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Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

Kds86z said:


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They are already mentioning an outbreak 3 days out, and I couldn't agree more. The mere fact that the NAM 3KM was showing a semi discrete line of supercells from NE to OK with OWS supercells in KS and OK, despite the fact that it has a bias towards linear modes, in a very favorable environment for long track tornadoes is very, VERY concerning.
 
TornadoFan said:
Velocity ramping up over Ada.
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Oh?
Ozonelayer said:
They are already mentioning an outbreak 3 days out, and I couldn't agree more. The mere fact that the NAM 3KM was showing a semi discrete line of supercells from NE to OK with OWS supercells in KS and OK, despite the fact that it has a bias towards linear modes, in a very favorable environment for long track tornadoes is very, VERY concerning.
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may 3 type outbreak comes to mind. Sharp dryline and all that.
 
Kds86z said:
Oh i thought we were about done.. @US_Highway15 lol
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Nah the storm over by Amarillo is supposed to develop and push eastward into OKC later tonight. Main threat will be damaging winds and large hail, but there could be an embedded tornado threat. LCL values don't look that impressive but shear rates are in the range (between 40-50 knots) to possibly produce a couple tornadoes.
 
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