• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

Grand Poo Bah said:
I will say, looking closer at these posts, this is definitely one of the stronger EF5 candidates we've had in quite a while, so maybe I'll save the skepticism until after the surveys are done. I'll have to find some of @Sawmaster's old posts in the EF thread, and repost them there, because he made some really strong points about how a lot of older houses are actually quite a bit sturdier than most newer houses.
Click to expand...
I recommend an air of detachment towards tornado ratings at this point. Although I actually agree with some of your points, and value the fact that you at least stimulate discussions (let us always be charitable towards each other so long as posts are in good faith and not plainly stupid), the fact is that the prior (late 20th century) formula (extreme context* + ONE destroyed house of reasonably good construction) is not here today. For over 20 years we have
dealt with unduly conservative ratings. Note this predates the EF scale.

Recall also that this conservatism has bred a toxic dynamic where we all seem to be tempted to mistrust the experts, which creates a bad perception between some experts and "weenies" who feel the experts are, to paraphrase The Outlaw Josey Wales, "pissing down our backs and telling us it's raining." And it is indeed maddening that you basically have to have a Bridge Creek or Jarrell event to get an EF5 rating - which is certainly NO enhancement of the intent of Fujita - and then they wouldn't even give Vilonia its due when it was an utterly devastating tornado with little room for worse destruction.

But, it is what it is. I welcome discussions of ratings but it's best to accept the situation and focus on things with dispassion, especially since most violent tornadoes are still objectively not F5s.


*On rare occasions, as with vehichle lofts in Valley Mills, context alone was considered sufficient if it were simply absurd enough
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
You're definitely right. Good analysis. I pulled all the most extreme damage pics from the drone video shared in here, and it doesn't appear any of the houses are anchored. Still some impressive damage nonetheless, and worthy of an EF4 rating (maybe even high end). homes completely blown away deserve more respect from surveyors than they get currently, regardless of anchoring. It requires very violent winds to do this.

View attachment 42104
View attachment 42105
View attachment 42106
View attachment 42107
View attachment 42108
View attachment 42109

Here's an analysis I found on Twitter

View attachment 42110View attachment 42111

It does appear there might be one EF5 candidate (per @vemir 's post) in the rural area @ColdFront was talking about earlier.
Click to expand...
I agree with everything here. Secondly, here you have partial debarking, stabbed houses at least one of which was swept clean, little apparent granulation but some windrowing - to me this is essentially textbook "F4." I will be disappointed if they rate otherwise regardless of construction quality. I struggle to see this as anything other than EF4.
 
Maxis_s said:
View attachment 42146
I won't talk about the whole politics crap too much (because it sucks and nobody gets along), but I will say that the NWS Jackson office was fully staffed last night. That wasn't a problem this time around.
Click to expand...
I think the truth is is that even a TOR-E wouldn't have helped, nocturnal tornadoes are basically impossible to react to correctly.
 
To further dwell on my comment, imagine the steps you'd need to do to shelter correctly in that situation:

You would first need to get yourself completely awoken, while you would assume adrenaline would do that, most people just don't understand the threat of a high end tornado.

Then you would need to find an actual structure to hide in that is sturdy, which further decreases survivability significantly as most people don't know where structures like that are. Storm shelters are also probably rare in that specific region assuming soil is similar to how it is down south.

Because of all this surviving a tornado in these circumstances seems basically almost impossible IMO.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top