Archive March 18-20th, 2018 Severe Weather

[rolltide_130]

Yeah. Front hauling tail now trough central Arkansas ... think timing gets moved up bit....

That's not the front, that's a prefontal area of convergence.

 

[Xenesthis]

How do you all feel about the storms moving through the AL/TN state line right now?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

That's not the front, that's a prefontal area of convergence.

My bad. Your right. ....

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

How do you all feel about the storms moving through the AL/TN state line right now?

Think could be a good breathing ground for setting up some boundary layers this afternoon....

 

[akt1985]

I was watching The Weather Channel this morning. Jim Cantore is back in Atlanta, not in Athens, Alabama.

 

[Xenesthis]

Think could be a good breathing ground for setting up some boundary layers this afternoon....

Ding Ding Ding we have a winner.... Jk aha but seriously that was the point I was making

 

[Kory]

We have a lot of clouds across North MS/AL.

 

[rolltide_130]

We have a lot of clouds across North MS/AL.

Caught under the anvils of the complex in Arkansas. As that moves off to the northeast it clears out FAST just to the south of the anvil.

 

[Xenesthis]

We have a lot of clouds across North MS/AL.

And TN!!!! Maybe the SPC has it right this time

 

[Argus]

We have breaks in the clouds in northeast Georgia. Sun is out now.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

And TN!!!! Maybe the SPC has it right this time

Low deck clouds here also course west tn going miss brunt cause timing issues... but current conditions here 49 temp 49 dp 100 humidity. Column is saturated as now. Still gonna ne wind here ...

 

[Kory]

And then IF we go get breaks in the clouds, we have a big dry tongue at 850mb moving NE over LA. That could spell trouble with mixing. I have a lot of reservations right now.

 

[Xenesthis]

And then IF we go get breaks in the clouds, we have a big dry tongue at 850mb moving NE over LA. That could spell trouble with mixing. I have a lot of reservations right now.

So do you have the feeling like I do that this might be an underperforming event or not an event at all... personally I just don't see that dry spot making it here in time to cause problems

 

[Kory]

So do you have the feeling like I do that this might be an underperforming event or not an event at all... personally I just don't see that dry spot making it here in time to cause problems

Not sure if I'll call it underperforming, but I think it will be a more localized event where we get better moisture pooling right along the boundary and where low level winds will cooperate. The later the storms initiate, the more the winds veer. This dry tongue will probably cap a lot of convection across the warm sector during the day, thus reducing a confluence band threat, leaving the main threat right along the boundary. We'll have to see.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

And then IF we go get breaks in the clouds, we have a big dry tongue at 850mb moving NE over LA. That could spell trouble with mixing. I have a lot of reservations right now

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

5 minutes spc. Updates...

 

[Equus]

Appears to be still Enhanced.

 

[rolltide_130]

No upgrade but they did mention possibility of an upgrade on the next one. They want to wait until 12z data is in before making an upgrade decision.

 

[South AL Wx]

Still enhanced on the latest Day 1 Outlook. SPC does says that an upgrade is possible:

Enough uncertainties
remain to preclude more tightly focused/higher probabilities at this
time, though an upgrade of part of this area may be needed as
mesoscale diagnostic tendencies and 12Z guidance inform update
decisions.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Still surprised, but I can't blame them for playing it conservative given the uncertainties mentioned. This is one of those cases that would probably be Moderate before the Enhanced category existed. This allows them to highlight the area of greater risk within the otherwise Slight risk area without pulling the trigger on a Moderate just yet.

Although the terminology can be confusing to those who don't understand NWS/SPC wording, I think the additional categories help emphasize that a Moderate risk is much more serious than its name implies by having it be level 4 on a 5-point scale instead of level 2 on a 3-point scale.