Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[atrainguy]

 

[tornado examiner]

Here’s my take. Diaz is definitely borderline EF5 but cannot be verified.

 

[Gail]

Here are the preliminary ratings for some of the JAN area tornadoes.

 

[AJS]

Here’s my take. Diaz is definitely borderline EF5 but cannot be verified.

We will have to wait and see more damage pics released. Although it most certainly probably reached EF5 strength. If EF5 damage is found, LZK will rate it as such.

 

[buckeye05]

We will have to wait and see more damage pics released. Although it most certainly probably reached EF5 strength. If EF5 damage is found, LZK will rate it as such.

Seeing this sentence and realizing that’s it’s actually probably true is such a weird feeling. How things change…

 

[jiharris0220]

It’s been a good while since we had multiple tornadoes in one single outbreak show extreme damage feats.

 

[AJS]

Seeing this sentence and realizing that’s it’s actually probably true is such a weird feeling. How things change…

Right? Deep down I still feel like the boogeyman is lurking at LZK ready to ruin any survey he gets.

 

[AJS]

It’s been a good while since we had multiple tornadoes in one single outbreak show extreme damage feats.

Been a while since i’ve seen a tornado achieve a feat like this. Since Mayfield honestly.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Gordo AL is supposed to be surveyed today I think.

 

[AJS]

Gordo AL is supposed to be surveyed today I think.

Curious to see what they find!

 

[warneagle]

Gordo AL is supposed to be surveyed today I think.

I thought that velocity signature/TDS was the most impressive of any of the Alabama tornadoes on Saturday so I wouldn't be surprised if that one ended up being EF3+, assuming it was hitting anything substantial during that time.

 

[Maxis_s]

Surprising amount of dry air on these tornadoes. I assume T/Td spreads don't matter for tornadoes as long as their parent storms can become surface based one way or another?

 

[Maxis_s]

Apologies for the doublepost but holy cow. Debris up to 40-45kft on the Diaz, AR tornado. I believe only Greenfield and Washington 2013 have done this but this may even surpass both of them.

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks like this was a really bad tornado event from the news stories, with whole towns being destroyed, so it's scary to think it could have been worse.

 

[ColdFront]

Surprising amount of dry air on these tornadoes. I assume T/Td spreads don't matter for tornadoes as long as their parent storms can become surface based one way or another?

RAP reanalysis can underestimate Temp/Dew which can impact the CAPE value displayed. However, the T/Td spread is well underneath the 20 degree mark which is when LCLs usually become unfavorable.

That’s only 10-12 difference and that can actually be a sweet spot. Also could be why some of the tornados from that night were very visible, a little higher based, and stovepipey if the LCLs weren’t scraping the ground.

 

[ColdFront]

Here was the observed sounding from Little Rock at 0Z Friday night. About as textbook as you’ll see. Also @jiharris0220 , check out this sounding vs what we saw Saturday.

 

[tornado examiner]

It’s unknown if the Diaz tornado is actually being looked at for EF5 right now. No official statement by nws little rock has been made yet.

 

[ColdFront]

It’s unknown if the Diaz tornado is actually being looked at for EF5 right now. No official statement by nws little rock has been made yet.

I mean, I’d doubt they’d come out and say that at this point.

 

[jiharris0220]

Here was the observed sounding from Little Rock at 0Z Friday night. About as textbook as you’ll see. Also @jiharris0220 , check out this sounding vs what we saw Saturday.

View attachment 36631

Yep, Saturday was a drier boundary layer and minor adjustment in trough orientation away from being a super outbreak.

But Friday also could’ve been a super outbreak just by itself if it wasn’t for the very thin parameter space and had it started in the afternoon which would’ve gave this system all day to produce at the rate that it was.

 

[AJS]

It’s unknown if the Diaz tornado is actually being looked at for EF5 right now. No official statement by nws little rock has been made yet.

If damage is found that warrants that rating, it will be rated as such. We just gotta be patient.