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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Justin Hindman said:
One thing I’ve noticed today is the storm motions aren’t moving as fast as forecasted. I thought they would be moving around 60 today, it’s been about 45 bc I caught to the storms and now 15 miles ahead of them
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A lot of that had to do with the jet max being slower than what was modeled. It was back in Texas this morning instead of punching directly into the warm sector at peak start. A lot of the upper level modeling just didn’t pan out
 
Crazy tornado video from Tylertown, MS. A family recorded the tornado striking their house.
 
jiharris0220 said:
All in all, once this blows through, I think it’s safe to say the high risk verified, plenty of significant to potentially violent tornadoes have occurred in Mississippi and at least one in north-western Alabama.

Obviously the room temperature iq weather weenies will be crying about this being a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency because they didn’t get their 4/27 2.0. Too bad “so sad” for them.

Sadly, there has been fatalities with both this and last nights events, it’s truly a shame it came to that outcome.

Fortunately, I believe with the help of advanced warnings, plus the fact these tornadoes have hit low population areas, a higher death toll has been avoided.
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Ultimately, it really does come down to what these tornadoes hit, and in that regard, our luck continues. Some very powerful tornadoes dropped in some very rural areas, and when the dust settles, I think we'll find even more empty slabs than we've seen so far. If any of those tors hit the suburbs or a metro, we'd be having a completely different conversation. Still showing 2000 CAPE in southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, so tonight will be active, albeit over only half the area we expected.

However, the large rain mass and continuous coverage was unexpected based on all the models. I wonder if the wildfires had anything to do with it. It'll also be interesting to see which models came closest to predicting it. I'm looking forward to interesting conversations about which models should be relied on going forward, the amount of emphasis on potential failure modes, MAYBE recalibrating how STP is calculated, etc. This system made a lot of people (especially in this forum) much more educated on severe weather and tornado genesis. Personally, it was what I needed to finally get a grasp on reading soundings. All of this is going to be extremely useful heading into a potentially active tornado season, that is only just getting started.

Every system is a coinflip, and just because we've landed on heads more than tails in the last 12 months, doesn't mean there's a higher chance the next system does. Also, shout out to the SPC for staying objective with their messaging and never straying into over the top hype.
 
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