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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Clancy said:
With fair spacing, these confluence band cells have some serious potential. Hoping they grow upscale but for now they are spaced out.
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That’s a scary look. If they stay on that perpendicular north east track absolutely could be major producers. If they veer in a more northward direction, they’re going to run smack dab into that complex
 
SmokeEater said:
Nothing is downtrending....
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I don’t know if you can really say that with a high degree of confidence. We have SPC Mets on Twitter raising questions about Storm mode. There are absolutely still failure modes today. Now those fail modes probably still result in a pretty sizable tornado outbreak but that doesn’t mean this will reach its ceiling.
 
US_Highway15 said:
I don't have X. Someone care to summarize the thread for me?
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Basically, his main concern about today not reaching its ceiling is overcrowding in the warm sector. If a discrete/semi-discrete storm mode can materialize and maintain itself into the afternoon and evening, intense, long tracked tornadoes are likely. He also voiced his concern about an uptick in tornado potential tonight as storms move from East Alabama into Georgia.
 
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Muwx said:
I don’t know if you can really say that with a high degree of confidence. We have SPC Mets on Twitter raising questions about Storm mode. There are absolutely still failure modes today. Now those fail modes probably still result in a pretty sizable tornado outbreak but that doesn’t mean this will reach its ceiling.
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Agreed. do you care to link those? Was it Marsh or Bentley?
 
ColdFront said:
That’s a scary look. If they stay on that perpendicular north east track absolutely could be major producers. If they veer in a more northward direction, they’re going to run smack dab into that complex
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One thing I'm noticing on that QLCS is that those updrafts in there are sustaining themselves despite significant quasi-linearization. That concerns me.
 
Muwx said:
I don’t know if you can really say that with a high degree of confidence. We have SPC Mets on Twitter raising questions about Storm mode. There are absolutely still failure modes today. Now those fail modes probably still result in a pretty sizable tornado outbreak but that doesn’t mean this will reach its ceiling.
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There are always failure modes. That doesn't mean anything is 'downtrending'. SPC just literally issued a PDS watch with 95/95 probabilities.
 
Muwx said:
I don’t know if you can really say that with a high degree of confidence. We have SPC Mets on Twitter raising questions about Storm mode. There are absolutely still failure modes today. Now those fail modes probably still result in a pretty sizable tornado outbreak but that doesn’t mean this will reach its ceiling.
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I think we can say this has the potential to be a historic day, as the SPC's own MD says, regardless what folks on twitter say. Saying things are "downtrending" leads to complacency and folks not taking this threat seriously, which is irresponsible.
 
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