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Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

tennessee storm chaser said:
Would not surprise me least by the 1130 update see the moderate risk expanded some
South and East . Leaves room for at least a small high risk over portions of lower Ohio valley… if hrrr continues this trend
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I know Broyles has that pink sharpie ready lol.
( All jokes )

In all seriousness, this latest HRRR trends are showing a pretty serious day that could unfold. I really hope nothing terrible comes into fruition.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
I've never seen them predict a specific, long-track tornado path before. So strange. It sounds like the same monster cell @andyhb first spotted a few days ago.
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I don't read this as predicting a specific long-track tornado that will take this route, but rather that these specific areas are where the best chance for a strong, long-track tornado are, and if one happens, it is most likely to be in these areas.

Edit: Basically it's as if they were adding a very special map marking, similar to hatching, but just for long-track strong tornadoes in the area described.
 
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You can see the HRRR has a little secondary surface low this afternoon that allows the winds to back across a localized area across southern Indiana which I would assume is why it’s printing that massive helicity track there. Similar to a couple weeks ago, the area with southwest surface winds are probably going to struggle to produce any sustained strong rotation although the surface vectors to the 500 mb are a little better this go around. I really don’t think there’s anything to support a high upgrade yet.
 
US_Highway15 said:
I don't think population matters when it comes to determining whether or not to issue a high risk, just saying.
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I coulda swore it was. I thought I had that convo with someone on here weeks ago. lol, I’ve slept since then though.

Anyway, I’m in agreement with your comments about it keeping MOD, and truly, yes, doesn’t matter if it’s a HIGH or not.
 
cg9450 said:
I coulda swore it was. I thought I had that convo with someone on here weeks ago. lol, I’ve slept since then though.

Anyway, I’m in agreement with your comments about it keeping MOD, and truly, yes, doesn’t matter if it’s a HIGH or not.
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It's not. It's based on the probabilities of the different severe hazards, which convert to a risk level according to this chart:

1747398509850.png
 
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