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Severe Weather 2025

Jbop said:
Max is seeing a potential significant server weather event setting up by next week

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Max may be one of those "clickbait-y" guys, but he's honestly got better coverage than Ryan Hall during live severe events IMO, especially with the stupid robot he's got.

That being said, GFS is pretty spooky with this one with a nasty trough ejection in the northern parts of the Plains. Euro is a little less intense looking. It'll be interesting to see how this system evolves.
 
Severe thunderstorms with multiple embedded rotations are making their way across western GA now. One is tornado-warned.
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I've gotten in trouble a couple times this year talking about "verification" and "performance" of storm systems. Let me just defend myself by saying I think models and forecasts being wrong is one of the top factors that makes severe weather such an addictive hobby/career. It's the process of trying to make sense out of something that is, by its very nature, chaotic and unpredictable. The STPs and VTPs are algorithms that calculate the most important parameters for tornado genesis, yet we regularly see isolated supercells enter areas with maxed out STPs and VTPs and produce nothing.

Of course, meteorologists can usually find the answers in hindsight, but foresight is much more important. Broyles is so respected because he's the best there is in that regard, and even he doesn't have a perfect batting average. There's still so much we don't fully understand, and trying to is a fascinating process. There have been some extremely nasty events this year, and past experience tells us even those could've been much worse based on the variables that were in place. To me, it seems like the only difference between this year and 2011 is the fact that very few events this year have come close to hitting their max ceilings, whereas almost all of the systems in 2011 seemingly did.

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It also seems like last year was as prominent as it was because a ton of systems actually over performed significantly. Not sure if this is an accurate assessment, though.
 
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Reception on the Buchanan NWR station, which is usually good in my area, is absolutely abysmal today. Hopefully alerts are getting across. Looking at a possible tornado near Roopville. Not sure about that CC drop, don't think it's legit but the couplet is tight.

Edit: This storm is now tornado-warned.
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Looks like an instance of truly, just enough ingredients for tornadogenesis. Currently-warned storms are probably riding this boundary of instability.
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Grand Poo Bah said:
edit:
It also seems like last year was as prominent as it was because a ton of systems actually over performed significantly. Not sure if this is an accurate assessment, though.
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Kind of funny you say that, because last year was slow up until April 26th when Nebraska kicked off an extremely busy next month. The early season was full of bu$ts (including one notable one on 4/2/24) and the only real event up until that point was a sneaky outbreak in Ohio/Indiana in Mid March. Then May was just insanely busy with the plains coming alive. You had quite a few systems last year that didn’t perform to their ceiling. Almost all years feature a mix of events that hit their ceiling and others that don’t, I would say 2025 and 2024 are both similar in that regard.


Edit: the 4/2/2024 event always makes me chuckle because Kerr from the SPC wasn’t really sold on it and kept it at enhanced. That caused a funny comment on a storm chasing forum that said “it’s time for Kerr to reevaluate his time at the SPC”. Then another forecaster came in and issued a moderate, almost to the day of the 50th anniversary of 4/3/74.
 
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TheWeatherAnalyst said:
Kind of funny you say that, because last year was slow up until April 26th when Nebraska kicked off an extremely busy next month. The early season was full of bu$ts (including one notable one on 4/2/24) and the only real event up until that point was a sneaky outbreak in Ohio/Indiana in Mid March. Then May was just insanely busy with the plains coming alive. You had quite a few systems last year that didn’t perform to their ceiling. Almost all years feature a mix of events that hit their ceiling and others that don’t, I would say 2025 and 2024 are both similar in that regard.
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I think April 26/27 was a huge over performance. And May 21st. But great point about the slow early season. Last year was definitely a mixed bag.
 
Almost certainly had a brief, spin-up tornado on the east side of Newnan a few minutes ago.
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Clancy said:
Almost certainly had a brief, spin-up tornado on the east side of Newnan a few minutes ago.
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I clicked on RadarScope and had left it on KBMX and saw another line of storms and thought “is it frozen from the other day?”. Nope, just constant MCSs for you all down south the past week or so lol
 
TheWeatherAnalyst said:
I clicked on RadarScope and had left it on KBMX and saw another line of storms and thought “is it frozen from the other day?”. Nope, just constant MCSs for you all down south the past week or so lol
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Yep, woke up this morning to the MCS in Mississippi and straight-up thought it was old data from last night!
 
This year has been pretty remarkable overall. We've still lots of year left to go in 2025, but if we had zero additional tornadoes, we'd still be above average until about mid-July.
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TheWeatherAnalyst said:
@CheeselandSkies am I remembering the right event? Or was it 5/25 that chasers were in open rebellion over Kerr’s outlook LOL
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I'm not sure because I think the post you're referring to was in the ST Discord and the archive doesn't go back that far anymore.

However, I think it was in regards to 5/25 because for 4/2 it was actually Broyles who issued the initial Day 2 outlook with the Enhanced including a small 10% (unhatched) tornado contour. Then Goss came in and issued the 15% hatched MDT containing parts of Ohio that had been in the Marginal and even general thunder area before, which predictably (due to the strong positively tilted nature of the system) ended up FCAD'ing hard.

For May 25, it was Kerr who issued the original, more conservative Day 2 outlook. Which, despite some indications to the contrary at the time, ended up being closer to reality.

I definitely have to "re-evaluate" my opinion of Mr. Broyles because I've long thought of him as the one who is usually excessively bullish regarding tornado potential.
 
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