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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

ColdFront said:
Curious if that’s slightly convectively contaminated. That’s an insanely deep, saturated moist layer to almost 600 MB for NE Arkansas. Especially for 03Z.
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Yeah it seems to be very slightly contaminated, but not enough to do something like that. My general rule of thumb is that a sounding is uncontaminated enough if there aren't any red bars on the left side clipping into the skew-t chart which is the case here
 
Maxis_s said:
Yeah it seems to be very slightly contaminated, but not enough to do something like that. My general rule of thumb is that a sounding is uncontaminated enough if there aren't any red bars on the left side clipping into the skew-t chart which is the case here
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That may just be a NAM run-quirk because I’ll be shocked if the moist layer is that deep in NE Arkansas, especially after you factor in some mixing.
 
ColdFront said:
That may just be a NAM run-quirk because I’ll be shocked if the moist layer is that deep in NE Arkansas, especially after you factor in some mixing.
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It might not be. I checked some other models, and while they do have differences, they are pretty consistent in showing either strong moisture all the way up or a T/Td spread beginning after around 600-700mb.
 
I (finally) have a WRF-ARW run of my model going for this threat specifically. It is centered on Jonesboro, Arkansas. I suspect it'll be done between 4 PM and 6 PM, and I'll share the results when it's available.
 
If the NAM is right, Thursday the 3rd might be equally as dangerous a day for the lower MS Valley/mid-South as Wednesday, if not more so. Another shortwave moves through the broad southwest flow, and this one is actually better-defined then Wednesday's, and doesn't almost completely whiff the warm sector off to the north.
 
tornado examiner said:
It’s funny. March 15th was a kind of similar setup to April 27th 2011 on paper and now Wednesday looks a bit like April 3rd 1974.

Is that weird?
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I’ll give you March 15th looked similar to 4/27/11 leading up to the event in a way. However, as we know, it didn’t hit that ceiling.

This one is a bit different than 4/3/74 Synoptics wise. On 4/3/74 you had your main jet core punch directly into the northern part of the warm sector (Indiana, KY, Ohio) and completely overlap it, with a glancing blow to the southern warm sector. If you look at the location of the jet core on Wednesday, it progresses straight over Kansas, up into Iowa, to Michigan. Instead of the warm sector. The low also meanders off into Iowa and Wisconsin.

For bigger severe weather events, I usually like to see that direct punch from the jet core into the warm sector, but that can also be a downside because it means more forcing so more storms.
 
Also on 4/3/74, the jet, along with some daytime heating helped erode the cap. There’s a possibility with the jet core missing the warm sector on Wednesday, some areas could remain capped for quite a while. You’ll have to rely on mesoscale factors vs some kind of SLP or Jet to lift and cool the cap.
 
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