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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

Storm west of Memphis.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0366
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT WED APR 02 2025

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN INDIANA INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OHIO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 030045Z - 030245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN
INDIANA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. A
TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR (BY 0030Z).

DISCUSSION...ALONG/SOUTH OF AN EAST/WEST-ORIENTED WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN IN/OH, AN EXPANSIVE WARM/MOIST SECTOR HAS
DEVELOPED (UPPER 50 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS). OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, A 70-80-KT LOW-LEVEL JET (AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION) WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR, PROMOTING A RAPID INCREASE IN
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
00Z ILN SOUNDING SAMPLED FAIRLY STEEP DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AND
AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE, ALONG WITH 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND A
LARGE CLOCKWISE-CURVED HODOGRAPH (AROUND 350 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH).
AS STORMS OVERSPREAD THIS ENVIRONMENT, THEY SHOULD QUICKLY INTENSIFY
INTO A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED BOWING LINE SEGMENTS --
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA WITHIN THE HOUR (BY
0030Z).

..WEINMAN/HART.. 04/03/2025

no sleep up this way tonight.
 
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