Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

[Kds86z]

And if Monday does pan out, then discrete supercells could latch on to leftover outflow boundaries, which could speed up tornadogenesis.

Well we know the plains are finicky.. we shall see but this is concerning. Oklahoma last couple high risks b***d

 

[tornado examiner]

Monday looks to be the biggest day of this sequence for sure. Prepping for the outlook issuance tonight.

 

[N0mz]

Monday looks to be the biggest day of this sequence for sure. Prepping for the outlook issuance tonight.

I'd bet on at least a d1 moderate for sunday if not also a d2 moderate for monday

 

[Ozonelayer]

Well we know the plains are finicky.. we shall see but this is concerning. Oklahoma last couple high risks b***d

True, but we can only guess given the honestly shocking amount of agreement between the HRRR and 3KM NAM.

 

[Kds86z]

True, but we can only guess given the honestly shocking amount of agreement between the HRRR and 3KM NAM.

I’ll be up late in Pa tonight waiting for the d1 and d2.

 

[Schoeppeya]

This is a HRRR forecast sounding off the dryline in Oklahoma tomorrow, has anybody ever seen a warm layer like this so close to the ground (that’s like 150m up?) and what about the setup would cause this?

 

[tornado examiner]

The lower the storm base, the better right?

 

[Ozonelayer]

I’ll be up late in Pa tonight waiting for the d1 and d2.

That makes the two of us .

 

[tornado examiner]

Three

 

[Kds86z]

That makes the two of us .

What part pa @Ozonelayer ?

 

[Ozonelayer]

The lower the storm base, the better right?

Yes.

 

[Ozonelayer]

What part pa @Ozonelayer ?

Western PA, specifically near the Pittsburgh area.

 

[Kds86z]

Western PA, specifically near the Pittsburgh area.

Cool deal. PA/MD line here south central.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Cool deal. PA/MD line here south central.

Nice, been down that way a few times. Pretty nice area all things considered.

 

[Schoeppeya]

The lower the storm base, the better right?

Well the LCL’s are fairly low but I’m referring to the cap shown on the sounding in between the ground and the LCL height (where the red line makes what looks like a nose right at the bottom) and I’m wondering what could cause that because I’ve never seen it before or if it’s an error on the output or something

 

[Kds86z]

Nice, been down that way a few times. Pretty nice area all things considered.

Hour from Gettysburg. @Ozonelayer

Ok I’m done being off topic lmao. I’m exhausted and my nap made me more tired lol.

 

[TornadoFan]

Today's supercell saw OKC and was like "LOL NOPE". That thing had other places to be.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Hour from Gettysburg. @Ozonelayer

Ok I’m done being off topic lmao. I’m exhausted and my nap made me more tired lol.

Lol, but yeah, wonder if they go D1 and D2 MDT for both Sunday and Monday. Monday has a good chance of going D1 HIGH if trends continue or God forbid worsen.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[US_Highway15]

Took this in southern Kansas. I would say an upgrade to a moderate is pretty warranted for tomorrow.