Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[kcyalater]

That is absolutely the right call by the SPC and I know Wx Twitter will be up in arms over it. But it’s the correct call, especially with what we have seen so far.

things have gone about as well as you could hope so far.

convective mode is very messy and there’s not a lot of organization YET.

 

[MoonBaby]

I work there. Will be headed in this afternoon for night shift

You’re honestly safer there than anywhere else. So that’s not a bad thing.

 

[ColdFront]

things have gone about as well as you could hope so far.

convective mode is very messy and there’s not a lot of organization YET.

Very messy in western Mississippi. Will see if OWS cells can form. That’s your dangerous scenario that I believe the SPC is looking at.

It does no good to have sky high parameters if supercells keep cutting each other off or running into each other.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

That is absolutely the right call by the SPC and I know Wx Twitter will be up in arms over it. But it’s the correct call, especially with what we have seen so far.

The biggest threat doesn't ramp up until 3-6 pm Est.

 

[AJS]

The biggest threat doesn't ramp up until 3-6 pm Est.

Was just thinking that. It’s still a bit early on from what the peak activity was forecasted to be.

 

[shrubber256]

How close are you to Browns Ferry?
I have friends up there (Florence and Huntsville) and we always just assume the plant will blow up (it won’t) but it’s become a weird sarcastic ongoing joke

I’m on the East side of Athens, between 72 and HSV Brownsferry.

 

[US_Highway15]

The earlier 0Z run simulated reflectivity is almost perfect for right now.

View attachment 36045View attachment 36046

Looking back, you're 100% correct. If that's the case, interested to see if any supercells develop behind the current band later here in the next few hours.

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

The earlier 0Z run simulated reflectivity is almost perfect for right now.

View attachment 36045View attachment 36046

I forgot if the 0z was a real bad run or not

 

[sak]

could possibly be a more linear event across northern MS into the TN valley of AL and a cellular event across central/southern MS into central AL. If that ended up occurring, SPC would have nailed the placement of the high risk.

 

[US_Highway15]

could possibly be a more linear event across northern MS into the TN valley of AL and a cellular event across central/southern MS into central AL. If that ended up occurring, SPC would have nailed the placement of the high risk.

They're the professionals for a reason after all.

 

[Ledian]

It's thundering now. Looking at radar in my area, looks like it might be too much of a mess for any discrete tornadoes to be a threat, so i suppose that's good?

 

[jiharris0220]

 

[AJS]

That has “ The look. “

 

[jiharris0220]

 

[US_Highway15]

Current enviornmental readings on SPC Hourly Mescoscale from Tuscaloosa.

 

[AJS]

I’m pretty confident if they wouldn’t have gone high yesterday, this wouldn’t be a high risk right now. Just way too messy with way too many issues. They upgraded the wrong day.

Agreed. Then again; it is still pretty early on.

 

[jiharris0220]

Would be ironic if yesterday should’ve been the high risk and today the moderate.

But big day setups usually start out messy, it takes a while for cells to mature and centralize into more discrete modes.

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

That has “ The look. “

A lot of significant granulation there. Definitely looks to be an upper end tornado

 

[Kds86z]

I was thinking earlier, been a while for Missouri with higher tornadic fatalities

 

[Kds86z]

Starting to wonder if the SPC may have jumped the gun; looks a bit messy out there now. Then again, they are the professionals.

… patience my friend.