Severe WX April 3-6 Severe weather

[Maxis_s]

Leaves room for a high perhaps..

When was the last time we had 3 high risks in a year, let alone 3 high risks before a second moderate risk?

 

[Ozonelayer]

Mother Nature try not to screw over Arkansas. Difficulty level: Impossible


But seriously, tomorrow has a high ceiling and decent floor. Wouldn't be surprised if a D1 HIGH risk is issued if more confidence is present.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The new day one is the longest and thinnest 10% hatched tornado risk I think I've ever seen

 

[ColdFront]

When was the last time we had 3 high risks in a year, let alone 3 high risks before a second moderate risk?

2017 had 3 high risk days

Edit: it was 4, forgot about the January high risk

 

[Ledian]

When was the last time we had 3 high risks in a year, let alone 3 high risks before a second moderate risk?

Four in 2017. January 22, April 2, April 5 and May 18

 

[ColdFront]

Four in 2017. January 22, April 2, April 5 and May 18

I always forget about January 22, 2017. Big time Florida outbreak

 

[TH2002]

Geez, another high-end risk area over Arkansas?

What Mother Nature did to Paraguay in 2023, she’s doing to Arkansas this year.

 

[Ledian]

I always forget about January 22, 2017. Big time Florida outbreak

I mostly only remember it because of the Albany tornado

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I always forget about January 22, 2017. Big time Florida outbreak

Actually didn't do much in Florida, despite being the only high risk in history encompassing parts of the peninsula. The only really high-end tornadoes were the two EF3s in Georgia.

 

[Parker Copeland]

Oh my gosh that is a strongly worded D2 by Bentley.

that's Bentley, my #1 fav forecaster with Broyles

 

[Kds86z]

that's Bentley, my #1 fav forecaster with Broyles

Bentley is great. Thompson was my fav

 

[Kds86z]

Tornado watch incoming

 

[Ozonelayer]

Anyone think tomorrows risk could be expanded slightly south and east? Just curious based off the model runs.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Parker Copeland]

When was the last time we had 3 high risks in a year, let alone 3 high risks before a second moderate risk?

2011?, NVM I read the chat, 2017

 

[Clancy]

This feels like problems. Thankfully highest instability is shunted south of the main mass of convection, but anything forming south of it could be real trouble.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

View attachment 38889

So once again we wait on storm mode

 

[Kds86z]

Was expecting the first watch to be Arkansas..

 

[Ledian]

Hopefully it's another day where nothing happens where i'm at. But although i'm just on the border of a 2%/5% tornado risk, still gonna keep an eye on things just in case.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The tornado/severe threat should gradually increase throughout the afternoon. The STP is very high along the warm front btw