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Severe Weather Threat May 20-21, 2025

Here's today's SPC storm report trend:

StormReportTrend.PNG

Note that things really start to crank up starting around 18-19Z (1-2 PM CDT), but the tornado reports start jumping up after 22Z (5 PM CDT). We'll have to see what the tornado report trend ends up looking like as we move into the night...
 
Cells still spinning out in MS. This storm, which has undergone a variety of evolutions over the past couple hours, is very small but still has a well-defined mesocyclone.
1747788880369.png
 
Equus said:
Color me surprised at how long these have remained discrete, we're still on the semi discrete side of mixed mode here at nearly 8pm over most of the area. Very interesting evening for late May
Click to expand...
I recall that earlier today, one of us (@UncleJuJu98 IIRC) expressed a feeling that things were going to lean more towards the higher end of today's potential, and right now things seem to have already been doing just that!
 
Hook city. Most of these are probably just brief/transient circulations, but this is a great demonstration of what we're dealing with kinematics-wise.
1747789261878.png
 
New Day 1 connective outlook:

fema04_swody1.png


fema04_swody1_TORN.png


1747789445642.png
 
TOG near Grant. Another circulation near Flat Rock bears close watching. Storm directly south of Owens Cross Roads also looks dangerous.
1747789390972.png1747789428282.png
 
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