Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[lake.effect]

So far 00z HRRR is showing a weaker cap than previous runs...this is trending in a dangerous direction.

 

[JPWX]

At this point this evening, I'm too tired to even begin to dig in and look at what models show/don't show for North MS Wednesday. I'll have to tomorrow though.

 

[jiharris0220]

sounding #1 is classic low CAPE/high shear tornado risk (with some potential capping issues)

sounding #2 is the most capped sounding in the history of caps

Important to keep in mind that the FV3 tends to under do CAPE, the over mixing causes drier air and a flatter cooling gradient in the vertical which cuts down on CAPE values.

 

[Kds86z]

So we got 3 day 1’s in a row to look out for. I’ll be awake for day 1 and 2.

 

[Muwx]

So far 00z HRRR is showing a weaker cap than previous runs...this is trending in a dangerous direction.

But doesn’t convect until several hours after the 18z run. Odd.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

But doesn’t convect until several hours after the 18z run. Odd.

hrrr does that, cams might not show convection for tmr until tmr afternoon, and the event is like purely nocturnal

 

[lake.effect]

But doesn’t convect until several hours after the 18z run. Odd.

Noticed that. Odd run. The helicity tracks in the northern risk area in the more recent run are noticeably more intense, but there are a few tracks showing up around OKC which is did not show before. It's not a great trend. If morning models / observations continue to weaken the cap we're definitely looking at a volatile day tomorrow.

 

[OhOkayThen]

Good luck to SPC with tomorrow

 

[AJS]

So far 00z HRRR is showing a weaker cap than previous runs...this is trending in a dangerous direction.

Yeah, I didn’t like the look of the latest run. Cap looked weaker and helicity tracks looked a bit more intense.

 

[US_Highway15]

Soundings pulled from Oklahoma City in the latest HRRR run. Absolutely crazy numbers. P.S. Finding fully non-contaminated soundings from the HRRR is about as enjoyable as hearing nails on a chalkboard.




Here's the rest of the map from Pivotal:
EHI 0-1km values. Very dangerous numbers.


STP numbers from Pivotal:


00z HRRR has storms initiating in Oklahoma during the early morning hours. I find this very hard to believe.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

0Z HRRR does fire one lone, chonker of a supercell at/after 01Z in southern Kansas, in the northern reaches of that EHI plume.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

carnage. just carnage. holy moly

 

[AJS]

Soundings pulled from Oklahoma City in the latest HRRR run. Absolutely crazy numbers. P.S. Finding fully non-contaminated soundings from the HRRR is about as enjoyable as hearing nails on a chalkboard.
View attachment 38060

View attachment 38062

Here's the rest of the map from Pivotal:
EHI 0-1km values. Very dangerous numbers.

View attachment 38064
STP numbers from Pivotal:
View attachment 38065

00z HRRR has storms initiating in Oklahoma during rush hour. I find this very hard to believe.

View attachment 38066

Sweet mother at those EHI values…

 

[AJS]

View attachment 38067
carnage. just carnage. holy moly

This for Wednesday?

 

[OhOkayThen]

Oh. My. HRRR. (Wednesday)

 

[US_Highway15]

View attachment 38067
carnage. just carnage. holy moly

Those things stay discrete too well into the southern Ohio Valley.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

This for Wednesday?

Yes. This is for Wednesday.....

 

[AJS]

Seems like we may have two big severe weather days back to back. Really hoping the Cap tomorrow doesn’t erode and limits the storms from developing.

 

[lake.effect]

Let me save you some time looking at the 00Z HRRR....

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

View attachment 38068
Those things stay discrete too well into the southern Ohio Valley.

That one cell is uncomfortably close to Columbus