US_Highway15
Member
View attachment 42174
Took this in southern Kansas. I would say an upgrade to a moderate is pretty warranted for tomorrow.
Again, I believe an upgrade to a moderate is pretty warranted. This is south central Kansas:

Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
View attachment 42174
Took this in southern Kansas. I would say an upgrade to a moderate is pretty warranted for tomorrow.
View attachment 42174
Took this in southern Kansas. I would say an upgrade to a moderate is pretty warranted for tomorrow.
Thos hodographs are just itching for violence over a large area tomorrow.Again, I believe an upgrade to a moderate is pretty warranted. This is south central Kansas:
View attachment 42175
Unless the LLJ for Monday is OMEGA verified, then as of right now, I don't see really much if anything that screams HIGH risk to me, after looking at the latest NAM and GFS run. MDT? Sure, but I don't see anything that warrants a HIGH risk. SRH/shear values don't scream "tornado outbreak" to me personally, same with the hodographs.I'm going to call it now. Tommorow goes MDT and Monday gets upgraded to HIGH early-mid day 1 if trends continue.
While the SRH and shear is average, the CAPE, 3CAPE, and sharp dryline could make up for that. Hodographs on the 18z and 00z NAM looks good for supercells and tornadoes. Both the 3KM NAM and HRRR show numerous semi-discrete supercells and OWS supercells in an area of 6-12 STP. Lapse rates are decent, being in the 6.5 to 7.5 C/km range on the models I mentioned. Surface backing winds are from the south/southeast. On top of that, any outflow boundries left by storms later today could cause very quick tornadogenesis. Overall, I don't see why they can't go high risk.Unless the LLJ for Monday is OMEGA verified, then as of right now, I don't see really much if anything that screams HIGH risk to me, after looking at the latest NAM and GFS run. MDT? Sure, but I don't see anything that warrants a HIGH risk. SRH/shear values don't scream "tornado outbreak" to me personally, same with the hodographs.
Unless the LLJ for Monday is OMEGA verified, then as of right now, I don't see really much if anything that screams HIGH risk to me, after looking at the latest NAM and GFS run. MDT? Sure, but I don't see anything that warrants a HIGH risk. SRH/shear values don't scream "tornado outbreak" to me personally, same with the hodographs.
Honestly I don't think people should trust the NAMNST when it comes to reflectivity. My question in terms of if a high risk is warranted, is if Monday has the capabilities of being an outbreak of 60-80+ tornadoes, or maybe even higher? So far, I've seen nothing that says that. And to be honest, if CAPE and 3CAPE mattered that much for tornado outbreaks (they do but not to a high degree), then today should've been generational, because there were CAPE values in southern OK that were almost off the charts, like I heard 6000-7000 CAPE values were observed in southern OK, and even past the red river in Texas.While the SRH and shear is average, the CAPE, 3CAPE, and sharp dryline could make up for that. Hodographs on the 18z and 00z NAM looks good for supercells and tornadoes. Both the 3KM NAM and HRRR show numerous semi-discrete supercells and OWS supercells in an area of 6-12 STP. Lapse rates are decent, being in the 6.5 to 7.5 C/km range on the models I mentioned. Surface backing winds are from the south/southeast. On top of that, any outflow boundries left by storms later today could cause very quick tornadogenesis. Overall, I don't see why they can't go high risk.
That's a good question. I would hope that Broyles would be able to get a piece of Monday's outlook so he can put his project to the test. With how well it's worked, I wouldn't see why others wouldn't use the LLJ study test for this Monday.I haven't had time to watch through Trey's full video with Chris Broyles, so maybe these answers are in there but I'm curious if project OMEGA is fully operational yet, as in it's something all SPC outlook forecasters now use on a routine basis, or if it's something only Broyles and maybe one or two others use on an experimental basis.
True. What I'm seeing to say a D1 HIGH is possible is mainly with the HRRR and its amount of supercells. I do believe that SRH might increase as we get closer to the event, however, as it has somewhat uptrended over the past few runs from 150-200 to 250-300.Honestly I don't think people should trust the NAMNST when it comes to reflectivity. My question in terms of if a high risk is warranted, is if Monday has the capabilities of being an outbreak of 60-80+ tornadoes, or maybe even higher? So far, I've seen nothing that says that. And to be honest, if CAPE and 3CAPE mattered that much for tornado outbreaks (they do but not to a high degree), then today should've been generational, because there were CAPE values in southern OK that were almost off the charts, like I heard 6000-7000 CAPE values were observed in southern OK, and even past the red river in Texas.
look at the mpas models, cuz h o l y supercells, discrete supsTrue. What I'm seeing to say a D1 HIGH is possible is mainly with the HRRR and its amount of supercells. I do believe that SRH might increase as we get closer to the event, however, as it has somewhat uptrended over the past few runs from 150-200 to 250-300.
The return of May 20th.
May 20th two: Electric Boogaloo.The return of May 20th.