Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[tornado examiner]

I've noticed a trend on the radar. The storms are racing to the northeast over the same area, but not moving much east at all.

That’s a bad sign. Like i said, cold front smash is not likely. It’s still stationary for now.

 

[jiharris0220]

Yeah I am fairly sure that cap is stronger than what was progged at least for this hour.

It’s strong enough to keep the crap out, but weak and shallow enough to only let through strong updrafts.

 

[ColdFront]

Yeah I am fairly sure that cap is stronger than what was progged at least for this hour.

Yeah definetly, kind of expected after yesterday’s soundings as well. I’m sure as WAA continues, that moist layer will rise too.

 

[wx_guy]

So I fell asleep hard last night because I plan to be awake tonight for my friends and family in eastern AL. Can anyone give me a cliff notes version of what transpired last night?

 

[Clancy]

Not enjoying the look of this at all. A lot of little cells developing NW of Lafayette.

 

[Maxis_s]

So I fell asleep hard last night because I plan to be awake tonight for my friends and family in eastern AL. Can anyone give me a cliff notes version of what transpired last night?

Hell.

 

[Clancy]

So I fell asleep hard last night because I plan to be awake tonight for my friends and family in eastern AL. Can anyone give me a cliff notes version of what transpired last night?

Multiple intense tornadoes in Missouri and Arkansas, and a monster in Mississippi.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Multiple intense tornadoes in Missouri and Arkansas, and a monster in Mississippi.

I didn't get to see the Mississippi one i fell asleep for that one, my friend told me about it, is there any velocity screenshots for that one?

 

[Richardjacks]

It’s strong enough to keep the crap out, but weak and shallow enough to only let through strong updrafts.

That's what I am thinking...not good.

 

[tornado examiner]

So I fell asleep hard last night because I plan to be awake tonight for my friends and family in eastern AL. Can anyone give me a cliff notes version of what transpired last night?

Basically, 6 or 7 different semi training but super discrete supercells drop a multitude of long track strong tornadoes for 6 hours straight.

 

[ColdFront]

Also observed sounding from LIX showing a CAP similar to JAN

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

So what is the thinking here of the last few HRRR runs being a bit more linear? A trend or a bad run?

 

[tornado examiner]

So what is the thinking here of the last few HRRR runs being a bit more linear? A trend or a bad run?

Irrelevant almost ignorable run, seems unlikely as the cold front hasn’t moved yet

 

[wx_guy]

So what is the thinking here of the last few HRRR runs being a bit more linear? A trend or a bad run?

The HRRR and any model is of mostly little use at this point, because most of the storms will be dictated based on tiny mesoscale and boundary interactions today that the models can't see. It's a nowcast time.

 

[hurricaneguy]

Morning! Short rest is over. Trying to catch up. Any indication so far if a 45 tornado will be added later?

 

[tornado examiner]

Also the Louisiana storm may have a tornado down. Cc drop

 

[Bulkshear]

Well I am trying to explain to people here in TN that we are under a threat and the response I am getting is the threat is south of us in AL and it will rain on and off all day so we don’t have to worry about it. Yeah that’s the response I got from my own family

 

[Richardjacks]

The HRRR and any model is of mostly little use at this point, because most of the storms will be dictated based on tiny mesoscale and boundary interactions today that the models can't see. It's a nowcast time.

Also the hrr doesn't show much of a cap like we are seeing...so the first/leading convection it shows prob isnt going to happen

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Also the Louisiana storm may have a tornado down. Cc drop

Which one there's three tornado warnings

 

[ColdFront]

The HRRR and any model is of mostly little use at this point, because most of the storms will be dictated based on tiny mesoscale and boundary interactions today that the models can't see. It's a nowcast time.

That, and the HRRR has been doing that since last night. The SPC probably believes the OWS is going to open up vs what the HRRR has been showing.