Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[Tanner]

We know eventually the EF5 drought will end. I always get that sick feeling prior to an event like this thinking will this be the one.

This upcoming event certainly supports those higher-end tornadoes.

 

[Richardjacks]

Regardless of how this makes us feel...i.am in that boat too, there are some similarities with 4/27, you can't deny that. So, if we are really going to go there, remember the uncertainty on the 26th? It was about the morning convection, and models were kind of everywhere with it from little to nothing....and i don't remember a model that really got the morning convection right. Maybe close, but not on it. I feel like that's where we are right now.

 

[Justin Hindman]

I can almost guarantee you no high risk on day 2, however I guarantee you a high risk for Saturday lol.

 

[Richardjacks]

I can almost guarantee you no high risk on day 2, however I guarantee you a high risk for Saturday lol.

Yesh i ageee, just too much uncertainty with Day 2

 

[cg9450]

I almost feel like a surgeon who has been working on a patient that died on the table. You just throw your hands up, look at the clock, and call it.

 

[Brice W]

I almost feel like a surgeon who has been working on a patient that died on the table. You just throw your hands up, look at the clock, and call it.

Yeah. I think that’s the worst feeling because there is nothing you can do to stop it.

 

[MMWX]

There might be a lot of chasers too given the significance of this event. These storm are most likely going to be rain wrapped and very low-surface based storms. I just hope people take into account that your life is more important than a swirl of wind.

Anyone chasing this event has a death wish. I understand the fascination of chasing. I hope to chase in the MS Delta (where you aren't dealing with literal forests) once or twice before the year is over.

Chasing this event is stupid, irresponsible, and dangerous toward yourself and the other vehicles on the road who may be trying to flee a certain area.

 

[The Colonel]

Regardless of how this makes us feel...i.am in that boat too, there are some similarities with 4/27, you can't deny that. So, if we are really going to go there, remember the uncertainty on the 26th? It was about the morning convection, and models were kind of everywhere with it from little to nothing....and i don't remember a model that really got the morning convection right. Maybe close, but not on it. I feel like that's where we are right now.

People can say what they want publicly, on air, on record, .etc about the severity of how to warn people. At least in Birmingham it has been made clear on all events prior that this “is not like anything in 2011”. Because it’s the high water mark.

Well, the closer we get to it, we are now getting more “similar” than “less similar” and at some point someone will have to begin to introduce this. It’s the only way to convey the messaging properly - given the severity of what could possibly (likely?) happen.

What will be interesting to me is not so much who does it (because I think Mets locally are going to let the old wise man Spann call the shot honestly) unless it comes from NWS first. And more importantly, when.

 

[Clancy]

Well, after seeing the WRFs, my timbers are most definitely shivered. Only seeing the beginning of the main event on both, and it looks terrible.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Yesh i ageee, just too much uncertainty with Day 2

Day 2 is gaining steam though large moderate incoming think… if trends continue. A high risk not out question. … keep eye on short range tomorrow … caping issues are leaving

 

[The Nino]

Anyone catch what Brad Travis had to say? I missed it, curious what his take is for north Alabama

 

[Clancy]

Chasing this event is stupid, irresponsible, and dangerous toward yourself and the other vehicles on the road who may be trying to flee a certain area.

And you know for a fact there's gonna be hundreds of amateurs doing exactly that on Saturday.

 

[Clancy]

This should be hung on a wall somewhere as far as model runs go. Terrifying.

 

[Brice W]

And you know for a fact there's gonna be hundreds of amateurs doing exactly that on Saturday.

Those are the ones Im talking about. Cause they’re thinking “HIGH RISK, let’s go chase!” Like @TornadoFan17 said, its a death wish and this is honestly one of the most dangerous events to chase in a long time.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I can almost guarantee you no high risk on day 2, however I guarantee you a high risk for Saturday lol.

If it goes high , it be later tomorrow afternoon. Update. Day. Each cam run getting more super celluar enem more discrete looking

 

[Justin Hindman]

I’m

Anyone chasing this event has a death wish. I understand the fascination of chasing. I hope to chase in the MS Delta (where you aren't dealing with literal forests) once or twice before the year is over.

Chasing this event is stupid, irresponsible, and dangerous toward yourself and the other vehicles on the road who may be trying to flee a certain area.

well I guess I’m stupid lol. I plan to be safe, got a drone to live stream . Not gonna try to get to these monsters

 

[cg9450]

I’m

well I guess I’m stupid lol. I plan to be safe, got a drone to live stream . Not gonna try to get to these monsters

Stupid people don't know they're stupid

but yeah you might be (jk please be so safe)

 

[WeatherDan]

It’s easy to get overwhelmed by the scale of what’s coming, the models, the wording from respected colleagues and experts, the sheer energy in the atmosphere. But at this point, all you can do is focus on what’s within your control.

Stay level-headed. Communicate clearly. Help spread vital information without panic or sensationalism. If you're in a position to educate, make sure people understand the risks and the steps they need to take to stay safe. If you're chasing, prioritize safety, for yourself and for others.

So take a breath, do what you can, and remember: preparation and awareness save lives.

 

[Brice W]

It’s easy to get overwhelmed by the scale of what’s coming, the models, the wording from respected colleagues and experts, the sheer energy in the atmosphere. But at this point, all you can do is focus on what’s within your control.

Stay level-headed. Communicate clearly. Help spread vital information without panic or sensationalism. If you're in a position to educate, make sure people understand the risks and the steps they need to take to stay safe. If you're chasing, prioritize safety, for yourself and for others.

So take a breath, do what you can, and remember: preparation and awareness save lives.

This deserves a pin.

 

[hurricaneguy]

Anyone chasing the next 48 hrs please be safe. I was in college during 04/27. My parents moved from Tuscaloosa that January. I told my mom the day before if they still lived there I’d be heading down to stay with them and set up near the mall to watch the radar the monster almost hit. Still to this day get the creeps how close I could have been to extreme danger.