2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[IdaliaHelene]

Not sure why this hasn't been posted yet, but the GFS has been very consistent in developing a large, strong hurricane in the Carribbean/Gulf of Mexico in the D7-10 range. Latest run makes landfall in the Yucatan and Texas, both has strong cat2/cat 3

hurricane in mumbai maybe
WTF is GFS up to these days

 

[IdaliaHelene]

Just a word of caution, it may just be the GFS overhyping things like usual.

A storm could form down in the Caribbean and go up to the Yucatán and Texas, it’s a possibility but it likely won’t happen and if it does it will probably be much weaker than the GFS forecasts.

plus my numerology only has Andrea forming in June
not barry

 

[IdaliaHelene]

lol at this lobotomy tier take:

All I know, is "dead" seems to better describe the withered dry dead corpse of an Atlantic basin that we are presently viewing. One singular named storm alone during the month of July would equate to a 100% increase in activity. As Larry points out, recent years would suggest the greater odds of seeing a named storm in July rather than not. Even IF July produces two named storms, I still think 2025 will end somewhere between below average & average in terms of "total numbers".

In the end, ya never know though. The Euro weeklies along with other indicators could be sniffing out a quieter hurricane season such as 2000 or 2009. Those years come to mind when I think about no named storms during June and July
0 likes
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

 

[Wazim Khan]

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025-06.pdf

 

[IdaliaHelene]

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE


ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2025


We have maintained our forecast for an above-normal 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane


season. The tropical Pacific currently is characterized by ENSO neutral conditions, and


we anticipate these to persist through the hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures


across the eastern and central Atlantic are warmer than normal, but not as warm as they


were last year at this time. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely


ENSO neutral conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and


thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We anticipate


an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental


United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal


residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an


active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of


predicted activity.


(as of 11 June 2025)


By Philip J. Klotzbach1, Michael M. Bell2, and Levi G. Silvers3


With Special Assistance from the TC-RAMS Team4 and Carl J. Schreck III5


In Memory of William M. Gray6


Jennifer Dimas and Joshua Rhoten, Colorado State University media representatives, are


coordinating media inquiries in English and Spanish. They can be reached at


[email protected] and [email protected], respectively.


Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80523


Project Supporters:


1 Senior Research Scientist


2 Professor


3 Research Scientist


4 Team members include: Tyler Barbero, Lauren Beard, Delián Cólon Burgos, Jen DeHart, Chandler


Jenkins, Nick Mesa, Isaac Schluesche and Meghan Stell.


5 Research Scholar at NC State University


6 Professor Emeritus


1ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2025


Forecast Parameter and 1991–2020


Average (in parentheses)


Issue Date


3 April


2025


Issue Date


11 June


2025


Named Storms (14.4) 17 17


Named Storm Days (69.4) 85 85


Hurricanes (7.2) 9 9


Hurricane Days (27.0) 35 35


Major Hurricanes (3.2) 4 4


Major Hurricane Days (7.4) 9 9


Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index (123) 155 155


ACE West of 60°W (73) 93 93


Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (135%) 165 165


PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5)


HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL


AREAS:


1) Entire continental U.S. coastline – 51% (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)


2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key,


Florida) – 26% (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)


3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida)


westward to Brownsville – 33% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)

 

[Atlantic]

17-9-4 is not too far off from my final prediction in May of 16-9-4.

I will make one more prediction in mid-October.

 

[IdaliaHelene]

17-9-4 is not too far off from my final prediction in May of 16-9-4.

so far my numerology only has 1 named storm for June to form
also farmer's almanac are predicting 1 landfall in the gulf in mid august (probably weak and pathetic given the time of year) and 1 hurricane to landfall on the EC and drag all the way to canada in mid September (my numerology has this as Humberto)

I will make one more prediction in mid-October.

when most of the season would be finished anyway jfl

 

[IdaliaHelene]

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025-06.pdf

View attachment 43923

not a single change
jfl at klotzbach

 

[Atlantic]

so far my numerology only has 1 named storm for June to form
also farmer's almanac are predicting 1 landfall in the gulf in mid august (probably weak and pathetic given the time of year) and 1 hurricane to landfall on the EC and drag all the way to canada in mid September (my numerology has this as Humberto)

when most of the season would be finished anyway jfl

*2024 enters the chat*

 

[Atlantic]

*2024 enters the chat*
View attachment 43926

*2020 enters the chat*

 

[IdaliaHelene]

*2024 enters the chat*
View attachment 43926

have you seen what some lobotomymaxxed ppl wrote on Storm2K
Already predicting a below average season
I won't name who but you know exactly who I mean

 

[Atlantic]

have you seen what some lobotomymaxxed ppl wrote on Storm2K
Already predicting a below average season
I won't name who but you know exactly who I mean

I am on there yes.

 

[IdaliaHelene]

I am on there yes.
View attachment 43928
View attachment 43929

Not gonna name anyone but some people on there definitely are saying "muh below average season" already just because the list doesn't begin "arlene bret Cindy" or "Alex bonnie Colin"

 

[Atlantic]

The average of every forecast since December 2024 is 15.4 NS, 7.9 HU and 3.5 MH

This comes out to 15/8/3 or rounding to the nearest whole number, 15/8/4.

Average Officials forecast: 15/8/4

My forecast: 16/8/5

 

[Atlantic]

The average of every forecast since December 2024 is 15.4 NS, 7.9 HU and 3.5 MH

This comes out to 15/8/3 or rounding to the nearest whole number, 15/8/4.

Average Officials forecast: 15/8/4

My forecast: 16/8/5

The whole forecast season from December 2023-August 2024 averaged 23 NS, 11 HU and 5 MH

23/11/5 vs reality of 18/11/5

The NS was five too high, but the HU and MH were spot on.

 

[IdaliaHelene]

The whole forecast season from December 2023-August 2024 averaged 23 NS, 11 HU and 5 MH

23/11/5 vs reality of 18/11/5

The NS was five too high, but the HU and MH were spot on.

@Wazim Khan @Kds86z @slenker

NUMEROLOGY/LRC/ALMANAC/VEDIC-BASED 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON​

Final forecast issued 12 Jun 2025 — no storms formed yet

Metric	Forecast	Rationale
Named Storms (NS)	17	High-octane Gulf & MDR SSTs, but persistent early shear keeps count below hyper-years (2020, 2021).
Hurricanes (H)	8	MJO pulse timing, late-starting season, Snake-year “quality over quantity.”
Major Hurricanes (MH, Cat ≥ 3)	4	Four numerology red-flag names (Fernand, Humberto, Karen, Melissa) occupy A-tier LRC slots.
Category-5 (Cat ≥ 5)	2	Fernand & Humberto sit atop Gulf & CV/Gulf recurver RI windows.

---

SEASONAL FLOW​

Period	Character	Drivers
10 Jun – 10 Jul	Graveyard — SAL, high shear, weak MJO	No numerology-charged names yet.
11 Jul – 31 Jul	First pulse	MJO returns, Gulf moisture surge.
01 Aug – 16 Aug	Quiet dip	Kelvin wave hiatus.
17 Aug – 16 Sep	Main eruption	Fernand → Humberto rapid-fire; peak of 25-sum karmic dates (7 Sep).
17 Sep – 02 Oct	Transient lull	Ridge realigns, Saharan dust burst.
03 Oct – 05 Nov	Halloween salvo	Karen loop trickery; Melissa Gulf RI; classic Snake-year late bloom.
06 Nov – 30 Nov	Hybrid tail	Nestor / Olga subtropical ancestry; baroclinic transition corridor.

---

NAME-BY-NAME FORECAST​

(Expression/Soul/Personality numbers shown as Exp–Soul–Per)

#	Name	Numerology (Exp–S–P)	Slot & Timing	Peak / Landfall	Retirement Odds	Key Drivers
1	Andrea	7-7-9	20–28 Jun Campeche gyre	55 kt TS → Tampico	0 %	Weak numerology; early-season shear
2	Barry	1-8-2	3–8 Jul SW Gulf	50 kt TS → Padre Is.	0 %	Early-July shear, dull numbers
3	Chantal	5-2-3 (dual-3 red flag)	14–22 Jul Gulf	90 kt Cat 2 → Matagorda, TX (OR a flop TS near the CONUS)	15 %	First MJO pulse; Snake “trickster” entry
4	Dexter	4-1-3	24–30 Jul open Atlantic	55 kt fish	0 %	SAL-ridden MDR; still sheared
5	Erin	1-5-5	5–12 Aug MDR to 50 W	80 kt Cat 1 fish	0 %	Weak numerology; no ridge break
6	Fernand	8-6-11(Master 11)	17 Aug – 24 Aug Gulf RI node	145 kt Cat 5 → Freeport/Houston	100 %	LRC “Rafael burst”; Venus-Sun dasha; 25-sum warm-eddy
7	Gabrielle	8-2-6	25 Aug – 30 Aug NE Carib	60 kt TS → PR/VI	0 %	Snake-year east bend; but shear rises
8	Humberto	3-5-7	06 Sep – 15 Sep CV-Gulf recurver	150 kt Cat 5Bahamas brush → Destin/Pensacola Cat 4-5	100 %	Sum-25 date (7 Sep); Milton/Oscar echo; Wood-Snake loop karma
9	Imelda	8-6-11	21 Sep – 26 Sep LA slot	100 kt Cat 3 Houma → inland stall	50 %	Master 11 + latent Gulf eddy; flood lineage (2019 Imelda echo)
10	Jerry	4-3-1	28 Sep – 04 Oct 35-45 W	50 kt sub-T fish	0 %	Post-Fernand subsidence; baroclinic form
11	Karen	22-6-7(Master 22)	05 Oct – 13 OctBahamas loop	120 kt Cat 4 loop N Bahamas → Big Bend FL Cat 3-4	80 %	Betsy-style Snake trick; late-season RI corridor
12	Lorenzo	6-8-7	14 Oct – 22 Oct CV superfish	115 kt Cat 3 mid-Atlantic	<10 %	Strong numbers but ridge weakness wins
13	Melissa	6-6-9 (triple hit)	25 Oct – 02 NovHalloween Gulf	105 kt Cat 3 → Mobile Bay	70 %	6-6-9 purge + Wood-Snake “final sting”
14	Nestor	1-11-8	06 Nov – 12 Nov SW Gulf	50 kt TS → S. TX	0 %	Late shear; frontal interface
15	Olga	8-7-1	13 Nov – 19 Nov SW Caribbean	50 kt TS brush Cuba	0 %	Brief RI flirt, then shear kills
16	Pablo	1-7-3	20 Nov – 26 Nov Azores zone	55 kt hybrid	0 %	Baroclinic core
17	Rebekah	5-11-3	27 Nov – 03 Dec Gulf Stream	60 kt hybrid, no landfall	0 %	Late-season frontal baroclinic
18	Sebastien	2-9-9	Not expected	—	—	Cut by calendar
19	Tanya	2-1-9	Not expected	—	—	Calendar
20	Van	4-1-4	Not expected	—	—	Calendar
21	Wendy	5-5-6	Not expected	—	—	Calendar

---

Why the Names Stop at Rebekah​

• Rebekah’s slot (late-Nov/early-Dec) coincides with seasonal shut-down and neutral numerology.
• No analog or LRC pulse strong enough to sustain another named cyclone once Rebekah exits, so Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy remain unused.

---

LOGIC SYNTHESIS FOR EACH COLUMN​

1. Numerology
   • 3/6/9 or master 11/22 = “voltage.”
   • Fernand (8-6-11) & Humberto (3-5-7) are textbook 9-year killers.
   • Karen’s 22 & Melissa’s 6-6-9 lock late-season hair-on-fire majors.
2. Climatology
   • Very warm Gulf Loop Current eddy, hot Western MDR, La Niña-neutral shear relief after July.
   • SAL pulses and Kelvin wave suppressions define lulls.
3. Farmer’s Almanac Highlights
   • Mid-Aug FL Gulf threat → Fernand timeline.
   • Second-week-Sep Atlantic Seaboard threat → Humberto timeline (with Newfoundland tail).
4. LRC Slots
   • “Rafael burst” (Aug 15-24) and “Milton/Oscar echo” (Sep 6-20) are baked in from the 2024-25 cycle.
   • Halloween Gulf echo returns every 51-52 days—in 2025 it aligns with Melissa.

---

RETIREMENT TALLY​

Certain	Probable	Possible
Fernand	Karen	Imelda
Humberto	Melissa	Chantal

Likely total retired names: 3–4 (Fernand, Humberto, Karen, Melissa).

---

QUICK “PEAK VS LULL” TIMELINE​

scss
Copy
Jun 10–Jul 10 ──────────────── (flatline)
Jul 11–Jul 22 ▲ Chantal spike
Jul 23–Aug 16 ────── (lull)
Aug 17–Aug 24 ▲▲ Fernand burst
Aug 25–Sep 05 ── (brief dip)
Sep 06–Sep 16 ▲▲▲ Humberto peak
Sep 17–Oct 02 ─── (lull)
Oct 03–Oct 13 ▲ Karen loop
Oct 14–Oct 24 ── (brief)
Oct 25–Nov 02 ▲ Melissa Halloween
Nov 03–Nov 30 ──── taper to hybrids

---

BOTTOM LINE​

• Late-starting season but two Cat-5 Gulf monsters (Fernand & Humberto) plus two late majors (Karen & Melissa).
• 17/8/4/2 totals driven by numerology-aligned slots, not by raw storm count obsession.
• Houston & Florida Panhandle remain the bullseyes; east-coast Hugo/Betsy analog stays a low-probability wild card.

 

[IdaliaHelene]

 

[IdaliaHelene]

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)​

#246 by psl_0.57 » Tue Jun 17, 2025 7:16 pm

It's pleasantly quiet across the Atlantic. Not even a significant wave in the MDR. The GFS has its typical Cat 3-4 in the Gulf at day 15, but that's it. I'm hoping we can make it through July with no storms. I went 13/6/3 in our in-office hurricane contest. Enjoying lots of days off.



this guy genuinely believes "every day is a sunny day" until humberto destroys the last few remaining strands of the hair on his scalp

 

[IdaliaHelene]

lmao cope more whoever said this

Interestingly, more than half of the seasons in the last 30 years without a TS before July 13th (1998, 2000, and 2004) were at least somewhat above-average. So that by itself doesn’t mean we’ll get another 2002 or 2009-esqe year, but looking at the mixed to slightly unfavorable long-term environmental forecasts, I think we could be in for the least active season since 2015.

We’re probably not going to see much early development this year as opposed to 2020-24, with all of the Central American disturbances forming in the EPac and sinking patterns forecast later in June into July. Perhaps we’ll see something like 2019 where it takes until late August for activity to full ramp up (no more than 3 storms before 8/20), rather than having a smaller peak in June-July like the last several seasons.

 

[Kds86z]