Severe Weather 2025

[Kds86z]

Based on what it seems the threat will be nocturnal.

6pm central now..

 

[lake.effect]

Notice the guy who turns into a drone. Good ol Gemini.

To think AI generated this is a minute with some simple text prompt is crazy.
And people still think it's "just predicting the next word"
lol

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

These storms southeast of Lubbock might be out first big hail producers. lotsa vertical integrated liquid.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

it's worth noting the NAM 3km doesn't show any cells making it to central Oklahoma

 

[joshoctober16]

everyone please be safe if your in Oklahoma , its likely going to be a day of intense deviant hybrid tornadoes.

could very well be a day with a lot of fatalities if one forms in the wrong spot.

don't get close to these tornadoes , it could likely be similar to a jarrell / plainfield like event

 

[joshoctober16]

could be the first sign of the event

 

[Jbop]

everyone please be safe if your in Oklahoma , its likely going to be a day of intense deviant hybrid tornadoes.

could very well be a day with a lot of fatalities if one forms in the wrong spot.

don't get close to these tornadoes , it could likely be similar to a jarrell / plainfield like event
View attachment 43171
View attachment 43172

Just to make sure I'm reading this correctly you think something like the Jarrell tornado could happen with this event?

 

[joshoctober16]

Just to make sure I'm reading this correctly you think something like the Jarrell tornado could happen with this event?

sadly kind of yes.

but a slightly less cape , more sheared , more wet , and instead of the boundary being vertical its more horizontal
the rest is pretty jarrell like.

you might of herd how Plainfield had no warning , or how jarrell's risk wasn't that high and then boom a big famous southward moving intense tornado happens.

however it seems like most models or forecast never take into account hybrid events.
there is a other event that tends to give a lot of boom and its when a MCV (Mesoscale convective vortex) passes before supercells form.

MCV and hybrid tornadoes seem to be the leading cause of tornado boom events.



if all 8 parameters fit with the (best) group , that's when to watch out.

 

[OH-IOan]

Isn’t a hybrid tornado just a landspout that transitions into a traditional tornado? What makes those more dangerous?

 

[Kds86z]

Connor on move. Says storms trying go up .

 

[joshoctober16]

Isn’t a hybrid tornado just a landspout that transitions into a traditional tornado? What makes those more dangerous?

yes and no.

there seems to be 2 hybrid tornado types.

1:transition hybrid (jarrell) (starts as a landspouts and then moves into a mesocyclone and then turns hybrid)
2:classic hybrid (elie) (starts under a mesocyclone already a hybrid)

as for more dangerous think of it like this...
if a landspout can be considered strong enough to be violent rotating column of air.... then imagen what happens if a landspout forms under or moves into a mesocyclone, pretty much its getting a double boost of both landspout and supercellier mode happening


also at this very momment MLCAPE is over 5500+ and SBCAPE is over 6500+

 

[eep]

Isn’t a hybrid tornado just a landspout that transitions into a traditional tornado? What makes those more dangerous?

I think he is saying that tornadoes will start as landspouts then latch onto any nearby supercells? I think the emphasis is less on hybrids and more on actual intense tornado possibility.

Hybrids also aren't very different than normal tors, I think Greenfield may have started as a landspout.

 

[joshoctober16]

I think he is saying that tornadoes will start as landspouts then latch onto any nearby supercells? I think the emphasis is less on hybrids and more on actual intense tornado possibility.

Hybrids also aren't very different than normal tors, I think Greenfield may have started as a landspout.

greenfield was a transitional hybrid tornado. i think it was the only quick moving one as well.

 

[Atlantic]

Connor on move. Says storms trying go up .

This may be it I think;

 

[Kds86z]

“Come on storms”

 

[A Guy]

Isn’t a hybrid tornado just a landspout that transitions into a traditional tornado? What makes those more dangerous?

I'd more be asking why particular scheme he's presenting evades scientific literature and mischaracterises certain events (like Joplin)

 

[joshoctober16]

I'd more be asking why particular scheme he's presenting evades scientific literature and mischaracterises certain events (like Joplin)

note i never stated joplin was a hybrid tornado, i did state the events that had all Green were likely however (joplin had some yellow on that graph)

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

We have a blip! Very surprisingly (for how tiny it is) It's already showing up on velocity with 40 kt winds.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

I'd more be asking why particular scheme he's presenting evades scientific literature and mischaracterises certain events (like Joplin)

I for one think his research is awesome, and I love his outside the box thinking. Absolutely nothing wrong with it, even if it ends up being wrong.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

0010 UTC and no watch for OK...