Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

That's not really saying this is going to be like the super outbreak though.

yup, not sure why they said that

 

[CheeselandSkies]

This setup is not very analogous to that particular one. The shear profiles tomorrow from like 4-5 PM onwards are the type where if you give them an inch, they'll take a country mile.

Fair point. Those hodographs are nothing to sneeze at.

 

[TheSuckZone]

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Sounding(s) pulled from Oklahoma City. 18z NAM goes in on the cap breaking. These numbers + hodograph are crazy.

4000 ML Cape at 4am

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

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Sounding(s) pulled from Oklahoma City. 18z NAM goes in on the cap breaking. These numbers + hodograph are crazy.

So what's the parameter that stops that from being a PDS sounding?

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

Has the forecast for severe hazards in the North Texas region now shrunk compared to yesterday's model runs?

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

So what's the parameter that stops that from being a PDS sounding?

do not use poss hazard type, its utter crap and its best to just ignore it

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I know it's reed timmer so don't give me slack lol, thought I'd share.

 

[Kds86z]

I know it's reed timmer so don't give me slack lol, thought I'd share.

Supercell development that far southwest? Hmmm

 

[Kds86z]

Has the forecast for severe hazards in the North Texas region now shrunk compared to yesterday's model runs?

Doesn’t seem to be a risk for north Texas much tomorrow @Ebaad Jaffery

 

[Kds86z]

Has the forecast for severe hazards in the North Texas region now shrunk compared to yesterday's model runs?

If you look at day 2 for tomorrow.

Has the forecast for severe hazards in the North Texas region now shrunk compared to yesterday's model runs?

Though SPC does have north Texas in slight risk and some hatched probs for hail. @Ebaad Jaffery

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

If you look at day 2 for tomorrow.

Though SPC does have north Texas in slight risk and some hatched probs for hail. @Ebaad Jaffery

They do interestingly say this though:
"
but significant severe storms will be possible farther south
into Oklahoma and north Texas as well. All hazards are possible,
including the potential for very large hail and a couple strong
tornadoes.
"

 

[Kds86z]

They do interestingly say this though:
"
but significant severe storms will be possible farther south
into Oklahoma and north Texas as well. All hazards are possible,
including the potential for very large hail and a couple strong
tornadoes.
"

True! I missed that somehow! My bad! @Ebaad Jaffery . I just read it lol

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

True! I missed that somehow! My bad! @Ebaad Jaffery . I just read it lol

It's all good, definitely interesting. Now piecing together what @UncleJuJu98 just posted, the X quote from Reed Timmer, would that be enough positive change for the expansion of the ENH? "Slight Risk has been maintained across parts of OK/TX, but an increase in the signal for storm development along the dryline would necessitate one or more categorical upgrades across this area." (SPC Day 2).

 

[Kds86z]

It's all good, definitely interesting. Now piecing together what @UncleJuJu98 just posted, the X quote from Reed Timmer, would that be enough positive change for the expansion of the ENH? "Slight Risk has been maintained across parts of OK/TX, but an increase in the signal for storm development along the dryline would necessitate one or more categorical upgrades across this area." (SPC Day 2).

Not sure but we will know more tomorrow @Ebaad Jaffery

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Sure seems like tomorrow might be a bigger event than Wednesday

 

[Bulkshear]

Sure seems like tomorrow might be a bigger event than Wednesday

I wouldn’t say that if I were you….Apparently you haven’t seen the new 18z NAM

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I wouldn’t say that if I were you….Apparently you haven’t seen the new 18z NAM

Yeah , Wednesday still the big day

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

I wouldn’t say that if I were you….Apparently you haven’t seen the new 18z NAM

Ehhhh it seems to be an outlier so far, but yeah that's a good capture of how this bus...er, underperforms

 

[Kds86z]

Sure seems like tomorrow might be a bigger event than Wednesday

Tomorrow is more conditional for discrete but weds has lot of questions also.. idk

 

[wx_guy]

Okay, so finally, I have some data about this event from my model. This is centered at Jonesboro, Arkansas with a 3 km resolution. Let's dig in!
Sadly, my window clips just the far eastern edges of Oklahoma and Kansas, so I may need to do another run centered on tomorrow's threat. Stay tuned.


First off, perhaps the biggest story (beyond the rest of the severe weather even) will be the rainfall amounts. The model projects some areas to get 7-10 inches of rain (the dark orange is 10-15 inches of rain), and this model ends at 96 hours past 06z this morning --> with heavy convective rainfall across this same area present at the model's end. So flooding rains will be a huge problem.





Next up is the Vertically Integrated Graupel. Graupel in storms often leads to more intense storm cores with frequent lightning and large hail. You can see a bevy of storms over the forecast period, with numerous large intense storm cores (the white spots).




The Hodograph Curvatures (measured by the area formed under the hodographs) is quite high across much of the area as well, indicating their well could be great opportunities for storms to take advantage of that rotation and ventilation.




As far as the threats go, the algorithm for Threat Potential Overlay doesn't pick up on anything at all until Wednesday evening (again, KS and OK are mostly chopped off and out of view...). It begins as a Wind threat...





By 5 PM, the tornado threat begins in earnest and with a High potential tagged.






By 6 PM, I think it's fair to say all hell is breaking lose...





7 PM (oz on Thursday):





This general pattern continues until about midnight Wednesday night/Thursday morning...


Where it then transition into a high-wind threat in Kentucky and Tennessee. Notice the Flash Flood risk starting over in Arkansas, too.






Things are then relatively quiet for a few hours...then...all hell breaks lose again Thursday night:




And this saga continues until the model ends a little after midnight on Thursday/Friday morning.








Here's an uninterrupted animation of just the Composite Radar (no threat overlay). Notice the extreme training of cells -- this is going to be a big problem.





Overall, this setup is really, really ugly and has a high ceiling. I would say the plethora of storms showing up and all the potential outflow boundaries and convective damping that may occur because of all the training may put the halt on some of this, hopefully? But taken verbatim, this is quite the setup unfolding.