Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

[Shakespeare 2016]

I don't understand this sentiment. What would a high risk have changed? I'm genuinely curious.

In my opinion it wouldn't have made much of a difference if any. 3/14 was a Moderate Risk and it produced 3 50+ mile track tornadoes that day including 2 EF3'S and 1 EF4. The Diaz tornado of course was the strongest but the path length was semi long track. Like 18.62 miles.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

 

[Maxis_s]

There's literally nothing on the ground, it's just a shelf cloud. I have no idea what their thinking is issuing a PDS warning.

It's radar indicated PDS, probably because it produced a strong tornado not long ago. They'll drop it soon.

 

[TornadoFan]

New tornado warning north of Bloomington, IN.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

Sorry for the low-quality image (stuff still circulating obviously, quality isn't the biggest concern) but this is a home wiped off its foundation in Marion, IL

 

[US_Highway15]

As we've seen several other cases of, this TORP is radar-indicated. I think it's something WFOs must've started doing a few years ago, it seems like a recent development.

I understand why. I mean I vividly remember the El Reno tornado having a downstream Tornado Emergency with the line "a tornado may develop again at any time."

 

[Brice W]

I don’t see it producing anytime soon, there’s a shear line to it. I hope I’m not wrong.

 

[Maxis_s]

regarding the high risk debate, a lot of children who were injured from the STL tornado were coming home from school, which may not have happened if we were under a high risk (which would've persuaded schools to shut down for the day)

STL was barely within the enhanced risk, a high risk would not have solved that unless it included STL (which I would disagree with)
Still incredibly unfortunate to hear that news though

 

[TornadoFan]

I wouldn't rule out the Bowling Green supercell at this point.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Marion, IL is at minimum EF-3. I don't doubt there were at least 2 other EF-3+'s.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

Yeah, no doubt we've seen strong to violent tornadoes.

 

[eosaurora13]

Sarah Kassabian has significant damage in Morganfield, KY on Ryan Hall's stream.

 

[US_Highway15]

regarding the high risk debate, a lot of children who were injured from the STL tornado were coming home from school, which may not have happened if we were under a high risk (which would've persuaded schools to shut down for the day)

With it being a metropolitan area, I don't think they would've shut down the schools for the day. St. Louis was barely in the MOD risk, so they probably wouldn't have been placed in the HIGH risk anyways.

 

[Atlantic]

Could this produce? (Just right of center)

 

[Clancy]

I wouldn't rule out the Bowling Green supercell at this point.

I thought maybe it'd be heading into a less favorable zone, but it's still got a good environment way out ahead of it.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Emergency management near Bloomington, IN reporting leveled homes.

 

[Brice W]

I thought maybe it'd be heading into a less favorable zone, but it's still got a good environment way out ahead of it.
View attachment 41975

It’s getting better organized too.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

In regards to the scale of this outbreak and the historic comparison, I don't think tonight will top any lists. However, I think as a whole, the several day tornado outbreak sequence we're in the midst of may get up pretty high on the historic list. If it goes over 100 total tornadoes that'll make this year only the 4th in history that has had 3 or more 100+ tornado outbreak sequences. The other years are 2004, 2011, and 2024.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Emergency management near Bloomington, IL reporting leveled homes.

IL or IN? Bloomington IL would be a surprise since it did not get hit with a rotating storm

 

[Clancy]

Not a tornado doctor, but I don't think the ex-Morganfield storm is gonna imminently produce (thankfully).