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Severe Weather 2025

Aaron Rider said:
I wasn't following the thread last night because I was busy messing around installing new control arms and whatnot on my truck and don't have time to read back through. Quick TLDR question: how many tornadoes did last night's Nebraska supercell produce?
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Not sure how many, but at least two wedge tornadoes were produced, at least one of which was likely over two miles wide.
 
Aaron Rider said:
I wasn't following the thread last night because I was busy messing around installing new control arms and whatnot on my truck and don't have time to read back through. Quick TLDR question: how many tornadoes did last night's Nebraska supercell produce?
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Short answer: Great question!
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
If you want to see a textbook example of an overreliance on models, just look at our most popular local weather station here in Iowa this morning. Completely underselling the threat. This is the same station that was focusing on a different storm as a tornado entered Greenfield last year. I hope this doesn't make people overly complacent.

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And of course comments are disabled so you can't correct their mistake at all. Very nice.
 
Still some signs for possible severe threat across the Midsouth and Southeast at the very start of May, but still not at a confidence level where it'd be reasonable to pin anything down.
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Nadocast tends to be way too bullish in its predictions for synoptically evident days, but IIRC it’s quite good at sniffing out threats on the more mesoscale days. Obviously a signal like what it’s depicting doesn’t come around very often despite Nadocast’s bullish nature, but it’s worth keeping in mind that it can be very biased towards higher ceilings.
 
slenker said:
Nadocast tends to be way too bullish in its predictions for synoptically evident days, but IIRC it’s quite good at sniffing out threats on the more mesoscale days. Obviously a signal like what it’s depicting doesn’t come around very often despite Nadocast’s bullish nature, but it’s worth keeping in mind that it can be very biased towards higher ceilings.
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Yeah and it’s why I was kind of wanting a different day 2 then a copy and paste, ugh but whatever..
 
Tanner said:
Long range signals on the global models give me confidence thaat we’re in for another active May.
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I would buy that. Coupled with some of the analog years as well as the MJO phase that was supposed to make its way back around this time. Alabama & Georgia are finished for higher end events now but I still wouldn’t write off ArkLaMiss.
 
ColdFront said:
I would buy that. Coupled with some of the analog years as well as the MJO phase that was supposed to make its way back around this time. Alabama & Georgia are finished for higher end events now but I still wouldn’t write off ArkLaMiss.
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Get ready for the boring weather to kick in soon . Hopefully we can score one more event that lis worth chasing around here in mid south ….
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Get ready for the boring weather to kick in soon . Hopefully we can score one more event that lis worth chasing around here in mid south ….
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Definetly a very active start for the south but tapered off here after early April. I still enjoy armchair chasing the plains but I do agree, once April passes around here it’s back to garden variety storms
 
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