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Severe Weather 2025

There's the day 6

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...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance indicates that a generally amplified, split
mid/upper flow will persist across the mid-latitude Pacific through
North America next week. It appears that this will include at least
a couple of significant troughs digging inland of the U.S. Pacific
Coast. The first may already be in the process of developing
eastward across the Intermountain West early in this period
(Tuesday), before progressing across the Rockies, Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley during the middle through latter portion of next
week. This may be followed by another significant trough digging
inland of the Pacific coast by early next weekend.

The lead trough will be relatively close on the heels of the
remnants of an initially broad quasi-stationary/cut-off low, which
may only slowly progress east of the Mississippi Valley through
Atlantic Seaboard during the early to middle portion of next week.
Low-level moisture return, in the wake of this perturbation and
ahead of the mid-level trough emerging from the West, may continue
to be impacted across at least parts of the Great Plains into mid
week. Thereafter, there appears a general consensus that there will
be a better coupling of large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by
surface cyclogenesis, with a notable increase in low-level moisture
and destabilization across the lower Missouri Valley into the Upper
Midwest and lower Ohio Valley by late next Thursday into Thursday
night. In the presence of strong shear, it appears that this
environment could become supportive of supercells and/or one or two
organizing severe storm clusters.

Machine learning output and other guidance suggests that potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms could persist and potentially
become more widespread across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic, and
southern Great Plains, next Friday and Saturday. However,
uncertainties remain too large at this time to introduce greater
than 15 percent severe probabilities.
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Reed Timmer Extreme Meteorologist​

4m ·
SEVERE WEATHER UPTICK EXPANDS WEEK2 (MAY 17-23)
The long-range CFS forecast accumulated supercell parameter shows a major uptick in severe weather and #tornado potential from central/southern Tornado Alley all the way to the Atlantic Ocean during the May 17-23 period. Non-stop storm chasing and science ahead.
Stay tuned and enjoy the short respite from severe weather into early next week!

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Jbop said:

Reed Timmer Extreme Meteorologist​

4m ·
SEVERE WEATHER UPTICK EXPANDS WEEK2 (MAY 17-23)
The long-range CFS forecast accumulated supercell parameter shows a major uptick in severe weather and #tornado potential from central/southern Tornado Alley all the way to the Atlantic Ocean during the May 17-23 period. Non-stop storm chasing and science ahead.
Stay tuned and enjoy the short respite from severe weather into early next week!

View attachment 41190
Click to expand...
Oh wow....

Is it picking up on the long wave trough actually happening? That's a very strong signal in Dixie.
 
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CheeselandSkies said:
Didn't know he had a YouTube channel. I'm surprised it doesn't have more subscribers given how well-known he is in the weather community. It would seem he also chases, which I didn't know, either although I guess that shouldn't surprise me.
Click to expand...
It really is awesome how many of the SPC forecasters chase. Roger Edwards and Rich Thompson are probably the most well known “chasers” of the office, but Broyles doesn’t surprise me either. You probably already know this, but Edwards has some insane photographs on his blog.

I’m sure Edwards can chase full time now that he’s retired.
 
PDS warning

.A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR EASTERN
GENEVA...SOUTHWESTERN HOUSTON...NORTHWESTERN JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN
HOLMES COUNTIES...

At 1120 AM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located 10 miles north of Bonifay, moving northeast at 35 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

The tornado will be near...
Slocomb around 1140 AM CDT.
Taylor around 1150 AM CDT.
Dothan around 1155 AM CDT.
 
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