Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[The Nino]

To summarize, let’s not comment on the event performance until after it’s over.

Done and done.

I mean given the forbidden date comparisons, it’s only natural considering how it’s performed so far…. I’m very happy about that

 

[RollTide18]

Really interested to see what the line does as it moves south and East of 20/59 where there hasn’t been much rain and the sun was out most of the day.

As bad as it’s been today, at least the storms have been a bit messy and linear as opposed to very spread out (please correct me if I’m wrong).

Still, event is far from over and I think things will ramp up as the line fully moves into Alabama.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Tuscaloosa cell wrapping up some

 

[Snipeslayer]

Looks like Atlanta, later tonight, could be extremely violent.

Novice question: if I'm following the hour by hour stp and supercell trending it's reducing the overall involvement for Atlanta. Is that just increasing accuracy closer, or not factoring in accurate intensity in proximity to the storm system itself?

It appears is moves more linear with slightly less super cellular development in front if I'm seeing it correctly. My apologies if it wasn't a great question, still trying to learn.

 

[SilentShadow87]

Again, an event not being a super outbreak does NOT equal being a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency. We've had 3-4 potentially violent tornadoes today. That justifies a high risk. If anything the placement was maybe a bit too far east, but still.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

The Tuscaloosa storm has essentially split. The original circulation that spawned the TDS is the left mover and will probably die off as it has its inflow cut off. The main supercell is developing another mesocylone and inflow is ramping up significantly.

Looked like a pretty classic occlusion/cycle. The old circulation apparently produced right as it occluded, curling off to the left while the "main" meso closer to Coker looked more prominent on the velocity product, but wasn't actively producing.

 

[TornadoFan]

New supercell south of Hammond, LA?

 

[MikeP]

Cloud heights on the Tuscaloosa supercell have increased as the updraft strengthens. View attachment 36251

Great image.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Once again, new HRRR run, new CAPE increases.

Here is the 19z simulation of 20z


Here is 20z actual. Getting into the 4000s now.



We're not seeing tornadoes though, so maybe i'm just misinterpreting it.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

A tornado maybe imminent from the Tuscaloosa cell.

 

[Clancy]

AL storm getting ready to drop again.

 

[TornadoFan]

Brad Arnold reporting a bowl funnel in front of him.

 

[US_Highway15]

Very interesting comparing the environments of central Alabama (around Birmingham), compared to south central Alabama.

Birmingham:



Oak Hill:

 

[ColdFront]

Once again, new HRRR run, new CAPE increases.

Here is the 19z simulation of 20z
View attachment 36252

Here is 20z actual. Getting into the 4000s now.

View attachment 36253

We're not seeing tornadoes though, so maybe i'm just misinterpreting it.

At this point I would get the parameters from the SPC Mesoscale page vs the HRRR

 

[UncleJuJu98]

AL storm getting ready to drop again.

I think it may take off, nothing to ingest after the last little bit of convection that it did.

 

[AJS]

I think it may take off, nothing to ingest after the last little bit of convection that it did.

Very likely about to develop a tornado.

 

[MikeP]

Hope folks in Jasper are on their toes....

 

[Clancy]

Healthy inflow on Alabama cell. Looks capable.

 

[AJS]

Here we go.

 

[ColdFront]

Everything back in Mississippi is starting to congeal, so any supercells will probably be embedded as they work through Alabama