Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

[Kds86z]

Good chance tomorrow is a 500+ severe report day IMO given the mix of modes, very strong deep layer shear, and high instability over a large region. All three hazards could have significant events too.

Tornado threat will be contingent on the degree of veering of the surface winds. Should they stay anything close to southerly, it could be very nasty in that department.

 

[andyhb]

That second tweet regarding the other CAMs is not really true, not sure why he's saying that.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

180,000 people without power in Michigan.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

This is what I've always been told derechos look like. A sequence of storms where each storm is fueling the one in front of it. Like a radar echo. Is there any truth to this?

 

[Brice W]

So @Kds86z sent me this. I told him my jaw actually dropped. This is the most beautiful thing I have ever seen in my life

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

So @Kds86z sent me this. I told him my jaw actually dropped. This is the most beautiful thing I have ever seen in my life
View attachment 41735

Now that's a mothership! Freaking insane.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[TornadoFan]

Ironic.

 

[Kds86z]

Shall we digest the day 1?

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

15# for tornadoes now

 

[Kds86z]

View attachment 41737
15# for tornadoes now

Thanks broyles! Well he had help lol

 

[TornadoFan]

And there's the 15# for TORs.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Now, what in the actual crap, a "high-end, long track tornado will be possible"

 

[cg9450]

Shall we digest the day 1?

It’s a hard one to swallow, unfortunately.

 

[cg9450]

View attachment 41738
Now, what in the actual crap, a "high-end, long track tornado will be possible"

They’re just leaving room for a EF4-5… and they just.. know it. Cape, Shear, and Helicity numbers read like a supercell factory. I’d bet they’re waiting on those midmorning CAMs. Not sure what the population requirement to go high is, but my lord.

 

[N0mz]

NAM is forecasting some bonkers numbers. I assume theyre waiting to see what type of morning convection happens before pulling the trigger on a high. Need to see some capping to stave off the crapvection

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Several strong tornadoes appear likely, and a high-end long-track tornado will be possible from far southeast Missouri, into southern Illinois and southern Indiana, southward into western Kentucky and far northern Tennessee.

I've never seen them predict a specific, long-track tornado path before. So strange. It sounds like the same monster cell @andyhb first spotted a few days ago.