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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

wx_guy said:
IF (and it is a big IF given it's 48 hours out) the HRRR were to verify closely, are there any analogs you'd compare it to? Honestly?
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That is a truly good, and challenging question. I mentioned it before, but Easter 2020 comes to mind. It's not exactly the same by any means, but it did feature that mass of rain moving northwards all the way through the afternoon, while line-embedded and discrete, mixed-mode supercells produced strong tornadoes to the SW and propagated NE, continuing to produce EF-2+ tornadoes well into the night all the way into GA and TN. To me that seems like a reasonable match to the convective evolution featured on the 00Z HRRR.
 
wx_guy said:
IF (and it is a big IF given it's 48 hours out) the HRRR were to verify closely, are there any analogs you'd compare it to? Honestly?
Click to expand...
Easter 2020 Seems like a no brainer, given the convection and chaos it had that day. I see this threat being higher than that. I also see it comparable to 4/28/14 because of the supercellular line the models are showing .
 
Clancy said:
That is a truly good, and challenging question. I mentioned it before, but Easter 2020 comes to mind. It's not exactly the same by any means, but it did feature that mass of rain moving northwards all the way through the afternoon, while line-embedded and discrete, mixed-mode supercells produced strong tornadoes to the SW and propagated NE, continuing to produce EF-2+ tornadoes well into the night all the way into GA and TN. To me that seems like a reasonable match to the convective evolution featured on the 00Z HRRR.
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Couple ef4s no?
 
Clancy said:
That is a truly good, and challenging question. I mentioned it before, but Easter 2020 comes to mind. It's not exactly the same by any means, but it did feature that mass of rain moving northwards all the way through the afternoon, while line-embedded and discrete, mixed-mode supercells produced strong tornadoes to the SW and propagated NE, continuing to produce EF-2+ tornadoes well into the night all the way into GA and TN. To me that seems like a reasonable match to the convective evolution featured on the 00Z HRRR.
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I’m gonna say it again. Great minds think alike :)
 
AJS said:
My memory may be a little bit fuzzy so i’m not sure how accurate this statement will be, but a lot of the soundings and lead up to this setup remind me a lot of March 31 2023.
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Moisture was a little on the lower side but still very supportive for strong-intense tornadoes. The trough wasn’t as negatively tilted as this one. And there was many other similarities.
 
JPWX said:
I know one thing I'll definitely be doing this weekend:

Snow White Coffee GIF


Goodnight guys!
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I personally have to thank Monster Energy for existing.
 
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