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Severe WX Severe Weather Threats 1/21-1/22 2017 (Saturday - Sunday)

SPC is going to extend part of the tornado watch along the GA/FL border beyond the 10 AM EST expiration; new PDS coming after they let that expire.
 
For what it's worth, Dr. Forbes has raised the TOR:CON to NINE for parts of Florida and Georgia.

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But for real, that's a nasty environment about to spill into the Eastern Panhandle and Big Bend Region of Florida and into South Georgia. Will be interesting how the current stalled line of storms in South Georgia affects the northward advection of a better airmass...if it does at all.
 
There was always a chance this could be a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, due to the timing of the storms and the warm front. I still think they were right to use such strong wording, people needed to stay wx aware if all the ingredients had come together.
I'm don't remember in southern GA was in that watch area. I went to sleep before things went down!
 
Unfortunately most of the casualties in South Georgia seem to have been in mobile homes. I would guess a fair number of them never got the warnings because they didn't have radios; I have no idea if those areas have sirens or not. That's a relatively rural and relatively poor part of the state so it's entirely possible there were no sirens to begin with. I hope they're able to get some of the power restored, since I know it was still out in the Albany area a couple of hours ago.
 
warneagle said:
Unfortunately most of the casualties in South Georgia seem to have been in mobile homes. I would guess a fair number of them never got the warnings because they didn't have radios; I have no idea if those areas have sirens or not. That's a relatively rural and relatively poor part of the state so it's entirely possible there were no sirens to begin with. I hope they're able to get some of the power restored, since I know it was still out in the Albany area a couple of hours ago.
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It's so important to make sure trailer parks or communities with trailers have a safe place plus they need to have programs like we have around here that you can get free radios!
 
Kory said:
But for real, that's a nasty environment about to spill into the Eastern Panhandle and Big Bend Region of Florida and into South Georgia. Will be interesting how the current stalled line of storms in South Georgia affects the northward advection of a better airmass...if it does at all.
Click to expand...
With the low moving northeast, that area where the line in should be the prime zone. You will have backing of the winds due to differential heating boundaries in place with the areas to the south of I-10 being untouched vs those north, plus the winds would back even further with the rapid intensification of the low as it lifts toward Atlanta.
 
Did not expect to see a high risk and 11+ fatalities when I woke up this morning. Holy cow.

Guess I'll be armchair storm chasing for a third day.
 
I haven't looked at the last couple of runs because I've been out running errands but the 12Z HRRR had a *979 mbar* low sitting around Anniston at 0Z. Some really impressive deepening if that verifies.
 
Tallahassee recorded an all time CAPE record for the month of January with this morning's launch. 2232. Incredible.
 
Obviously the highest risk is S GA and N FL and into the Carolinas later..but in the vicinity of the low, all modes of severe are possible in NE Alabama and north Georgia later this afternoon
 
I noticed they moved the 15% area a bit further north and expanded the hatches area further into SC on the last update. They must be getting more confident regarding destabilization that far north?
 
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