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Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

N0mz said:
Assuming you're talking about Tuesday, the CAPE is pretty solid, but IMO the low level shear just isn't there
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tennessee storm chaser said:
18zgfs has started the trend up on the shear … low level shear particular…. Tonight’s runs be interesting … euro been more agressive with shear
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ah ok. Also I will be staying up for the 2 AM D2 update to see if the upgrade to MDT.
 
Kds86z said:
Folks Monday is May 19…a tornado outbreak was supposed to happen in Oklahoma May 20, 2019 but it’s the same exact Monday.

This is weird..

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2025 is trolling us… and bringing nostalgia as well.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
18zgfs has started the trend up on the shear … low level shear particular…. Tonight’s runs be interesting … euro been more agressive with shear
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Yeah when SPC goes 30% on D4 I don't think they are concerned with shear being much of a limiting factor. And if anything, shear has increased on runs today. CSU probs are already 45-59% 4 days out.
 
OhOkayThen said:
Yeah when SPC goes 30% on D4 I don't think they are concerned with shear being much of a limiting factor. And if anything, shear has increased on runs today. CSU probs are already 45-59% 4 days out.
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SPC did mention this morning that the primary D4 risk would be large hail, followed by the potential for damaging winds. Tors were not mentioned.
 
18z 3k nam had a mid morning mcs moving east to west along the red river for tomorrow that ruins the environment and the the 0z has a mid morning mcs moving north to south across eastern Oklahoma that ruins the environment. Think it’s safe to toss that
 
Maxis_s said:
What mortifies me is that storm motion is perfectly perpendicular to the dryline. Combined with incredible shear/hodographs and ridiculous instability, I think we'll see a significant tornado outbreak with a chance for a violent tornado.
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I agree, and I really have no model support for this idea but I think we will trend towards initiating storms further south along the dryline as well.
 
Maxis_s said:
What mortifies me is that storm motion is perfectly perpendicular to the dryline. Combined with incredible shear/hodographs and ridiculous instability, I think we'll see a significant tornado outbreak with a chance for a violent tornado.
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And if Monday does pan out, then discrete supercells could latch on to leftover outflow boundaries, which could speed up tornadogenesis.
 
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