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Severe WX Severe Weather Threats 1/21-1/22 2017 (Saturday - Sunday)

So the 0z GFS has trended toward the NAM with the instability being stronger and lasting later into Sunday morning-for example until around 6am BHM. It even shows a trough in the isobars creating surface backed winds. Also showing precip breaking out further north. I just got to wonder if the current forecast products I am seeing need some adjustments further north and later.
 
Large Hatched area over SE GA, FL, Carolinas day 2. Day 1 not out yet.
Thanks those responsible for bringing this board back btw :)

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE TO EASTERN NC...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM AL TO
SOUTHERN VA...

..SUMMARY

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
SUNDAY.

..SOUTHEASTERN US

LATEST NAM GUIDANCE IS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODELS IN
THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG UPPER LOW AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF STATES AND MATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. 110KT+ 500MB SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO
TRANSLATE ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA BY
23/00Z. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENCOURAGE A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP AND
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN GA WITH SUBSEQUENT DEEPENING EXPECTED
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AFTER DARK. THIS IS A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT EVOLUTION AS A STRONG LLJ WILL TRANSPORT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WELL INLAND AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE FROM
180M-240M LATE IN THE PERIOD AND VERY STRONG FORCING SHOULD ASSIST A
WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE THAT SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY THEN RACE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SPEED MAX. VERY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
WITH FAST-MOVING BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES. WHILE A SQUALL LINE APPEARS
TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE MODE, THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE STRUCTURES DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINEAR MCS.

FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA, WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THIS REGION, SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS AND A
SECONDARY MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA
LATE. CURRENT THINKING IS A FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL EASILY DEVELOP
AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. DAMAGING WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION,
ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES.
 

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The GFS coming in line with the NAM and the uptick in severe parameters on the NAM is very concerning. This is going to be a nasty nasty Saturday night and Sunday morning event. The amount of instability in place at such late night is impressive! These very steep lapse rates are going to make for some mean storms!
 
Interesting looking convective outlook for Saturday (valid starting st 6am CST)

AL_swody1.png
 
Bama Ravens said:
Interesting looking convective outlook for Saturday (valid starting st 6am CST)
Click to expand...

I kinda wonder if the threat level across S AL/N FL is mainly just for the #1 part of the discussion but would be higher if the overnight #3 portion were high confidence. Models show some higher number overnight Sat if storms form in the first place. Their confidence is thankfully low and I for one hope the models are wrong and its a quiet night. Ridiculous STP on the NAM 4k over GA/FL for Sunday .
 
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM CST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN CHOCTAW...NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN WAYNE
COUNTIES...

At 429 AM CST, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 7
miles west of Clara, or 13 miles southwest of Waynesboro, moving
northeast at 50 mph.
Click to expand...
 
Richardjacks said:
BMX n has an enhanced risk across part of NW Alabama tonight, north and west of Bham. I would post a pic but haven't figure out where to uplink yet.
Click to expand...
Above where you type your post, you'll see all of the different font, link, etc. options. You'll see a little smiley face, right beside it is a little picture icon. That's where you go to paste the image addresss.
 
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