Archive March 18-20th, 2018 Severe Weather

[Bama Ravens]

We have a lot of clouds across North MS/AL.

Yep, very overcast and pretty cool in Birmingham right now.

 

[Bama Ravens]

this is the updraft helicity off of the 11z HRRR. It seems to have the AL/GA border as the hotspot for rotating storms.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

High res models indicate that central Georgia should have been included in the enhanced risk.

 

[Weatherphreak]

this is the updraft helicity off of the 11z HRRR. It seems to have the AL/GA border as the hotspot for rotating storms.

I realize this is just a model but if that band in North Alabama were to verify you’d have a tornado go across a major population area in south Huntsville and Owens Crossroads.

 

[Equus]

Cool and overcast near Jasper, had a weakening storm pass just north of here. When the sun returns, I assume it's game on.

 

[Kory]

Central Tennessee looks like the bullseye right now. IF there will be any upgraded area, it will likely be this region.

 

[The Nino]

this event feels odd for me (near the hsv area). Cool, cloudy, barely no southerly wind...just doesn't feel like the typical severe weather day...guess the dynamics and instability will be rolling thru later on today?

 

[Xenesthis]

Central Tennessee looks like the bullseye right now. IF there will be any upgraded area, it will likely be this region.

Unfortunately I agree... I am just east of Murfreesboro by about 40 miles. The sun is poking out here and it’s 55.

 

[Brandon]

Still mid to upper 50s and thick cloud cover just outside of HSV. It certainly doesn't feel like one of those bad days just yet.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

High res models indicate that central Georgia should have been included in the enhanced risk.

The Enhanced was extended ever so slightly East to include the Atlanta metro. If an upgrade occurs, I could see the MDT being over some portion of Southern Tennessee, Northeast AL, and perhaps into Northwest Georgia. With the Enhanced being extended further South into Central Georgia by a row or two of counties.

 

[Bamamuscle]

Will the cloud cover put a damper on this thing?


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[MattW]

HRRR has been wanting to pop some tornadic storms ahead of the main event between Palmetto and Columbus, GA the past few runs. One on the 12z looks big and goes through Henry County.

 

[ARCC]

And then IF we go get breaks in the clouds, we have a big dry tongue at 850mb moving NE over LA. That could spell trouble with mixing. I have a lot of reservations right now.

By far my biggest question right now as well. Mixing could really hamper the tornadic potential. Happened a bunch of times too in setups like this.

 

[Mike S]

Will the cloud cover put a damper on this thing?


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maybe if it persists.

 

[Bama Ravens]

There is thick cloud cover all the way back into AR and LA. Probably thins out/dissipates later, but if we could get it to hold tough, it would be great.

 

[Richardjacks]

I think knowing where any meso boundaries setup is key. That cold spark storms earlier, or even add low level shear. The low clouds and fog may be slower to clear out of northwest Al which could create a boundary...or it could be eas of there...something to keep an eye on.

 

[rolltide_130]

There is thick cloud cover all the way back into AR and LA. Probably thins out/dissipates later, but if we could get it to hold tough, it would be great.

It's not going to be a factor. The biggest concerns are boundary placement and any veering/drying out of the 850 winds.

 

[Kory]

Latest NAM and HRRR are trying to fire off some showers/storms ahead of the main boundary. Something to keep an eye on. This tells me the models aren't seeing mixing as a factor...

 

[Richardjacks]

It's not going to be a factor. The biggest concerns are boundary placement and any veering/drying out of the 850 winds.

absolutely...the area of rain in northern Miss is traveling east and will likely keep the clouds in longer for extreme northern of Alabama, south of there could be the hot zone.

 

[rolltide_130]

absolutely...the area of rain in northern Miss is traveling east and will likely keep the clouds in longer for extreme northern of Alabama, souther of there could be the hot zone.

I do think that the bullseye WON'T be in central TN up near Nashville due to the ongoing convection in that area. I think it will be further south towards the AL/TN border..

As for the cloud cover, once we get out from under the anvil seeding of the current complex near the MS River, things should clear out pretty fast. That's causing a really high, thick later that the sun can't penetrate through. It should be able to dry out the low level clouds quickly if it can reach them.