Severe WX April 3-6 Severe weather

[Kds86z]

 

[Maxis_s]

Tornado imminent over Lone Star, TX.

 

[TornadoFan]

Storm south of Ft Smith coming together quickly.

 

[Kds86z]

Rapid tornado genesis possible… Scott county AR

 

[Tennie]

The cell near Black Fork, Arkansas, is looking like it's engaging in some worryingly rapid development.

 

[jiharris0220]

Daingerfield storm seems to have cycled and now is re-intensifying.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Check Ryan hall stream. Crazy storm with power flashes, it's the Lonestar Texas tornado

 

[DanLarsen34]

If those updrafts can consolidate around Clinton, that could become a significant tornado producer.

 

[TornadoFan]

Tight couplet east of Jenkins, TX.

 

[jiharris0220]

NWS is putting in all of their gambling money on this linear system, with the kinematics in place it’s possible.

 

[DanLarsen34]

Cell merger with the Clinton cell is almost complete. I think we’re about to see a major tornado out of it

 

[snostorm21]

This supercell is definitely the one to watch for a potential long tracker. Has already produced and has a good prameter slace to work with as it moves north.

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

Wouldn't take much of an east shift to aim ot at Texarkana, either.

 

[Maxis_s]

T/Td spreads are fairly larger in south, central and east Arkansas. Once the temperatures cool down and the LLJ kicks in further we may see some storms form in that area, which currently has an untapped environment.

 

[Kds86z]

View attachment 39145
T/Td spreads are fairly larger in south, central and east Arkansas. Once the temperatures cool down and the LLJ kicks in further we may see some storms form in that area, which currently has an untapped environment.

Sounds familiar..

 

[OHWX97]

View attachment 39145
T/Td spreads are fairly larger in south, central and east Arkansas. Once the temperatures cool down and the LLJ kicks in further we may see some storms form in that area, which currently has an untapped environment.

Not the case further north and east near the warm front. Little to no spread at all within the vicinity of the two tornado warned cells near Mountain View, AR and Poplar Bluff, MO. Could be significant tornado potential if they can latch on to the warm front.

 

[Tennie]

It looks like the cell near Mountain View, AR, is either approaching the warm front or is already currently crossing over it.

 

[jiharris0220]

The mid level inversion over the OWS in central Arkansas is slowly being mixed out by residual moisture from the linear system.

Depending on how strong forcing becomes and how much of a role mesoscale moisture converge near the QLCS plays out, we could see some discrete development just out ahead of the line.

And like what was said earlier, due to the slow eastward progression of the linear system, these potential discrete cells will have ample time to stay out ahead of it.

 

[wx_guy]

Well I think my model (and some of the others out there) might take an L with both the discrete cellular activity and the intensity of the activity. Of course, there's still time, but the line looks to be mostly behaving.

 

[Kds86z]

The mid level inversion over the OWS in central Arkansas is slowly being mixed out by residual moisture from the linear system.

Depending on how strong forcing becomes and how much of a role mesoscale moisture converge near the QLCS plays out, we could see some discrete development just out ahead of the line.

And like what was said earlier, due to the slow eastward progression of the linear system, these potential discrete cells will have ample time to stay out ahead of it.
View attachment 39146

Thanks for that during this kind of lull..