Severe WX April 3-6 Severe weather

[Clancy]

Also, note for Georgia folks: this line may not be the last you get today. Models predict a reinvigoration of convection coinciding with LLJ-fueled instability flowing back into eastern Alabama and western Georgia. As such, additional storms are possible, especially in west-central Georgia and east-central Alabama. Helicity will also be strongest with those additional storms, so watch out for that.

 

[AJS]

Also, note for Georgia folks: this line may not be the last you get today. Models predict a reinvigoration of convection coinciding with LLJ-fueled instability flowing back into eastern Alabama and western Georgia. As such, additional storms are possible, especially in west-central Georgia and east-central Alabama. Helicity will also be strongest with those additional storms, so watch out for that.
View attachment 39352View attachment 39353

This is by far one of the craziest periods of severe weather in quite some time in my opinion.

 

[KevinH]

Also, note for Georgia folks: this line may not be the last you get today. Models predict a reinvigoration of convection coinciding with LLJ-fueled instability flowing back into eastern Alabama and western Georgia. As such, additional storms are possible, especially in west-central Georgia and east-central Alabama. Helicity will also be strongest with those additional storms, so watch out for that.
View attachment 39352View attachment 39353

That UH track goes right through my county too…… Tomorrow morning…smh

If THAT is the case, I expect the current WW to be extended or a new WW to be issued.

 

[Psalm 148:8]

Clancy, I’m praying you’re wrong! Storm weary.. really just need a day of pure rain without tornado threats.. do you have any idea when the GA/AL line might be in the clear around the LaGrange area.. we just had a svr warning.. thankfully it was a big nothing.

 

[KevinH]

Clancy, I’m praying you’re wrong! Storm weary.. really just need a day of pure rain without tornado threats.. do you have any idea when the GA/AL line might be in the clear around the LaGrange area.. we just had a svr warning.. thankfully it was a big nothing.

@Psalm 148:8 WTVM Weather 9 just had a post about the timing through tomorrow morning in their app. I would check it out (after you download the app lol)

 

[wx_guy]

Clancy, I’m praying you’re wrong! Storm weary.. really just need a day of pure rain without tornado threats.. do you have any idea when the GA/AL line might be in the clear around the LaGrange area.. we just had a svr warning.. thankfully it was a big nothing.

Speaking of LaGrange,my latest model run is centered on there! It's almost too late that I'm running it, but it may be the last severe weather event for a while, so I still wanted to try. I should have it in a couple hours.

 

[KevinH]

That cell south of Union Springs, AL and west of Clayton, AL needs to be watched......



EDIT: So does the part of the storm a little north of Fort Deposit, AL. I expect this to be warned soon.

 

[Clancy]

Clancy, I’m praying you’re wrong! Storm weary.. really just need a day of pure rain without tornado threats.. do you have any idea when the GA/AL line might be in the clear around the LaGrange area.. we just had a svr warning.. thankfully it was a big nothing.

Hoping I'm also wrong. Possible the instability doesn't wrap back around like models depict it will, so that's one possible failure point. But, in any case, would remain watchful at least until evening.

Speaking of LaGrange,my latest model run is centered on there! It's almost too late that I'm running it, but it may be the last severe weather event for a while, so I still wanted to try. I should have it in a couple hours.

Eagerly awaiting this, curious to see what it shows!

 

[KevinH]

Hoping I'm also wrong. Possible the instability doesn't wrap back around like models depict it will, so that's one possible failure point. But, in any case, would remain watchful at least until evening.

Eagerly awaiting this, curious to see what it shows!

Same. Watching IEMBot, RadarScope and NWSTornado on Twitter like:

Not expecting high impact stuff, I just want to be nosey to see what will happen here lol

and later.....

 

[KevinH]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
117 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Tornado Watch is in effect near and along the I-85 corridor from
Atlanta south to Columbus until 7 pm tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected across north and central Georgia Today
and Tonight. Some storms may become strong to severe, capable of
producing damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning. A few brief tornadoes may be possible within these line
segments.

 

[KevinH]

This is from the Ft Deposit part of the storm I mentioned earlier, I will watch this one closely as it is headed straight for me.

Dont forget about those wannabe SCs in front of this line too lol

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LOWNDES AND
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM CDT...

At 1215 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fort Deposit, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pine Level, Lowndes County Airport, Calhoun, Strata, Carters Hill,
Naftel, Meadville, Letohatchee, Fort Deposit, Pike Road, Logan,
Sprague, Sellers, Davenport, Ramer, Cecil, Pintlala, and Dublin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for south central
and southeastern Alabama.

 

[Tennie]

A coworker of mine who lives near Clarksville, TN, sent me and my other coworkers a pic of some of the flooding near his area:

View attachment 39274

Update: The same coworker who took this pic later had to abandon his apartment complex along with his family before all of the roads surrounding it became impassable. He said they're going to stay at his parent's house in Pleasant View for a night or two (give or take).

 

[Psalm 148:8]

Speaking of LaGrange,my latest model run is centered on there! It's almost too late that I'm running it, but it may be the last severe weather event for a while, so I still wanted to try. I should have it in a couple hours.

Yes I hope so!! Storm weary!!! I would have run out of anxiety meds if I had lived in west Tennessee or Arkansas!! I’ve taken my fear from Opal and turned it to education.. but no one likes being under a tornado warning..and we’ve had a couple touchdown down here within 30 minutes of me! That’s a little too close!!

 

[KevinH]

Yes I hope so!! Storm weary!!! I would have run out of anxiety meds if I had lived in west Tennessee or Arkansas!! I’ve taken my fear from Opal and turned it to education.. but no one likes being under a tornado warning..and we’ve had a couple touchdown down here within 30 minutes of me! That’s a little too close!!

SVR for the AL Co to your east. Would not be surprised if they sounded the sirens in your area. Heads up.

 

[wx_guy]

So this model run is another 2 km high resolution WRF-ARW, this time centered on LaGrange GA.


At 3 PM EDT, there is an attendant weaker tornado risk embedded in the storms stretching from ATL metro to Montgomery.







At 4 PM EDT, there is still an isolated tornado threat, including a "Moderate" level threat in the ATL metro area.




At 5 PM Eastern:




At 6 PM EDT, there is a Hail, Flood, and Tornado risk, including an isolated localized threat of higher-end tornadoes in East-central AL area.




At 7 PM Eastern, an all-threats episode continues, with a moderate tornado threat in Eastern central AL and western central GA.







At 8 PM Eastern, the line is moving agonizingly slow, and the all-threats continue.






At 9 PM Eastern:





And at 10 PM Eastern (the furthest it currently has run), the low-end threat continues overall. But again, the line is moving very slowly.







I must've tweaked something in the profiles on the left-hand side because they aren't accurately picking the "top 3" cells anymore, so I'll get that fixed. But otherwise, it looks like a low-end threat with all threats on the table this evening, with isolated pockets of locally higher potential.

 

[Kds86z]

So this model run is another 2 km high resolution WRF-ARW, this time centered on LaGrange GA.


At 3 PM EDT, there is an attendant weaker tornado risk embedded in the storms stretching from ATL metro to Montgomery.



View attachment 39360



At 4 PM EDT, there is still an isolated tornado threat, including a "Moderate" level threat in the ATL metro area.

View attachment 39361


At 5 PM Eastern:

View attachment 39362


At 6 PM EDT, there is a Hail, Flood, and Tornado risk, including an isolated localized threat of higher-end tornadoes in East-central AL area.

View attachment 39363


At 7 PM Eastern, an all-threats episode continues, with a moderate tornado threat in Eastern central AL and western central GA.


View attachment 39364




At 8 PM Eastern, the line is moving agonizingly slow, and the all-threats continue.

View attachment 39365




At 9 PM Eastern:

View attachment 39366



And at 10 PM Eastern (the furthest it currently has run), the low-end threat continues overall. But again, the line is moving very slowly.



View attachment 39367



I must've tweaked something in the profiles on the left-hand side because they aren't accurately picking the "top 3" cells anymore, so I'll get that fixed. But otherwise, it looks like a low-end threat with all threats on the table this evening, with isolated pockets of locally higher potential.

Fascinating

 

[KevinH]

So this model run is another 2 km high resolution WRF-ARW, this time centered on LaGrange GA.


At 3 PM EDT, there is an attendant weaker tornado risk embedded in the storms stretching from ATL metro to Montgomery.



View attachment 39360



At 4 PM EDT, there is still an isolated tornado threat, including a "Moderate" level threat in the ATL metro area.

View attachment 39361


At 5 PM Eastern:

View attachment 39362


At 6 PM EDT, there is a Hail, Flood, and Tornado risk, including an isolated localized threat of higher-end tornadoes in East-central AL area.

View attachment 39363


At 7 PM Eastern, an all-threats episode continues, with a moderate tornado threat in Eastern central AL and western central GA.


View attachment 39364




At 8 PM Eastern, the line is moving agonizingly slow, and the all-threats continue.

View attachment 39365




At 9 PM Eastern:

View attachment 39366



And at 10 PM Eastern (the furthest it currently has run), the low-end threat continues overall. But again, the line is moving very slowly.



View attachment 39367



I must've tweaked something in the profiles on the left-hand side because they aren't accurately picking the "top 3" cells anymore, so I'll get that fixed. But otherwise, it looks like a low-end threat with all threats on the table this evening, with isolated pockets of locally higher potential.

@Clancy @Psalm 148:8 wanted to make sure you see this

 

[MMWX]

I know NWS Memphis is nobody's favorite office, but man they've had a very hectic week.

270 warnings issued (49 flash flood warnings, 115 severe thunderstorm warnings, and 106 tornado warnings).

For context, they only issued 20 tornado warnings in all of 2024.

What a great job done by them. I think they only have 7 employees right now, and in this time of uncertainty they were amazing. I know Georgia/Alabama aren't entirely out of the woods yet, but this has been an exhausting week for the Mid-South, and today is a much needed rest day for us.

 

[wx_guy]

Okay, here's the 11PM - 2 AM window:


At 11 PM EDT, the only "threat" the algorithm picks up on is in SC, but the UH is pretty high for a Limited threat. Definitely have to be watched.



At midnight, the threat has largely subsided.



By 1 AM - 2 AM hour, only thunderstorms remain -- the algorithm doesn't pick up on any threats of important. Just rain and thunder/lightning.

 

[Tennie]

It seems that the activity this week could stretch into tomorrow, possibly even Tuesday, going by the SPC's D2-3 outlooks:

Day 2:


Day 3:


It seems that this system wants to stick around for as long as it possibly could. It's been quite a while since we've seen such a system--perhaps at least as far back as May 2019, if not further.