the Sunday/D4 to Monday/D5 period, an upper ridge is forecast
to remain over the Plains, with modest southwest flow aloft over the
West. Models suggest that around Tuesday/D6, the upper ridge will
break down over the central/northern Plains, although the amplitude
and track of the wave is in question. Ample low-level moisture will
be in place from the Plains to the East Coast, with mid to upper 60s
F as far north as southern parts of the Great Lakes.

As a result of this large area of moisture and instability, widely
scattered thunderstorms will be common each day. The northern Plains
appears to have the greatest chance of organized severe storms
includes MCS/s, but predictability is clearly low at this time with
the uncertain wave. However, it appears that the Tuesday/D6 to
Wednesday/D7 time frame may yield a corridor of organized damaging
wind potential over parts of the northern and central plains to
Midwest, and these trends will continue to be monitored.
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Last edited:
Grand Poo Bah said:
GFS is still locked in on a very active period in the Midwest next week starting on Tuesday evening (06/17). Tuesday looks like an MCS/wind threat, But then the GFS has a 995 mb low ejecting over Iowa, and taking on a negative tilt by Wednesday evening into Thursday. Could be a significant event if this verifies. Safe to say a lot of uncertainty still remains as the 00z ECMWF looks nothing like the 12z GFS, but I suspect it'll be closer with its 12z run..

View attachment 43946

From the SPC day 4-8 outook



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Is a thread for this @Grand Poo Bah
 
i hope that with whats going on up there in the midwest and northern plains and despite spc mentioning just mcs potential and that we are in june with lots of instability and dews that things quickly evolve into a line for those folks up there despite the inconsistency with the weather models i heard that the euro is the best and that the gfs needs to be really updated
 
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