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Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

Storm mode seems like the biggest issue today (I'm sensing a theme this year.) With that said, if storms can be discrete then we may be in for some more strong to intense tornadoes, especially across eastern OK. ML CAPE is already in excess of 3,000 J/kg across central OK and this looks to only get more impressive as the day goes on and it translates further east.

Something to watch for is storms across extreme eastern OK and west-central AR where the Arkansas River Valley sits. A while back there was some research done in this area that showed low-level shear tends to get enhanced due to winds favoring coming more out of the east and running up the river valley. Local mets used to call it the "freaky east wind."
 
OH-IOan said:
Also, was the CC drop near Greensburg 3.5 miles wide? That’s absolutely insane.
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I have a screenshot of it on my phone of it just north of Preston at 3.4 miles. the beam was pretty far up but I don't think the tornado was actually that wide... it was huge though. What happened last night was one of the highest end tornado's of recent history, just in the middle of nowhere... hoping none of those farmhouses along the path got hit.

Today is completely dependent on storm mode for the ceiling, pretty interesting that the OWS threat starts pretty early in the day. My work here is Tulsa is sending everybody home at noon so the word has definitely gotten out and people are paying attention.
 
Schoeppeya said:
I have a screenshot of it on my phone of it just north of Preston at 3.4 miles. the beam was pretty far up but I don't think the tornado was actually that wide... it was huge though. What happened last night was one of the highest end tornado's of recent history, just in the middle of nowhere... hoping none of those farmhouses along the path got hit.

Today is completely dependent on storm mode for the ceiling, pretty interesting that the OWS threat starts pretty early in the day. My work here is Tulsa is sending everybody home at noon so the word has definitely gotten out and people are paying attention.
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Based on pictures i’ve seen, it looked like it was 1.5-2 miles wide at times.
 
Crazy night last night. Safe to say the HRRR solution mostly verified?

For Today, we've still got a mixed bag with models.

HRRR has a bona fide outbreak for E OK, far N TX, W MO AND W AR.
NAM is more bullish with the capping and keeps outbreak potential low, particularly in OK
RAP appears more in line with HRRR although due to the low resolution it's hard to tell how is handles tornadogensis in specific threat areas.

All 3 models appear to be upping the parameter space in N TX (centered around Dallas). Will need to watched closely.
 
I Guess Ryan Hall was right about yesterday being a day we talk about for a while. The MDT has almost definetly verified in Kansas due to that supercell, and we might be in for a big one today. If storms can remain discrete then I cannot stress how primed the environment will be for intense to violent tornadoes. At its ceiling, we could have multiple strong tornadoes on the ground at once, and maybe a violent tornado or two.
 
I looked on maps where the general direction/path of the tornado was, and if seemed like it unfortunately did hit a few farmsteads. Really hope that’s not the case, but seems like we may have some sporadic instances of extremely intense damage.
 
Ozonelayer said:
I Guess Ryan Hall was right about yesterday being a day we talk about for a while. The MDT has almost definetly verified in Kansas due to that supercell, and we might be in for a big one today. If storms can remain discrete then I cannot stress how primed the environment will be for intense to violent tornadoes. At its ceiling, we could have multiple strong tornadoes on the ground at once, and maybe a violent tornado or two.
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The MDT verified without a doubt, unfortunately.
 
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