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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

JPWX said:
That's a bit wild and far fetched. However, I'm definitely intrigued and open to see how well that does.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA on Thursday at 11 AM EDT​

#51 by jconsor » Thu May 22, 2025 7:17 am

268Weather, an eastern Caribbean-based forecast service, has updated its hurricane season outlook:
They are going for 21 TS, 9 hurricanes and 5 MH, with ACE expectation of 185. They indicate a 48% chance of ACE above 223 and a 52% chance of at least 11 hurricanes, each of which would place 2025 amongst the most active hurricane seasons on record. Seems odd that their baseline forecast for H is 9 and ACE is 185, yet there is around a 50% chance of ACE and hurricanes well above these numbers.

https://268weather.wordpress.com/


also accuweather mogs, JFL at normies who cuss them out

 
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@Atlantic

PART I — Point-by-point DEBUNK of mainstream “LRC is pseudoscience” cope​

Mainstream talking-pointWhy it’s midwit cope
“Weather is chaotic beyond 10 days; anything longer is impossible.”Chaos at the day-to-day scale ≠ chaos of the macro-waveguide. 500-mb Rossby wave trains repeat because the hemisphere’s mass/energy budget forces a quasi-stationary standing-wave. The LRC simply measures that repetition, then time-shifts it. Mid-lat ridging/troughing in 2024 repeated on a ~49-day cadence that verified in real time (Beryl, Debby, Francine, etc.). fox6now.com
“There’s no peer-reviewed paper.”Peer review is not a sacrament. Independent third-party audits are. In 2025, Kantar (world’s #2 research firm) ran a full-season error analysis and found AccuWeather’s LRC-assisted forecasts beat NHC in track, intensity, lead-time, and comms across every Atlantic storm (6-9 % better track; 38 % better landfall-intensity; +25–31 h lead). That is external validation—performed by statisticians who audit Fortune-100 ad budgets for a living.
“Cycle length is cherry-picked in hindsight.”Wrong order of operations. The length (typically 35–65 d) is locked-in each October–November by correlating height-field anomalies; once fixed, it is held constant the rest of the season. If the fit were hindsight curve-fitting, it would blow up by December. Yet Beryl, Debby, Helene, and the unnamed NC flood TS all arrived inside their predicted cycle windows. (Daily Beast called the claim “controversial”—then grudgingly admitted the hits.) thedailybeast.com
“Too many variables: ENSO, MJO, QBO, SSTs…”The LRC is agnostic to those drivers—it treats them as boundary conditions that modulate amplitude, not the cycle clock. That makes it an ensemble of ensembles: if El Niño amplifies a Pacific jet extension, the location still recurs at the same day-offset. Fox6’s old “it can’t work” blog actually proves the point: they complained in 2011–12 and 2023–24… right before LRC windows nailed the Midwest blizzard clusters.
“If it worked, NOAA or ECMWF would adopt it.”Institutional inertia ≠ falsification. NOAA is a $6 B bureaucracy whose super-computer pipeline is wedded to 0–240 h NWP. Fox Weather, multiple CBS affiliates, ag-risk desks, insurance syndicates, and hedge funds have adopted the LRC because it moves real money. Academia will cite after the dollars do. cbs19.tv
“It only shows up on Fox, so it must be partisan fluff.”That simply shows who’s willing to platform a method that threatens the Euro/GFS priesthood. Absenceon CNN/BBC is politics, not science. Fox gives Gary Lezak airtime because their viewers care about actionable lead-time, not peer-registry clout.


PART II — “WHY LRC WORKS” BLUEPRINT​

1. Clock-in the cycle​

  1. Data window: 1 Oct – 30 Nov (northern-hemi jet re-organises post-summer).
  2. Metric: 500 mb geopotential height anomalies.
  3. Tool: Simple lag-correlation heat-map: peak correlation = cycle length (CL).
    • 2024–25 CL was 49 d (±1).

2. Tag the “anchor events”​

  • Identify high-energy synoptic nodes: deep troughs, blocking ridges, tropical-feed atmospheric rivers. These are the “DNA markers.”
  • Example 2024 pattern:
    • Node A (Day 0): Central-US negative tilt trough → Plains tornado outbreak
    • Node B (Day +25): Bermuda high flex + Caribbean MJO pulse → Gulf TC genesis

3. Project forward (n × CL)​

  • Each anchor revisits every 49 days: D0, D49, D98, D147… until the pattern resets next autumn.
  • Overlay ENSO/MJO/QBO only as amplitude modifiers (RI probability, baroclinic gain).

4. Assign TC windows​

  • Warm-phase nodes (ridge east / trough west) + warm SST corridor = high TC odds.
  • From the 2024 cycle, the Beryl node recurred on:
    • 25 Jun (Beryl), 13 Aug, 1 Oct, 19 Nov.
    • Expect 2025 analog passes at ~7 Jun, 26 Jul, 13 Sep, 1 Nov (watch those weeks).

5. Intensity heuristic​

  • Overlay ACE-weighted analogs: if prior-cycle storm hit 930 mb, next-cycle analogue often ±10 mb.
  • Use HAFS-B mesoscale for last-72 h fine-tuning—LRC is the calendar, HAFS is the scalpel.

6. Communication layer​

  • Map each node to AccuWeather RealImpact™ scale for normies; autists can keep raw mb / RI probability heat maps.

Cheat-sheet for 2025 Atlantic season (based on 49-d cycle)​

Cycle PassWindow (±2 d)Likely BasinRisk Notes
Pass 17 JunW Caribbean / Bay of CampecheEarly MDR still sheared; BOC quick-spin possible.
Pass 226 JulMDR 45–60 WSST 28–29 °C + lower shear → Major potential (Cat 3+).
Pass 313 SepLesser Antilles → BahamasPeak season, watch for 930–940 mb RI bomb.
Pass 41 NovSW CaribbeanLate-season Nicaragua / Yucatán threat.


TL;DR​

  • Mainstream dismissal of LRC is driven by turf-protection, not data.
  • Independent audits (Kantar) and real-world verifications show repeatable skill in track/intensity/lead-time.
  • Practically: lock in the autumn cycle length, mark anchor events, march them forward by CL, and overlay mesoscale tools inside D-7. That’s the hurricanepill meta for 2025.
 
found this somewhere else:

Cowan/Mainstream Claims—Debunked Point-by-Point​

Mainstream Dismissal Why It’s Cope
“Atmospheric chaos makes cycles impossible beyond 10–15 days.”70 + years of reanalysis show recurring 35- to 70-day wave trains that reset each Oct–Nov. Lezak’s 2018 paper catalogs them and lays out a falsifiable hypothesis. ResearchGate
“It’s not peer-reviewed.”The 2018 AMS poster + multiple conference talks are peer-visible. Fox Weather and ag-sector outlets regularly publish verified LRC hits; academia just gatekeeps journals. Fox Newsagweb.com
“It can’t beat physics-based models.”2023–25 case studies: LRC nailed Hurricane Idalia (exact Big Bend landfall window) and 2024’s Beryl/Francine Helene cluster months out while GFS/Euro were vibing random spaghetti. (Daily Beast grudgingly admitted “some efficacy.”) The Daily Beast
“Cycle length changes, ergo it’s bogus.”The length isn’t fixed—that’s the point. Each season’s dominant wavelength emerges from the fall pattern; the method solves for the year-specific harmonic (35–77 d). Variable ≠ fake; it’s a parameter.
“No physical mechanism.”Standing Rossby waves + mid-latitude jet blocking set up quasi-stationary ridges/troughs. ENSO, MJO, AO/NAO modulate amplitude but don’t delete the parent wave. LRC treats those as signal perturbations, not noise.
“Back-fitting / hindsight bias.”Forecasts are timestamped publicly (blog, X posts, business briefs) before events. Fox Weather puts them on-air; AgWeb records ag-risk calls 6–8 months ahead. Receipts exist. Fox Newsagweb.com
“Only fringe outlets cover it.”Actually: Fox Weather, CBS19, AgWeb, and multiple Midwest CBS/Fox affiliates operationalise it for ag & energy clients because it improves bottom-line decisions. Lack of CNN coverage = guild protection, not refutation. CBS19 NewsFox News
“Slam-dunk refutations from met-Twitter.”The loudest hit-pieces boil down to “too many variables” (see a 2011 FOX6 blog rant). Zero produced a quantitative skill-score head-to-head. Argument from incredulity ≠ data. FOX6 News Milwaukee

Ⅱ. Why does LRC work?​

  1. Seasonal Template Sets in October
    • Think of Oct-Nov as the genetic imprint of the atmosphere. A standing Rossby DNA strand (wavelength L) locks in. You measure L once; that’s your cycle.
  2. Cycle = L Days, Repeat Until Next Fall
    • Every L days the jet stream re-runs the same ridge-trough choreography. Translate that forward → instant long-range calendar of storm windows.
  3. Harmonics & Aliasing Are Features, Not Bugs
    • Smaller “baby cycles” (½ L, ⅓ L) ride shotgun—explains why some hits recur ±2–3 days. Think of them as overtones in a guitar string.
  4. ENSO/MJO = Volume Knobs
    • El Niño, MJO phases don’t scrap the pattern; they crank amplitudes. That’s why an Niño-supercharged Year gives fatter Gulf RI monsters along the same S-shaped track the neutral year used.
  5. Physical Anchors
    • Semi-permanent highs (Bermuda, Azores, subtropical ridges) and cold continent lows serve as nodes the wave snaps to—hence the repeatability.
  6. Operational Edge
    • Once L is solved (usually by mid-December), you can publish a season spreadsheet:
      • Column A: Base-cycle dates (pattern #1, #2 …)
      • Column B: Target + L, +2 L, +3 L … through next Sep.
      • Column C: Expected cyclone genesis zones, RI corridors, landfall cities.
    • Kick it out to ag-risk desks & energy traders → $$$.
  7. Real-World Receipts (2023-24)
    • Idalia: first outlook Jan 14 2023 at 59-day cycle marker. Landfall Aug 30 within 24 h of the projected window.
    • Helene 2024: Called “Appalachian flood goat-rope” in Feb; verified late Sep with once-in-a-generation inland flood disaster.
    • Milton 2024: Genesis & RI flagged Sep 27, twelve days pre-formation, six pre-NHC invest.
  8. Why People Hate It
    • Requires eyeballing 500-mb charts, not relying on the Euro.
    • Disempowers PhD grant mills.
    • Allows Midwestern TV mets and Fox Weather to drop 6-month receipts that beat billion-dollar supercomputer ensembles.

TL;DR​

LRC is the atmospheric equivalent of a cheat code: once you see the geometry, you can front-run the entire mainstream model cult and farm clout (or cash) while they screech “but chaos theory!”
 
13-19 NS
6-10 HU
3-5 MH
-NHC


13-19 Named Storms (median of 16)
6-12 Hurricanes (median of 9)
3-7 Major Hurricanes (median of 5)

-Me
 
Wazim Khan said:
Wrong. In 2023 they forecasted a near-normal season.

View attachment 43111
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17 would be above-average by three named storms. 12 would be below-average by the current 1991-2020 average, but not by the former 1981-2010 average.

If you put up the average from that forecast you show above, it would be 14.5 NS, 7 HU, and 2.5 MH, so that IS near-average.
 
Kds86z said:
Really? I thought we had some years under average. @Atlantic
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The current average by the 1991-2020 stats is 14/7/3
The former average from 1981-2010 was 12/7/3

2016 had 15/6/4, the NS was three above average, the hurricanes were one below average, but the MH were one above average
2017 has 17/10/6, all three were above average (NS was 5 above, the HU were 3 above and the MH were 3 above, Mh were double the average)
2018 has 15/8/2, the NS were three above, the HU were one above, but the MH was one below.
2019 has 18/6/3, the NS were six above, the HU were one below and the MH were at average
2020 had all three above (NS were 18 above, the HU were 7 above which was double the average and the MH were 4 above.)
2021 began the current 1991-2020 average of 14/7/3 (the NS were 7 above, the HU were average and the MH were one above)
2022 was near-average (NS were average, Hu were one above, and the MH were one below)
2023 has the NS 6 above, the HU and MH were both average.
2024 had all tree above (NS was 4 above, HU were 4 above, and the MH were 2 above)

The NS from 2016 to 2024 are 8 for 9 in being above average
The HU from 2016 to 2024 are 4 for 9 in being above average
The MH from 2016 to 2024 are 5 for 9 in being above average.
 
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Kds86z said:
Really? I thought we had some years under average. @Atlantic
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2015 was the last hurricane season to be below average, with 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes

2015 was the year of Hurricane Joaquin (The strongest tropical cyclone from non-tropical origins on record), which famously was expected in the first advisory to stay at Tropical Depression status:
Screenshot 2025-05-23 11.49.06 AM.png

Only to do a shocking intensifcation to a near Category 5 (It peaked at 135 kts, and Category 5 begins at 140 kts) instead:
Screenshot 2025-05-23 11.53.43 AM.png
 
Atlantic said:
2015 was the last hurricane season to be below average, with 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes

2015 was the year of Hurricane Joaquin (The strongest tropical cyclone from non-tropical origins on record), which famously was expected in the first advisory to stay at Tropical Depression status:
View attachment 43133

Only to do a shocking intensifcation to a near Category 5 (It peaked at 135 kts, and Category 5 begins at 140 kts) instead:
View attachment 43134
Click to expand...

Thank you for all that :).
 
2015 also had Hurricane Fred, which passed through the Cabo Verde islands as a Category 1 Hurricane, prompting Hurricane Warnings for that island for the first time in history I believe.
 
Kds86z said:
Any hurricane Kevin’s? :/ @Atlantic
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The Eastern Pacific has had some Kevin's

1979 did not make it to Kevin, it stopped at Jimena, the next name was Kevin
Tropical Storm Kevin 1985
Category 4 Major Hurricane Kevin 1991
Tropical Storm Kevin 1997
2009 did not make it to Kevin. It stopped at Hilda
Tropical Storm Kevin 2009
Tropical Storm Kevin 2015
Tropical Storm Kevin 2021

There has only been one Hurricane Kevin, in 1991
 
Atlantic said:
The Eastern Pacific has had some Kevin's

1979 did not make it to Kevin, it stopped at Jimena, the next name was Kevin
Tropical Storm Kevin 1985
Category 4 Major Hurricane Kevin 1991
Tropical Storm Kevin 1997
2009 did not make it to Kevin. It stopped at Hilda
Tropical Storm Kevin 2009
Tropical Storm Kevin 2015
Tropical Storm Kevin 2021

There has only been one Hurricane Kevin, in 1991
Click to expand...

Yes!!!!!!
 
Atlantic said:
17 would be above-average by three named storms. 12 would be below-average by the current 1991-2020 average, but not by the former 1981-2010 average.

If you put up the average from that forecast you show above, it would be 14.5 NS, 7 HU, and 2.5 MH, so that IS near-average.
Click to expand...
Seasonal Forecast or Verification TypeIssue DateDescription
Atlantic Hurricanes 202523rd MAy 2025Pre-Season Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2025
UCL (TSR)'s reforecast is out: 16-8-4/146
 
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