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Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

US_Highway15 said:
I agree. I feel like if there wasn't any issues with cloud cover, then I would say the ceiling was more likely scenario, but I don't feel that way anymore to be honest. I say that now and then we're gonna have an EF4 tornado go through Dodge City, or El Reno/Moore/OKC.
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How long has it been since we’ve had a diurnal, verified moderate to high end classic Oklahoma/Kansas outbreak? Last year was wild but your big storms were after dark and out east.
 
tornado examiner said:
Dry line will fire. Cells will track northeast into the area affected by cloud cover, and then they’ll all struggle for hours before one of them destroys a city at nightfall. Book it.
(Pure prediction)
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Maybe once things are all over and the results of the damage surveys have been published and parsed over, we can look back at our forecasts and see how well/poorly they ended up doing.
 
ColdFront said:
How long has it been since we’ve had a diurnal, verified moderate to high end classic Oklahoma/Kansas outbreak? Last year was wild but your big storms were after dark and out east.
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For so many years now OWS convection has simply not been able to overcome the inversion layer, and convection that initiates along the dryline grows upscale to quickly, (which is the biggest inhibit of today as well).

It’s either been a blue sky b&st or a linear yawn show. Obviously this is a good thing.
 
jiharris0220 said:
For so many years now OWS convection has simply not been able to overcome the inversion layer, and convection that initiates along the dryline grows upscale to quickly, (which is the biggest inhibit of today as well).

It’s either been a blue sky b&st or a linear yawn show. Obviously this is a good thing.
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Yep. Pending the outcome of this year’s events, worth pondering if this just some anomalous cycle we are in, just a coincidence, or are other teleconnection/climatological changes the reason.
 
jiharris0220 said:
For so many years now OWS convection has simply not been able to overcome the inversion layer, and convection that initiates along the dryline grows upscale to quickly, (which is the biggest inhibit of today as well).

It’s either been a blue sky b&st or a linear yawn show. Obviously this is a good thing.
Click to expand...
Yeah it's been a decade I feel like where Oklahoma has had a high risk/moderate risk verify that produced an El Reno/Moore type tornado. Which again is a good thing.
 
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