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Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

US_Highway15 said:
I don't understand this sentiment. What would a high risk have changed? I'm genuinely curious.
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vemir said:
regarding the high risk debate, a lot of children who were injured from the STL tornado were coming home from school, which may not have happened if we were under a high risk (which would've persuaded schools to shut down for the day)
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Isn't that more up to the local mets to get the message across? To the danger of the system. Also for people to actually pay attention
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
In regards to the scale of this outbreak and the historic comparison, I don't think tonight will top any lists. However, I think as a whole, the several day tornado outbreak sequence we're in the midst of may get up pretty high on the historic list. If it goes over 100 total tornadoes that'll make this year only the 4th in history that has had 3 or more 100+ tornado outbreak sequences. The other years are 2004, 2011, and 2024.
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I thought there were at least a few more than that.
 
Hoping for now that folks might get a bit of a respite in KY/IN. Knocking on wood. Punching, even. I wouldn't be surprised to see a temporary lull and then another upswing into a possible overnight QLCS tornado event. With the strong instability in place, could still get some strong tornadoes overnight, and a lot of lightning, alongside winds and hail, maybe some large.
 
Shakespeare 2016 said:
That is low-end EF3 to low-end EF4. There was likely 1 maybe 2 tornadoes that exceeded this threshold. Also several EF3+ tornadoes as well.
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* Ceral, IL
* Marion, IL
* Morganfield, KY
* Columbus, IN
All four of those are probable EF3+ candidates (although it's far too early to evaluate construction quality), Marion could very well have produced EF4 damage with that wind-rowed home.
 
OH-IOan said:
* Ceral, IL
* Marion, IL
* Morganfield, KY
* Columbus, IN
All four of those are probable EF3+ candidates, Marion could very well have produced EF4 damage with that wind-rowed home.
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There was also another house that was slabbed and mostly swept away. There was also significant tree debarking near the house indicating the house may have been well-built.
 
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